Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Wthrfan]

35 in Edmond, OK, should drop below freezing around 8 and not climb back over for 100 hours or so.

Front is between Ada, OK and Ardmore.

[HockeyTx82]

Just got in from my run this morning. Mist and humidity, bleh.

Probably won't be able to "safely" run until maybe Tuesday or Wednesday.

And trends in the models for amounts that show and uptick for DFW?

Any good precip model runs that show anything different then yesterday?

[SnowintheFalls]

Just got in from my run this morning. Mist and humidity, bleh.

Probably won't be able to "safely" run until maybe Tuesday or Wednesday.

And trends in the models for amounts that show and uptick for DFW?

Any good precip model runs that show anything different then yesterday?

Feels like the latest models are only favoring Oklahoma. Looks like it's going to be historic for our northern friends.

[Gotwood]

Just got in from my run this morning. Mist and humidity, bleh.

Probably won't be able to "safely" run until maybe Tuesday or Wednesday.

And trends in the models for amounts that show and uptick for DFW?

Any good precip model runs that show anything different then yesterday?

Going to be another one of those where we won’t know till it starts.

[Portastorm]

For areas further south … like south central Texas … I’m very curious if the WRF-ARW and RGEM models are right. They’re much more aggressive with the FRZ line than the other mesoscale/short range models. If they are right, icing conditions down here will be much worse than the current NWS forecast.

[Gotwood]

For areas further south … like south central Texas … I’m very curious if the WRF-ARW and RGEM models are right. They’re much more aggressive with the FRZ line than the other mesoscale/short range models. If they are right, icing conditions down here will be much worse than the current NWS forecast.

I will be watching the metroplex area I’m not sure I’m buying the progression of the front that it shows.

[Brent]

You can feel the cold air flooding in already

I can't even imagine what its gonna be like this weekend

I've always read about these kind of storms here. There haven't been many of them... Tulsa only has a foot twice on record that I can find

The snowiest January ever is only 12.7 and it snowed like 10 days that month

We almost never have the moisture like this in the middle of winter

[Tejas89]

FW NWS still forecasting modest sleet/snow amounts for the greater metroplex through Sunday: 1” or less southern counties to 3” northern.

This is on top of potentially significant freezing rain late tonight/tomorrow morning of course so nothing modest about the WS warning.

[Tireman4]

For areas further south … like south central Texas … I’m very curious if the WRF-ARW and RGEM models are right. They’re much more aggressive with the FRZ line than the other mesoscale/short range models. If they are right, icing conditions down here will be much worse than the current NWS forecast.

Make sure to put premium gas in Champ The Charger. For weekends like this, you need all the octane you can give it. Also, I hope the Grey Goose delivery is on its way to.the Portastorm Weather Center in time for this event. Those mets will need it.

[Snowman67]

NWS has increased freezing rain totals in my area (Tomball). Saturday night .1-.3 and .1-.2 Sunday. 1/2 inch ice would be bad.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

You can feel the cold air flooding in already

I can't even imagine what its gonna be like this weekend

I've always read about these kind of storms here. There haven't been many of them... Tulsa only has a foot twice on record that I can find

The snowiest January ever is only 12.7 and it snowed like 10 days that month

We almost never have the moisture like this in the middle of winter

Yes. This is a rare event shaping up. Hope you get your 12-15in. It may rival feb 2021. Never thought that was possible. Hope we have a few more later this winter also lol

[rwfromkansas]

My wife swore a few sleet pellets were flying at 4 when she took the dogs out.

We will see how deep the warm nose is now I guess. Basically almost to nowcasting. Hopefully it’s shallower.

For OK, I experienced 12-14 inches only a few times in central KS. It’s rare, but it’s spectacular. Enjoy it.

[Ralph's Weather]

I got a foot between the two storms in 2021 here in Lindale. A foot of powder is an amazing site to see in this region.

[snownado]

If we don't get a quick transiton to sleet, then hopefully the suface temps hover between 30-32*F when it is still raining and precip coverage is more shower-y vs. widespread.

12z HRRR does suggest both of these things remain a possibility at least through 12z Saturday. So fingers crossed...

[Wthrfan]

You can feel the cold air flooding in already

I can't even imagine what its gonna be like this weekend

I've always read about these kind of storms here. There haven't been many of them... Tulsa only has a foot twice on record that I can find

The snowiest January ever is only 12.7 and it snowed like 10 days that month

We almost never have the moisture like this in the middle of winter

Yeah, I've been burned too many times, so I still have a hard time believing it's really going to be epic, but it's exciting to watch!

Down to 32 in Edmond. NE winds in Wichita Falls and Gainesville now.

[snownado]

I got a foot between the two storms in 2021 here in Lindale. A foot of powder is an amazing site to see in this region.

Even in 2021, DFW managed to be the relative screw zone for snowfall totals...

But we're going to leave the past in the past, and hope this one can leave just as quick as it comes in with minimal damage / loss...

[Brent]

You can feel the cold air flooding in already

I can't even imagine what its gonna be like this weekend

I've always read about these kind of storms here. There haven't been many of them... Tulsa only has a foot twice on record that I can find

The snowiest January ever is only 12.7 and it snowed like 10 days that month

We almost never have the moisture like this in the middle of winter

Yeah, I've been burned too many times, so I still have a hard time believing it's really going to be epic, but it's exciting to watch!

There's a dude who quit TV here who is coming back for this storm... I think that was when it hit me that dang this might be epic haha

And yeah I felt underwhelmed by the snow in DFW in 2021

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Here's the current 0z models and snowfall for my area
GFS: 15-17 inches, more to my east
CMC: 14-17 inches
UKMET: 15-17 inches
ICON: 14-18 inches, more to my north
RGEM: 17-18 inches
NAM: 7-10 inches (Crazy outlier)

Waiting for Euro

That's what we call being locked in my friend. Clear your measuring space every 6 hours for an official reading. That much snow will start sagging if you dont!

[WacoWx]

Hourly temp forecast for Dallas via weather.com. This is my benchmark for temp watching throughout the day.

At 8a 1/23/26:
6p 40°
7p 38
8p 37
9p 37
10p 36
11p 36
12a 35
1:00a 34
2a 33
3a 32
4a 32
5a 31
6a 30°

[TomballEd]

HRRR shows the Metroplex getting icy around midnight, give or take an hour or two. A short break in precip (if NWS HGX logic applies, there may be some drizzle or mist in the afternoon and early evening), then round 2. Finishes as snow but there is a lot of freezing rain before that. HRRR actually shows some light/intermitent precip during the 'break' between heavier episodes.

(Edit to add- other 12Z guidance starting to come in. The higher res models should be in their wheelhouse now for most of the event.