Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

I mean if this is true Arctic air I can easily seeing those temps now being forecast to bust on Friday. Lots to see play out.

So i agree. Partially. I agree in a sense of how can a 1052 HP in the US not produce below freezing temps to the Gulf Coast. At the same time, the winds are shunting things to the east and i believe alot of the cold will go with it.

This is the disconnect between the upper flow and surface. Back in 2023 every model (global) led by the Euro was pretty good with the upper flow but struggled with lower level cold, myself, txtwister, and orangeblood had to go against the world because the Euro was mild only to see one of the worse freezing rain icing events in ATX and SAT. If you have a trough that digs into the southwest it allows the cold to bleed. This splitting of the upper flow it has to pick one or the other and often times it is the model that picks the broader cold trough northeast vs the western flank.

So are you thinking the timing for temps to get below freezing is between midnight-3am for the metroplex?

[Gotwood]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

Incredible but the real winter fun begins second week of Feb.

https://i.imgur.com/0NlE9BI.png

https://i.imgur.com/lhVM8J5.png

I did call V day for winter a couple weeks back lol.

[TomballEd]

12Z HRRR has DFW area start dropping below freezing about 6 am. Shows mixed precip starting before that.

Yeah, I know, 48 hours is pushing it.

[Ntxw]

So are you thinking the timing for temps to get below freezing is between midnight-3am for the metroplex?

FV3, WRFs, RGEM, a lot of the short range guidance are bundled between 6z and 12z to fall to freezing and into the 20s by morning Saturday with CAA from the north/northeast. I'd buy into that.

[Gotwood]

So are you thinking the timing for temps to get below freezing is between midnight-3am for the metroplex?

FV3, WRFs, RGEM, a lot of the short range guidance are bundled between 6z and 12z to fall to freezing and into the 20s by morning Saturday with CAA from the north/northeast. I'd buy into that.

Yeah that’s what I was seeing. What do you think is the cause for pushing back the freezing timeline? I believe at one point we were looking as early at 3pm Friday lol.

[Ntxw]

So are you thinking the timing for temps to get below freezing is between midnight-3am for the metroplex?

FV3, WRFs, RGEM, a lot of the short range guidance are bundled between 6z and 12z to fall to freezing and into the 20s by morning Saturday with CAA from the north/northeast. I'd buy into that.

Yeah that’s what I was seeing. What do you think is the cause for pushing back the freezing timeline? I believe at one point we were looking as early at 3pm Friday lol.

What was the source? I don't recall forecasts or models showing that?

Earliest I've seen if you assume much strong CAA may be Friday night in the northern counties and out west.

[Brent]

To be fair the whole storm has slowed down a bit in general... We don't even get started til probably after dark up here. At one point Friday morning was questionable about whether there would be issues

Of course it now lingers into Sunday too. At one point it was over Saturday. That's really the big trend I've noticed up here. The whole final wave Saturday night didn't appear on the models til a couple days ago

[snownado]

If nothing else, it is loooking increasingly likely that much of the widespread wintry precipitation is being delayed until the day on Saturday. This is good in that the evening commute in DFW will be relatively smooth.

Uncertainty still remains with exact surface temps during the daytime on Saturday, as well as precip type (freezing rain vs. sleet).

[TomballEd]

SETX won't have a memorable event in the immediate Houston metro. Car accidents on rural untreated roads late night Saturday into Sunday, that may happen The 290 corridor outside of the immediate Houston area will see more. San Antonio has a better chance at significant winter precip than Houston does but I don't think they get that much either. It does make Austin for a few hours while some precip is falling.

The warmer probably makes it worse for DFW, it would shift the FZRA line North, and sleet is less dangerous than ice ice every time.

12Zs coming in

[wxman22]

3k NAM Up here it looks like the frozen precip starts around 5-6pm Friday. NW Texas topography at work.

[Wthrfan]

Can anyone recall the approximate page for the link to the video explaining the various maps and terminology? I think it was on Tuesday. I meant to bookmark it, but got busy and next thing I knew it was 15 pages later!

[orangeblood]

HRRR now into range....similar to GFS with frz transition moving thru the Metroplex before sunrise Saturday (4-6am time frame). Then temps tank from there as wave after wave of light-moderate precip set in until Sunday midday.

[snownado]

FV3, WRFs, RGEM, a lot of the short range guidance are bundled between 6z and 12z to fall to freezing and into the 20s by morning Saturday with CAA from the north/northeast. I'd buy into that.

Yeah that’s what I was seeing. What do you think is the cause for pushing back the freezing timeline? I believe at one point we were looking as early at 3pm Friday lol.

What was the source? I don't recall forecasts or models showing that?

Earliest I've seen if you assume much strong CAA may be Friday night in the northern counties and out west.

Several forecasters early on (including the NWS) did at least indicate a faster frontal passage during the day on Friday was a possibility given past handling of these shallow arctic airmasses.

But ever since the storm has evolved into what it is now (more amped / NW), that outcome seems very unlikely.

[gpsnowman]

3k NAM Up here it looks like the frozen precip starts around 5-6pm Friday.

https://i.ibb.co/v4WpxTkv/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026012212-NAMNST-SGP-winter-ptype-33-100.gif

Man that is a lot of moisture/sleet.

[Haddox12]

It would be a cool feature if this board displayed your home location with your username. Someone in OKC is freaking out about a blizzard and someone in Houston is bummed about a bust and it’s impossible to know what to expect based on reading through vague conjecture of what one person is expecting in their backyard

[bigddstranny]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax/1769061600/1769061600-wRa4zuq73Mc.png

Isn't that similar to 2021, though not as cold or long lasting? Or am I "mis-renembering"?

[orangeblood]

3k NAM Up here it looks like the frozen precip starts around 5-6pm Friday.

https://i.ibb.co/v4WpxTkv/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026012212-NAMNST-SGP-winter-ptype-33-100.gif

Man that is a lot of moisture/sleet.

It really is, it looks like it transitions right as the heavy line is moving through. Will be really quick accumulations if this plays out

[Brent]

3k NAM Up here it looks like the frozen precip starts around 5-6pm Friday.

https://i.ibb.co/v4WpxTkv/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026012212-NAMNST-SGP-winter-ptype-33-100.gif

Man that is a lot of moisture/sleet.

Yeah I think that's why there's so much hype up here too even for manageable snow. The signal about the moisture envelope has been crazy

[HockeyTx82]

3k NAM Up here it looks like the frozen precip starts around 5-6pm Friday. NW Texas topography at work.

https://i.ibb.co/v4WpxTkv/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026012212-NAMNST-SGP-winter-ptype-33-100.gif

This proves my point, haha. We are such a large State and everybody's post is directed towards their specific area, so while one post above may say oh my God it's not going to get below freezing until Saturday, the next can indicate hey it's breaking out Friday afternoon.

Lots of emotions here.

[orangeblood]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax/1769061600/1769061600-wRa4zuq73Mc.png

Isn't that similar to 2021, though not as cold or long lasting? Or am I "mis-renembering"?

Very close to 2021 over a 10 day stretch if this came close to verifying