Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

Is HRRR bad with moisture? It has trended a bit drier

Yes, notoriously bad…happens almost every winter storm. Just use for temp profiles and wind

Latest HRRR looks lock step with our new AI models . And they will only continue to get better and better

Speaking of, here is what the AI Ensemble members look like snowfall wise. Combo of sleet and snow, incorporates a further south push of colder/quicker air into Texas. For Oklahoma, this is a 10:1 profile snowfall depiction, likely much higher totals up there with higher ratios

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1769104800/1769558400-bZp73YqAIc8.png

AI versus the combined knowledge of the NWS. I’m betting on humanity.

[Brandon8181]

Don't forget, the shorter hi res models (including the NAM) are not global models. They do not see beyond their designed region (US.) Once the actual cold air is ground truth then they will initialize it better and trend. It can only see what's there.

Good information here. I knew they weren't Globals, but didn't realize this.

[wxman22]

The HRRR ends just as the 2nd wave is about to start. It has 1 inch of QPF here from the first round alone.

[bubba hotep]

No surprise, but not only is the surface cooling faster, but the entire column is. It wouldn''t be surprising to see a transition to snow much faster than currently modeled when the 2nd batch of moisture moves through Texas.

[Ntxw]

No surprise, but not only is the surface cooling faster, but the entire column is. It wouldn''t be surprising to see a transition to snow much faster than currently modeled when the 2nd batch of moisture moves through Texas.

Ukmet.

[Texas Snow]

I am trying to decide if I should keep my husband home on Saturday afternoon to watch the Aggies play basketball rather than watch from our seats in Reed Arena.

Probably depends on where you live. If in College Station or south it’s probably ok. It’s not forecast to drop to freezing there until 10pm Saturday night. (According to NWS point forecast). Of course check the NWS as we get closer.

Yell loud!

[bubba hotep]

The HRRR ends just as the 2nd wave is about to start. It has 1 inch of QPF from the first round alone.

https://i.ibb.co/9mLNTMxf/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST--HRRR-SGP-winter-ptype-11-100.gif

18z runs showed another 1.5-2" of QPF with the 2nd batch. Add that to the 00z HRRR, which shows Texas being much colder everywhere...

[jasons2k]

The freezing line is now in the NW Texas panhandle.

[rwfromkansas]

The HRRR ends just as the 2nd wave is about to start. It has 1 inch of QPF from the first round alone.

https://i.ibb.co/9mLNTMxf/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST--HRRR-SGP-winter-ptype-11-100.gif

It still holds that 540 line up quite a ways north, but hard to tell. I wish these GIFS were slower. But, surely the would be inaccurate with the level of cold air arriving.

[Ntxw]

Don't forget, the shorter hi res models (including the NAM) are not global models. They do not see beyond their designed region (US.) Once the actual cold air is ground truth then they will initialize it better and trend. It can only see what's there.

Good information here. I knew they weren't Globals, but didn't realize this.

We like to use them for temperatures and convection but often it is misinterpreted what they represent. We wait for them because of that direct link, it is less a guess, but rather directive on what's actually there closer to reality. But they have limitations, the further out you go the more it becomes a guess, just like the globals in a sense, without the skill of the medium range. Wheelbarrow is about ~48 hours or less for the short range guidance and really more like 24 hours.

[wxman22]

If you look at the soundings a lot of what the HRRR is showing as freezing rain is actually sleet.

[Iceresistance]

Snippet of Tulsa AFD, wow

These factors together point to a widespread storm total of 6-12
inches of snow north of I-40. If some of the higher end guidance
were to develop (less likely) it is possible local accumulations
could be as high as 18-20 inches somewhere.

[Ralph's Weather]

Freeze line is into TX. Tomorrow may be more frozen than expected but moisture will likely be more limited than we thought before. Real game is still Saturday.

[Haddox12]

What you gonna do though but try to help people understand the situation. Some people will listen and some will be hardheaded or initially ambivalent until the reality does hit. Hope it’s more of a party storm and only somewhat of a minor aggravation for everyone.

Gotwood has clearly not been to a grocery store this afternoon. I did my shopping yesterday but had to go to Wal Mart and heb for a few things, it’s mad max out there in north Fort Worth!

Correct that’s why I’m apart of this forum. I did my prep work on Monday.

I stopped on my way home from work on Tuesday and had a beautiful experience at both the grocery store and Home Depot. It was a mess by the same time on Wednesday. I love following you nerds, and I mean that as endearingly as possible.

I don’t get to have any fun during hurricane season but you guys have saved my bacon in the Texas winters and springs for years now.

[bohaiboy]

When is the eluded to second round supposed to be here? Is it part of this weekend's weather, or a future event?

[LearnedHat]

If you look at the soundings a lot of what the HRRR is showing as freezing rain is actually sleet.

Because of the temperature or the thickness of the surface layer - or is the nose not quite as warm.

[txtwister78]

As I've been highlighting for the past few days this makes all the difference in terms of impacts for folks further south in particular regarding the potential for higher ice accumulations and so very important to keep tabs on this as I think the NWS offices further south along with local media in my area in particular may be playing a little catch up with this reality.

Arctic air especially when you're talking about a 1052 high centered across the midwest is going to push and arrive much faster. Just seen it far too many times and so globals (in particular Euro which many within media use) are not as helpful across the south when it comes to surface temps/shallow arctic air.

Below you can see already the comparison between the HRRR and Euro temps at 6PM Saturday. My guess is the HRRR will continue to trend colder by then in future runs in addition to other short range guidance such as the WRF-NSSL and ARW.

[DallasAg]

I’m leaning more Dec 2013 than Feb 2011. 2013 was a shorter event. 2011 we had thunder sleet initially, a 24 hour pause and then the 4-6” snow thump. This time it looks like a 36 hour event with mostly sleet with a 2” snow thump. 2011 was like maybe an 1” of sleet/ice. Completely undriveable. Once the snow hit traction was available however my front fender was plowing through snow in curb drifts. Either way, it’s better than 85 degree Christmas.

This setup reminds me a lot of the event we had March 4-5, 1989. Arctic front blew through early morning hours of the 4th. We had several rounds of sleet, including some thunder sleet, that lasted through mid-afternoon. Then a lull in the action until late night on the 4th/5th when another round came through with some heavier sleet that changed to a pretty decent snow. I don't think that storm had the size and heft of this one in terms of regional scope though.

[Cerlin]

When is the eluded to second round supposed to be here? Is it part of this weekend's weather, or a future event?

For NTX at least, there is a break of precipitation Saturday that then resumes heavier precipitation associated with stronger winds early Sunday morning. Much better snow chance with that

[LearnedHat]

As I've been highlighting for the past few days this makes all the difference in terms of impacts for folks further south in particular regarding the potential for higher ice accumulations and so very important to keep tabs on this as I think the NWS offices further south along with local media in my area in particular may be playing a little catch up with this reality.

Arctic air especially when you're talking about a 1052 high centered across the midwest is going to push and arrive much faster. Just seen it far too many times and so globals (in particular Euro which many within media use) are not as helpful across the south when it comes to surface temps/shallow arctic air.

Below you can see already the comparison between the HRRR and Euro temps at 6PM Saturday. My guess is the HRRR will continue to trend colder by then in future runs in addition to other short range guidance such as the WRF-NSSL and ARW.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin/t2m_f/1769126400/1769299200-7Xm5MCKlpYw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/austin/t2m_f/1769104800/1769299200-jLboTTQ9Nmc.png

I am Where’s Waldo-ing the crap out of that but having trouble spotting the difference.

Okay - got it now - think it changed.