Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS showing sub 0 west of DFW on Monday and east of DFW on Tue. Could happen where a solid base of snow/sleet is laid down this weekend.

[HockeyTx82]

For those of us without a generator, if you lose power and your food is not cooling, do what I did and pack it in the snow/ice outside in the shade. I lost nothing in 2021 doing that, and the power came back on and I put it all back. The kids thought it was fun too, kind of like camping

Obviously be mindful of any kind of spoilage but if you're confident in your ability to do that, it's a way to not let food go to waste if your power ends up going out for a duration of time.

[txtwister78]

Still think globals will be too warm with surface temps and so you're looking at a further south accumulation zone regarding freezing rain due to surface temps dropping faster. Ironically the AI's of both the GFS and Euro may have a better handle on how that all plays out than their global model counterparts do.

This synoptic setup here in terms of our event in outlining precip (not temps thankfully) Ironically looks similar to 2021 in that where we saw two big waves of frozen precip further north in DFW and then the final one with another slug of moisture further south as models depict as our system ejects out. Obviously again not 2021 here in terms of temps and statewide impacts but with these wind chills and temps at night impactful nonetheless.

[Cerlin]

12z NAM is much tighter with the bowling ball low than the GFS/Euro leading to more dry air intrusion. That's leading to a stronger warm nose/dry slotting and showing pure rain tomorrow for DFW. All it'll take is a slight deviation in the upper level flow and the progression of that first low as it moves over the CONUS to lead to much higher snow amounts across Oklahoma and more sleet compared to freezing rain for Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

12z NAM is much tighter with the bowling ball low than the GFS/Euro leading to more dry air intrusion. That's leading to a stronger warm nose/dry slotting and showing pure rain tomorrow for DFW. All it'll take is a slight deviation in the upper level flow and the progression of that first low as it moves over the CONUS to lead to much higher snow amounts across Oklahoma and more sleet compared to freezing rain for Texas.

Maybe that's why the Fort Worth office has not upgraded us to a warning? In fact with your post above they may just cancel the watch altogether maybe?

[Quixotic]

I guess there’s a big old dry slot over FWD for the entire event since we aren’t warned yet.

I guess they’re figuring out amounts and timing.

So, just got back from HEB and it was chaotic but they had everything we needed.

[Texas Snow]

A warning is most certainly coming

[Quixotic]

I sincerely doubt the NAM is holding them up.

[hurricane2025]

Wxman why is euro so warm

[Quixotic]

12z NAM is much tighter with the bowling ball low than the GFS/Euro leading to more dry air intrusion. That's leading to a stronger warm nose/dry slotting and showing pure rain tomorrow for DFW. All it'll take is a slight deviation in the upper level flow and the progression of that first low as it moves over the CONUS to lead to much higher snow amounts across Oklahoma and more sleet compared to freezing rain for Texas.

Maybe that's why the Fort Worth office has not upgraded us to a warning? In fact with your post above they may just cancel the watch altogether maybe?

I’m more worried about seeing purple (WWA) than white (nada).

[HockeyTx82]

12z NAM is much tighter with the bowling ball low than the GFS/Euro leading to more dry air intrusion. That's leading to a stronger warm nose/dry slotting and showing pure rain tomorrow for DFW. All it'll take is a slight deviation in the upper level flow and the progression of that first low as it moves over the CONUS to lead to much higher snow amounts across Oklahoma and more sleet compared to freezing rain for Texas.

Maybe that's why the Fort Worth office has not upgraded us to a warning? In fact with your post above they may just cancel the watch altogether maybe?

I’m more worried about seeing purple (WWA) than white (nada).

Ahh, the kiss of death

[Stratton23]

The 12z EPS has my attention around the 30/31, im becoming very interested, 21/50 members have a snowstorm in central- SE texas, for 10 days out, to already have 2/5 of the EPS showing snow in the deep south is pretty significant

[Tammie]

Yeah that’s what I was seeing. What do you think is the cause for pushing back the freezing timeline? I believe at one point we were looking as early at 3pm Friday lol.

What was the source? I don't recall forecasts or models showing that?

Earliest I've seen if you assume much strong CAA may be Friday night in the northern counties and out west.

Several forecasters early on (including the NWS) did at least indicate a faster frontal passage during the day on Friday was a possibility given past handling of these shallow arctic airmasses.

But ever since the storm has evolved into what it is now (more amped / NW), that outcome seems very unlikely.

That was accurate for the Red River counties ONLY. I’m in Grayson County and it was forecast to start at that time for days… until it wasn’t LOL!!!!. Everything south was delayed by several hours. Maybe that’s where the confusion came in.

[HockeyTx82]

The 12z EPS has my attention around the 30/31, im becoming very interested, 21/50 members have a snowstorm in central- SE texas, for 10 days out, to already have 2/5 of the EPS showing snow in the deep south is pretty significant

Yep with the NAM post above I get it, let's focus on the future storms, this one's already over. I'm returning all of my food I bought to Costco and putting away my winter gear.

[Harp.1]

The 12z EPS has my attention around the 30/31, im becoming very interested, 21/50 members have a snowstorm in central- SE texas, for 10 days out, to already have 2/5 of the EPS showing snow in the deep south is pretty significant

Yep. We are watching that over here in Louisiana as well.

[Stratton23]

I mean yeah the attention is on this one, , but this signal is only a couple of days after this storm, just thought id mention it because it is a pretty significant signal on the EPS

[HockeyTx82]

I mean yeah the attention is on this one, , but this signal is only a couple of days after this storm, just thought id mention it because it is a pretty significant signal on the EPS

Oh no that was me giving up on this forecast and saying that it was time to move on, based off the NAM, don't take it personal, I was doomposting.

[Texas Snow]

Oof, I don't like this update.

New probability graphics from NWSFWD have only 1 inch of snow from Sweetwater to Mount Pleasant (so DFW included) and .4 inches of ice across all of north texas (with a little over .5 in east Texas)

Can't post images now but here ya go: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/winter

[dhweather]

In 5196 hours, the GFS has A CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!!!

[dhweather]

One of these CWA's is not like the others.