Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Iceresistance]

Well, this is a problem

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif

[gpsnowman]

00z HRRR moves the freezing line through The Falls about 6 hours earlier than the 18z

The plot thickens. Had a feeling this would happen. Wxman22 is in the thick of it

[foulbeast]

A faster frontal passage would result in more freezing rain, correct?

[Brent]

Well, this is a problem
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif

You don't say

Every single time

[Steve]

What you gonna do though but try to help people understand the situation. Some people will listen and some will be hardheaded or initially ambivalent until the reality does hit. Hope it’s more of a party storm and only somewhat of a minor aggravation for everyone.

Gotwood has clearly not been to a grocery store this afternoon. I did my shopping yesterday but had to go to Wal Mart and heb for a few things, it’s mad max out there in north Fort Worth!

Correct that’s why I’m apart of this forum. I did my prep work on Monday.

Bingo.

[HockeyTx82]

Well, this is a problem
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif

You don't say

Every single time

What is the problem?

The timing is ahead or the mountains are holding it up?

[Iceresistance]

Well, this is a problem
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif

You don't say

Every single time

What is the problem?

The timing is ahead or the mountains are holding it up?

The cold air is coming in faster and faster on the HRRR

[Texas Snow]

My Christmas lights are back up! Well at least on my palm trees, no thanks to my S2K lurker friend, FND

I thought they would be fine since they are rated 0-10 degrees but with 4° now forecasted IMBY, it’s just too big a risk so went back in the attic and got the energy inefficient but warm incandescent lights out.

Now, I finally think I am storm ready.

Maybe…

[Iceresistance]

Is HRRR bad with moisture? It has trended a bit drier

[rwfromkansas]

Well, this is a problem
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwO1.gif

I will say one surprising thing on that run is that it is barreling pretty fast even into east central OK. That may portend earlier issues later if it continues at that speed further east sooner. Granted, this is just a model, we will see where it actually stands in the morning.

[gpsnowman]

00z HRRR moves the freezing line through The Falls about 6 hours earlier than the 18z

Just think where it will be when we wake up in the morning.

[bubba hotep]

Is HRRR bad with moisture? It has trended a bit drier

A couple of things, cold air pushing south faster also means drier air pushing south faster, and this is the first batch of QPF that pushes through Friday night into Saturday morning.

[Quixotic]

My Christmas lights are back up! Well at least on my palm trees, no thanks to my S2K lurker friend, FND

I thought they would be fine since they are rated 0-10 degrees but with 4° now forecasted IMBY, it’s just too big a risk so went back in the attic and got the energy inefficient but warm incandescent lights out.

Now, I finally think I am storm ready.

Maybe…

My HOA would sic a lawyer on me. It’s not a brag. HOAs seem to attract control freaks.

[rwfromkansas]

High is starting to press pretty good on surface analysis, has gotten stronger today.

[Quixotic]

So I’m comparing wind shifts to temperature falls and yeah, the front may pass earlier but the meat of the cold air is a few hours behind. Was looking up in Kansas and Nebraska and the shift in wind happened a few hours before temps dropped.

[gpsnowman]

My Christmas lights are back up! Well at least on my palm trees, no thanks to my S2K lurker friend, FND

I thought they would be fine since they are rated 0-10 degrees but with 4° now forecasted IMBY, it’s just too big a risk so went back in the attic and got the energy inefficient but warm incandescent lights out.

Now, I finally think I am storm ready.

Maybe…

My HOA would sic a lawyer on me. It’s not a brag. HOAs seem to attract control freaks.

Can I speak to your manager?

[orangeblood]

Is HRRR bad with moisture? It has trended a bit drier

Yes, notoriously bad…happens almost every winter storm. Just use for temp profiles and wind

Latest HRRR looks lock step with our new AI models . And they will only continue to get better and better

Speaking of, here is what the AI Ensemble members look like snowfall wise. Combo of sleet and snow, incorporates a further south push of colder/quicker air into Texas. For Oklahoma, this is a 10:1 profile snowfall depiction, likely much higher totals up there with higher ratios

[Ntxw]

Don't forget, the shorter hi res models (including the NAM) are not global models. They do not see beyond their designed region (US.) Once the actual cold air is ground truth then they will initialize it better and trend. It can only see what's there.

[Quixotic]

My Christmas lights are back up! Well at least on my palm trees, no thanks to my S2K lurker friend, FND

I thought they would be fine since they are rated 0-10 degrees but with 4° now forecasted IMBY, it’s just too big a risk so went back in the attic and got the energy inefficient but warm incandescent lights out.

Now, I finally think I am storm ready.

Maybe…

My HOA would sic a lawyer on me. It’s not a brag. HOAs seem to attract control freaks.

Can I speak to your manager?

Haha. Yes. Karen city!

[rylo7956]

Is HRRR bad with moisture? It has trended a bit drier

Yes, notoriously bad…happens almost every winter storm. Just use for temp profiles and wind

Latest HRRR looks lock step with our new AI models . And they will only continue to get better and better

Speaking of, here is what the AI Ensemble members look like snowfall wise. Combo of sleet and snow, incorporates a further south push of colder/quicker air into Texas. For Oklahoma, this is a 10:1 profile snowfall depiction, likely much higher totals up there with higher ratios

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1769104800/1769558400-bZp73YqAIc8.png

Would love to see that!!! Close to 8 inches of snow at the house would make my kids go bonkers