Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

Crazy QPF here while cold is pushing south. A good portion of this is from the 2nd wave as the system comes out of Mexico.

[Texas Snowman]

“Page number 200 coming up in 3, 2, 1…”

[LearnedHat]

Crazy QPF here while cold is pushing south. A good portion of this is from the 2nd wave as the system comes out of Mexico.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1769104800/1769385600-QzkyaNGlWWU.png

Unfortunately, that map puts the bullseye on my property for precip (a lot of which I am sure will not be friendly) --- good news is the wheel is still spinning so it might land somewhere else.

[Cerlin]

2nd wave looks way more potent. If convective snow bands form you could see some wild variability in snow/sleet amounts county to county for NTX

[HockeyTx82]

Timing of surface front is faster that forecast, The surface front went through Broken Bow NE @ 1:53pm with a N wind 8 mph gusting to 20 mph, @ 2:53pm winds were N @ 16 mph with a temp of 30F at the regional airport.

Calculating the distance to the Air port from our office building in DT FTW is 550 miles / 20 mph frontal movement = 27.5 hrs till it impacts DT FTW.

That puts the surface front into DFW by 7:30pm Friday followed by the arctic wall and the white walkers @ 9:30pm. Which means we could be seeing the onset of FR precip before midnight.

So there's' that......

Do these air masses usually gain or lose speed as they go?

It depends on how many times it stops at Buc-ees to use the bathroom.

[snownado]

What if the forecast busts and we get little to no precip? The rage will be beyond comprehension.

I doubt there would be any complaints

Folks are trying to make the best of it of course (because it's a rare weather event), but most could definitely do without the power outages, property damage, slip & falls, difficult/impossive travel conditions, etc.

[LearnedHat]

Timing of surface front is faster that forecast, The surface front went through Broken Bow NE @ 1:53pm with a N wind 8 mph gusting to 20 mph, @ 2:53pm winds were N @ 16 mph with a temp of 30F at the regional airport.

Calculating the distance to the Air port from our office building in DT FTW is 550 miles / 20 mph frontal movement = 27.5 hrs till it impacts DT FTW.

That puts the surface front into DFW by 7:30pm Friday followed by the arctic wall and the white walkers @ 9:30pm. Which means we could be seeing the onset of FR precip before midnight.

So there's' that......

Do these air masses usually gain or lose speed as they go?

It depends on how many times it stops at Buc-ees to use the bathroom.

seems more like a WinStar type of storm

[HockeyTx82]

Do these air masses usually gain or lose speed as they go?

It depends on how many times it stops at Buc-ees to use the bathroom.

seems more like a WinStar type of storm

Well in that case if it drinks to much and passes out, all rain for NTX at that point.

[bbowman7]

Just looking for any updates for Tyler/Longview (Henderson in particular) area. Been keeping up with it from NWS and other sites, but curious thoughts from people on here. Thanks.

[Browndog]

For Tyler/Longview if we go off the GFS, we’ll have mostly sleet. It’s been pretty consistent. I hope it’s right with profiles, as the alternative is a bigger mess with freezing rain.

[Snowman67]

18z GFS us a lot more aggressive with freezing rain in the houston metro, yikes

Also shows snow in Houston at the end of the month, for whatever it's worth...

[Browndog]

I hate freezing rain, so my bias is probably showing some. If we get mostly sleet, we’re looking at 3-6” of that with maybe a few inches of snow at the end.

[Stratton23]

Snowman67 Yup, i do think the state faces a much better chance at a widespread snow event with the 2nd system next weekend ( assuming the systems still shows up )

[Browndog]

Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.

[Gotwood]

Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.

We are getting closer and I think reality is finally setting in on what is coming. In talking with friends they are not taking this very seriously. I’m honestly a tad bit concerned at this point those temperatures with this kind of precipitation man.

[Ralph's Weather]

Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.

That's about what I have forecasted on my page. It seems likely that our region will lean more sleet especially the more NW you are. Henderson could lean more freezing rain while Lindale/Canton likely more sleet and snow.

[BradKingK]

Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.

I hope you don't get an inch of freezing rain because that means I will, too, in Tyler, which is way too much.

[bag2237]

Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.

We are getting closer and I think reality is finally setting in on what is coming. In talking with friends they are not taking this very seriously. I’m honestly a tad bit concerned at this point those temperatures with this kind of precipitation man.

What are they not doing that they should be? Not covering pipes? Not getting groceries?

[Sambucol2024]

From Jeff Linder...

1-22-26 330pm

Busy with briefings and calls this afternoon so a brief update to say not a lot has changed today with the upcoming winter storm.

Looking at some of the incoming afternoon guidance suggests ice accumulation of .01-.05 will likely need to be extended down to the coast….and the coastal counties may be out in a winter weather advisory for icy bridges tomorrow morning .

Ice accumulation across the metro of .05-.20 of an inch with most bridges having issues by Sunday morning

Suggest most people in the metro area plan to be where you will be for the duration of this event by 900pm Saturday to be in the safe side.

No change to temperatures although will probably need to take a hard look at Monday AM forecast lows depending on ice amounts.

More later

[LearnedHat]

Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.

We are getting closer and I think reality is finally setting in on what is coming. In talking with friends they are not taking this very seriously. I’m honestly a tad bit concerned at this point those temperatures with this kind of precipitation man.

What are they not doing that they should be? Not covering pipes? Not getting groceries?

Reroofing their homes?