Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman57]

I see that overnight models have trended warmer for SE TX and south LA. Temps above freezing until after the precip ends late Sunday morning. Looks like I won't be using my generator. Haven't looked at the situation up in D-FW area. You'll definitely be colder up there with winter precip. Not much time to post this morning.

[Gotwood]

FWIW, early frames of the 06z Hi-Res models seem to both keep the bulk of the precip with the initial round Friday evening - Saturday Morning along the Red River and NE, as well as align with the NAM's depiction for surface temps.

Yeah the temp profile on the NAM is brutal. I guess we are about to see if the cold air busts out the models or not.

[Brazoria979cnty]

I see that overnight models have trended warmer for SE TX and south LA. Temps above freezing until after the precip ends late Sunday morning. Looks like I won't be using my generator. Haven't looked at the situation up in D-FW area. You'll definitely be colder up there with winter precip. Not much time to post this morning.

are we even a little surprised lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I see that overnight models have trended warmer for SE TX and south LA. Temps above freezing until after the precip ends late Sunday morning. Looks like I won't be using my generator. Haven't looked at the situation up in D-FW area. You'll definitely be colder up there with winter precip. Not much time to post this morning.

Good news for SE Tx. If temps tank down to where they are predicted, the grid may still have some issues until the sun lights up the solar panels the morning after. It's very good news that the southern half of the state will not be as cold as 2021 or 2022, but the northern half will be exceptionally cold.

[snownado]

FWIW, early frames of the 06z Hi-Res models seem to both keep the bulk of the precip with the initial round Friday evening - Saturday Morning along the Red River and NE, as well as align with the NAM's depiction for surface temps.

Yeah the temp profile on the NAM is brutal. I guess we are about to see if the cold air busts out the models or not.

"Brutal" is certainly one way to describe it. If we can minimize icing impacts with both warmer temps and more showery coverage of precip, that's a good thing.

[Portastorm]

Wow did the overnight model guidance NWS uses ever get warmer! Last night, it showed my area (Round Rock) hitting freezing around 3 am Saturday. Now, it is showing us hitting freezing 18 hours later! Less freezing rain for us which is a good thing.

[Gotwood]

FWIW, early frames of the 06z Hi-Res models seem to both keep the bulk of the precip with the initial round Friday evening - Saturday Morning along the Red River and NE, as well as align with the NAM's depiction for surface temps.

Yeah the temp profile on the NAM is brutal. I guess we are about to see if the cold air busts out the models or not.

"Brutal" is certainly one way to describe it. If we can minimize icing impacts with both warmer temps and more showery coverage of precip, that's a good thing.

My usage of brutal is to indicate a forecast bust. Just yesterday we were talking about freezing line getting through DFW around 6-8pm and now we are looking at maybe 3-6 am. And temps stay close to freezing which would indicate more freezing rain.

[snownado]

Yeah the temp profile on the NAM is brutal. I guess we are about to see if the cold air busts out the models or not.

"Brutal" is certainly one way to describe it. If we can minimize icing impacts with both warmer temps and more showery coverage of precip, that's a good thing.

My usage of brutal is to indicate a forecast bust. Just yesterday we were talking about freezing line getting through DFW around 6-8pm and now we are looking at maybe mid morning?

Ah, gotcha...

[HockeyTx82]

I see some posts about DFW "busting" now......

Some model chaos or are we close enough to buy it?

Maybe that data that was ingested from the recon is showing up?

[HockeyTx82]

"Brutal" is certainly one way to describe it. If we can minimize icing impacts with both warmer temps and more showery coverage of precip, that's a good thing.

My usage of brutal is to indicate a forecast bust. Just yesterday we were talking about freezing line getting through DFW around 6-8pm and now we are looking at maybe mid morning?

Ah, gotcha...

Are you talking about mid-morning on Friday or mid morning on Saturday? Texas is a big state I'm trying to understand where everybody's focus is.....

[snownado]

My usage of brutal is to indicate a forecast bust. Just yesterday we were talking about freezing line getting through DFW around 6-8pm and now we are looking at maybe mid morning?

Ah, gotcha...

Are you talking about mid-morning on Friday or mid morning on Saturday? Texas is a big state I'm trying to understand where everybody's focus is.....

I was just sharing what the early frame of the various Hi-Res mdoels show from the 06z runs through Saturday morning with the first wave of precipitation.

Temp-wise, they're similar to the NAM (on the warmer end) and the greater precipitation coverage is north/NE of DFW (into Southern OK, Texoma and Texarkana)

The intent wasn't to suggest what will or won't happen, but rather share more data for possible outcomes.

[Fifty Rock]

My usage of brutal is to indicate a forecast bust. Just yesterday we were talking about freezing line getting through DFW around 6-8pm and now we are looking at maybe mid morning?

Ah, gotcha...

Are you talking about mid-morning on Friday or mid morning on Saturday? Texas is a big state I'm trying to understand where everybody's focus is.....

