Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Captmorg70]

Here's the current 0z models and snowfall for my area
GFS: 15-17 inches, more to my east
CMC: 14-17 inches
UKMET: 15-17 inches
ICON: 14-18 inches, more to my north
RGEM: 17-18 inches
NAM: 7-10 inches (Crazy outlier)

Waiting for Euro

As we get our 16F sleet, I expect a lot of photos of the snow!

[Iceresistance]

Here's the current 0z models and snowfall for my area
GFS: 15-17 inches, more to my east
CMC: 14-17 inches
UKMET: 15-17 inches
ICON: 14-18 inches, more to my north
RGEM: 17-18 inches
NAM: 7-10 inches (Crazy outlier)

Waiting for Euro

As we get our 16F sleet, I expect a lot of photos of the snow!

Oh yeah, I'll try overnight pictures if I can!

[snownado]

I went out to get a few things earlier today.

I tested H-E-B and it was a zoo in the parking lot alone (literal gridlock), so nope'd out of there with the quickness and went a mile down the road to the Walmart Neighborhood Market. It was busier than normal (it's usually a ghost town), but not nearly as crowded. There were no long lines, a fair amount of parking, etc. It was relatively well stocked with everything too. Market Street was busier than Walmart (had to go there to get the one thing that was out of stock at Walmart), but again, still not nearly as chaotic as H-E-B.

I've seen the videos on TikTok and X about the stores being cleaned out, but it's not nearly as bad as they portray. It's just too many people insist on piling into the new/trendy store in the area. But sensationalized images of empty shelves without context certainly does make for high views or good engagement.

[Iceresistance]

I'm starting to run out what to say on the Euro, this is just... incredible

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk3Ty.png
And yes, you are seeing this correctly, 22 inches for Lake Thunderbird in Cleveland County, OK

[Iceresistance]

Updating my 0z model showing since Euro came in, and wow what a run by the Euro

Here's the current 0z models and snowfall for my area
GFS: 15-17 inches, more to my east
CMC: 14-17 inches
UKMET: 15-17 inches
ICON: 14-18 inches, more to my north
RGEM: 17-18 inches
NAM: 7-10 inches (Crazy outlier)
Euro: 19-22 inches (I surely wasn't expecting that)

[UTSARoadrunner4]

For my Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and everywhere in between. If you’re going to go to HEB, go in the morning and make sure you just get essentials. Just got done delivering groceries and these folks are panic buying like 2021 is coming. I haven’t delivered this much toilet tissue and 40 packs of water in a VERY long time.

[Brent]

The people at work who think it will melt away are funny

22 inches on the Euro

[Iceresistance]

EPS is still uptrending, this could be extremely historic for Oklahoma for snowfall


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk3Ek.gif

[katheria]

For my Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and everywhere in between. If you’re going to go to HEB, go in the morning and make sure you just get essentials. Just got done delivering groceries and these folks are panic buying like 2021 is coming. I haven’t delivered this much toilet tissue and 40 packs of water in a VERY long time.

I braved walmart rowlett tx to get normal stuff for next week (typically shop on Thursday ) merchandise side of store no blankets, no heaters , no tents, no gas cans, ..food section was a nut house, l was laughing to myself as a I walked around , well I won't be eating sandwiches next week that's for sure... or having a frozen pizza/microwave dinner People were standing around in the bread isle with a completely confused on what to do look on their faces..
Meats were completely cleaned out, not even a 1lb roll of that cheap hamburger meat.. milk? Eggs?butter? Bacon sausage all gone, Forget it I left, we will just eat the breakfast sandwiches we have in the freezer
and cook lunch next week
Need to eat some of in the freezer anyways

[DukeMu]

Here. We. Go.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012300/gfs_asnow_scus_13.png

[Gotwood]

Apparently my neck of the woods Sw Parker county is one of the last spots to go below freezing in NTX according to the HRRR lol.

[TropicalTundra]

Little bit of drizzle out this morning on radar, always good to get extra rain in. I can’t tell where exactly the front is on the radar, but the initial wind change is definitely through OKC. When the sun rises it should be easier to pinpoint though

[Ralph's Weather]

I would place the Arctic boundary near a Canadian, TX to OKC to south of Tulsa line. I may be off on the eastern side of that as the DP change isn't as dramatic over there. Daytime will help define it better.

[snownado]

The people at work who think it will melt away are funny

22 inches on the Euro

You've been waiting for this your whole life.

Don't f*ck it up! Most of us will never have the privilege...

[gpsnowman]

Some light drizzle starting to fall. Let it begin

[gpsnowman]

Wake up weather crazies!!!! Today is the day of front tracking and totals predictions. I'm going with three inches of sleet followed by three inches of snow, laying a winter scene for four days. Stay warm and happy.. Ok back to bed

[Ralph's Weather]

Running through to see how models are doing compared to actual front this morning.
10Z HRRR on target
06Z NAM too fast
0Z WRF on target
06Z RGEM on target TX too slow in OK
10Z RAP tad slow but basically on target
06Z GFS a bit slow
06Z AIGFS a bit slow
00Z ECMFW a bit slow
06Z AIECMFW on target
00Z GEM on target
06Z ICON on target

Overall pretty good and none are busting bad. This will be fun to watch through the day.

[Ralph's Weather]

Checking when each model bring freeze line into central DFW. Extrapolated on globals to get the approximate hour.
06Z HRRR 11PM
06Z NAM Tyler by 11PM DFW 8AM overaccounting for UHI it seems, Dallas not until noon
0Z WRF on target 10PM
06Z RGEM 1AM
10Z RAP 11PM
06Z GFS 10PM
06Z AIGFS midnight
00Z ECMFW 3AM
06Z AIECMFW midnight
00Z GEM 1AM
06Z ICON 5AM

As we have been seeing around midnight is a good estimate right now.

[gpsnowman]

-21 in Bismarck North Dakota.
-14 in Pierre South Dakota
-3 in Ohama Nebraska
20 in Wichita Kansas
37 in OKC

[Ralph's Weather]

Using I-70 in Kansas as a benchmark (about where single digits begin this morning) to check initialization. Globals are a bit warm, AI and Hi Res models are on target. NAM is too warm.