Texas Winter 2025-2026

[GunnySgtGandalf]

Looks like a nothing burger for SE Texas this round. The hill country will be under the gun Saturday evening and done with the threat Sunday morning.

Not official, just what I'm seeing in high res.

[jasons2k]

I think we have now passed “peak warmth” on the model runs. It’s all downhill from here, depending on your perspective.

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2014357182171451626?s=20
Ryan Maue

[Edwards Limestone]

Looks like a nothing burger for SE Texas this round. The hill country will be under the gun Saturday evening and done with the threat Sunday morning.

Not official, just what I'm seeing in high res.

Yeah all the panic around SA/NB is pretty hilarious. Can’t blame people after 2021 though. We’ll be fine here.

[wxman22]

12Z WRF models

[JDawg512]

It would be a cool feature if this board displayed your home location with your username. Someone in OKC is freaking out about a blizzard and someone in Houston is bummed about a bust and it’s impossible to know what to expect based on reading through vague conjecture of what one person is expecting in their backyard

Thats why I put my location at the bottom with my disclaimer. I agree that it can be confusing especially during times when part of the state is active and the thread is going crazy but it doesn't include your immediate area.

oh yea and I forgot that there is location since I use my phone and don't usually change to landscape mode...

[Portastorm]

Looks like a nothing burger for SE Texas this round. The hill country will be under the gun Saturday evening and done with the threat Sunday morning.

Not official, just what I'm seeing in high res.

Yeah all the panic around SA/NB is pretty hilarious. Can’t blame people after 2021 though. We’ll be fine here.

I mentioned it the other day and will say it again, people around these parts of Texas have PTSD after Snowpocalypse 2021 and Ice Storm 2022. Given what we experienced, it shouldn't surprise anyone. But yeah ... as of now it looks like a minor icing event here if anything. The big show will be further north of us.

[jaguars_22]

FWIW the RGEM has been trending further south with heavier freezing rain totals… we’re not out of the woods yet…

[snownado]

12z ICON has it transition to snow for much of NC, NW, W Texas and Oklahoma Saturday evening. Everyone is in the single digits or low to mid teens. The trend the past 24 hours has been to amp up that trowel feature, associated with the max vorticity of the ULL coming out which is starting to find moisture in very cold air.

Side note I still question the quality of these algorithms depictions of sleet/frz rain, the different sites are not always in sync.

The ICON's sounding out of Jacksboro and Gainesvills still show a pretty stout warn layer between 700mb and 800mb at 00z Sunday, so I'm skeptical of its precip type map for that reason.

When all else fails, the Skew-T plots will always tell the story.

[bubba hotep]

Are we hugging or hating the 12z ICON for showing this?

[Edwards Limestone]

Are we hugging or hating the 12z ICON for showing this?

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2026012212/114/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Looks like Ruidoso and Cloudcroft are going to have a fun weekend if you like snow.

[utpmg]

Looks like a nothing burger for SE Texas this round. The hill country will be under the gun Saturday evening and done with the threat Sunday morning.

Not official, just what I'm seeing in high res.

Yeah all the panic around SA/NB is pretty hilarious. Can’t blame people after 2021 though. We’ll be fine here.

I mentioned it the other day and will say it again, people around these parts of Texas have PTSD after Snowpocalypse 2021 and Ice Storm 2022. Given what we experienced, it shouldn't surprise anyone. But yeah ... as of now it looks like a minor icing event here if anything. The big show will be further north of us.

Yeah, the ice storm of 2023 here in East Austin stripped my 70 year old Elms (and brought down the neighbor's) so I don't know if I have anything left to lose in this one.

[Portastorm]

FWIW the RGEM has been trending further south with heavier freezing rain totals… we’re not out of the woods yet…

Oh I have noticed that as well and it definitely dumps a lot of freezing rain/sleet on Central Texas overnight Saturday! But it's hard to say right now whether this model is on to something, or ON something. LOL.

[Quixotic]

12Z WRF models

https://i.ibb.co/RTzX64h0/wrf-arw-ref-frzn-scus-fh32-48.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Y4kJxyXK/wrf-arw2-ref-frzn-scus-fh33-48.gif

Convection!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

[DukeMu]

This board is wild . Not sure why/where this narrative of a "bust" is coming from, everything looks to be on track...only question now is about timing of when the transition occurs.

There looks to be 3 waves of precip with this system. It's only the front end batch (Friday/Friday Night) that is in question on when the transition from liquid to frz occurs. But overall, all 3 waves have a substantial amount of QPF occupying them.

This is an Historical Winter Storm for everyone from I-10 North - several DFW Records maybe broken with this storm - Low Max and Low Min on Jan 25 & 26 along with the snowfall record on the 25th as well.

The latest GFS run over the next two weeks is incredible!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-deterministic/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax/1769061600/1769061600-wRa4zuq73Mc.png

Isn't that similar to 2021, though not as cold or long lasting? Or am I "mis-renembering"?

Depends where you are. College Station saw six inches of snow in both Jan and Feb. 2021. We might see a few flakes Sunday morning.

The lows will be 9-10°F warmer: 14°F-15°F rather than 5°F. My main concern this time is ice on power lines and power outages.

The potential saving grace is a guest appearance of thundersleet if it happens.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

How often do we see such a prevalent warm nose despite such low temperatures at the lower levels?

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS has heavy sleet saturday evening in NTX sitting 16-18F. Can honestly say I have never seen that happen with that much sleet at such low temperatures will be at first.

Depending on location there is 1.25 - 1.75" of QPF after temps cross 25F across DFWv

[Ralph's Weather]

Even before surface drops to freezing sleet will likely be mixing in with the rain starting tomorrow evening when the low levels drop to below freezing. We could get a coating of sleet before temps fall to freezing during the early morning hours.

[Iceresistance]

I love this trend, now it needs to move west and I'll be a super happy camper for snow


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwIM.gif