STORM2K OFFICIAL BULLETIN

Meltdown Warning
Issued by: Storm2k Center for Emotional Stability and Model Behavior
Status: UPGRADED TO WARNING

The Storm2k Center has issued a Meltdown Warning, we skipped WATCH, for the Texas Winter forum effective immediately. This upgrade is due to rapidly deteriorating model composure and increasing signs of community instability.

SITUATION OVERVIEW
Recent observations indicate that the long‑range guidance suite has begun to wobble, stutter, and generally behave like it forgot what season it is. Forecast confidence has dropped faster than a 384‑hour snow map posted without context.

Meanwhile, the high‑resolution models, which could theoretically save us, remain outside their wheelhouse, staring blankly at the situation like they just woke up from a nap.

CONFIRMED INDICATORS OF MELTDOWN
- Long‑range guidance is now issuing forecasts with the accuracy of a Magic 8‑Ball.
- Short‑range models are still stretching, yawning, and insisting they’ll “be ready in a few runs.”
- Posters are beginning to refresh pages at unsafe speeds.
- Several users have already declared the storm “dead,” “back,” “dead again,” and “historic” within the same hour.
- The phrase “I’m not panicking, YOU’RE panicking” has been detected in multiple threads.

EXPECTED IMPACTS
- Elevated levels of doomposting and hopium may occur simultaneously.
- Thread temperatures may rise sharply despite the actual temperatures falling.
- Increased risk of users posting outdated model frames labeled “JUST LOOK AT THIS.”
- Wxman57 may be spotted shaking his head from a safe distance.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Secure all loose emotions and tie down any expectations.
- Avoid staring directly at long‑range snowfall maps.
- Keep hydration nearby for rapid‑fire F5 key usage.
- Prepare for sudden shifts in tone, ranging from “It’s over” to “We’re saved” within minutes.

This will be updated as model tendencies and swings warrant.
11 likes
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real foreca

[funster]

There's so much moisture with this setup I'm not sure it makes much difference whether it drops below freezing at 10 pm Friday or early am Saturday. Might get 4 inches of sleet instead of 6. And possibly more yucky frzg rain. Being without power when its 10 degrees isn't fun so hopefully not. Talking metroplex situation in this scenario. A later changeover might make a bigger difference to the south.

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS is holding serve, we will see what models bring today.

[CaptinCrunch]

Still over 48hrs away, the better hi-rez models will be tonight into Friday morning. Remember models do not handle the sub-freezing air at the surface at all, and that is what we need to see because that is how the ice will start before the cold air thickens and we see the change over to sleet/snow.

I expect slight shifts in the forcast a few more times before the event starts, 100 miles either direction will change the forecast for everyone.

[HockeyTx82]

Ah, gotcha...

Are you talking about mid-morning on Friday or mid morning on Saturday? Texas is a big state I'm trying to understand where everybody's focus is.....

STORM2K OFFICIAL BULLETIN

Meltdown Warning
Issued by: Storm2k Center for Emotional Stability and Model Behavior
Status: UPGRADED TO WARNING

The Storm2k Center has issued a Meltdown Warning, we skipped WATCH, for the Texas Winter forum effective immediately. This upgrade is due to rapidly deteriorating model composure and increasing signs of community instability.

SITUATION OVERVIEW
Recent observations indicate that the long‑range guidance suite has begun to wobble, stutter, and generally behave like it forgot what season it is. Forecast confidence has dropped faster than a 384‑hour snow map posted without context.

Meanwhile, the high‑resolution models, which could theoretically save us, remain outside their wheelhouse, staring blankly at the situation like they just woke up from a nap.

CONFIRMED INDICATORS OF MELTDOWN
- Long‑range guidance is now issuing forecasts with the accuracy of a Magic 8‑Ball.
- Short‑range models are still stretching, yawning, and insisting they’ll “be ready in a few runs.”
- Posters are beginning to refresh pages at unsafe speeds.
- Several users have already declared the storm “dead,” “back,” “dead again,” and “historic” within the same hour.
- The phrase “I’m not panicking, YOU’RE panicking” has been detected in multiple threads.

EXPECTED IMPACTS
- Elevated levels of doomposting and hopium may occur simultaneously.
- Thread temperatures may rise sharply despite the actual temperatures falling.
- Increased risk of users posting outdated model frames labeled “JUST LOOK AT THIS.”
- Wxman57 may be spotted shaking his head from a safe distance.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Secure all loose emotions and tie down any expectations.
- Avoid staring directly at long‑range snowfall maps.
- Keep hydration nearby for rapid‑fire F5 key usage.
- Prepare for sudden shifts in tone, ranging from “It’s over” to “We’re saved” within minutes.

This will be updated as model tendencies and swings warrant.
11 likes
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real foreca

Hahaha, well played

[HockeyTx82]

I feel as if this roller coaster represents the Storm2K board when it comes to model watching. We start off fast, then very chaotic and then end up coming back to where we started/let down perhaps that it's over.....

I've ridden it as well it's a really good one.



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=LOplZnpvU7E

[gpsnowman]

We've been Fern'd.

[Quixotic]

We've been Fern'd.

Should remove capitalization and shorten to f’d.

[gpsnowman]

We've been Fern'd.

Should remove capitalization and shorten to f’d.