Deep South Winter 2024-2025-2026

[snowpocalypse]

Don't think I've ever seen damming to the extent of Monday's NAM. Mid 20's on the Carolina side of the Apps while mid 50's a relatively short distance away on western side of the range.

https://imgur.com/a/jKJeO5g

Yeah this is pretty wild. Im on the east side and towards end of the event the escarpment/highest peaks are are forecast to get rain while we get the ice/sleet.

[snowpocalypse]

Anyone see the GFS 6z lows for 1/27 12z? This run is wack.. it is showing 10 below for central NC

[Ivanhater]

I just saw yesterday's Euro has the same system with snow along the northern Gulf Coast

[Steve]

12z ICON which goes out 7.5 days has snow in southern Louisiana. It was a little late to the party for the current system, but there it is. GFS running now but I gotta jump on a conference call!!!

[Ivanhater]

12z Gfs goes nuclear. Wow

20-35 inches Along the Gulf Coast into South Alabama




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[Kingarabian]

CMC/ICON/GFS in agreement this early is concerning.

[BigB0882]

Ivan, does that heavy snow hit SE Louisiana? The image you posted would be after it moves through here, wondering if we get heavy snow or is it rain with some backend snow?

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian too!



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[Kennethb]

Ivan, does that heavy snow hit SE Louisiana? The image you posted would be after it moves through here, wondering if we get heavy snow or is it rain with some backend snow?

Yes. North of Alexandria gets over 20 inches, Baton Rouge about 5, Bogalusa over 12 inches. Here in Baton Rouge I say don't count your snowflakes until they are falling.

[BigB0882]

Ivan, does that heavy snow hit SE Louisiana? The image you posted would be after it moves through here, wondering if we get heavy snow or is it rain with some backend snow?

Yes. North of Alexandria gets over 20 inches, Baton Rouge about 5, Bogalusa over 12 inches. Here in Baton Rouge I say don't count your snowflakes until they are falling.

Thanks. I never count before they fall and even then I have to wait to see if they stick.

[Steve]

Hey Bo - this is thru next Sunday at noon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=222

[Jag95]

12z Canadian too!

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260123/4ecfe3991699c05b738dd62fa3d8855b.jpg

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Yesterday, with those crazy rates the gfs was showing, I thought maybe there was a issue with it. But with other models showing it, maybe not.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is more suppressed than Gfs and Canadian but has our Gulf storm. Snow again for south Georgia

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is more suppressed than Gfs and Canadian but has our Gulf storm. Snow again for south Georgia

Gulf storm intensity seems to be the main difference across the models.

[MississippiWx]

Not sure I've ever seen two models on the same run show 2 FEET of snow for the South ever. Hard enough to get them to show flurries at the same time. Save those model runs for entertainment purposes when you're feeling down.

[Stormcenter]

Many thought the same thing last year too.

Not sure I've ever seen two models on the same run show 2 FEET of snow for the South ever. Hard enough to get them to show flurries at the same time. Save those model runs for entertainment purposes when you're feeling down.

[Ivanhater]

They are definitely archived because that is just plain bananas.

I fully expect the models to lose the system for a while. Last years historic storm was lost in the mid range and models were playing catch-up literally the day of

[Jag95]

12z Euro is more suppressed than Gfs and Canadian but has our Gulf storm. Snow again for south Georgia

IIRC, the Euro and UKMet were the last two to latch onto last year's storm. I'm not even sure if the UKMet ever did fall in line. Just saying.

Bear watching.

[Nimbus]

CMC/ICON/GFS in agreement this early is concerning.

The media sources have been playing this one up, although the jet stream isn't kinked up much perhaps the polar vortex lobe analysis is giving a strong signal.

Usually the only way you get those kinds of precipitation rates and totals is if the center bombs off Georgia/South Carolina with a blocking ridge pattern that prevents immediate escape. Any talk of negative tilt yet?

[Jag95]

The 18Z GFS shows low pressure over upper midwest "starving" the cold air flow south. Wasn't there in the 12Z. It still has the gulf low (994 mb approaching FL) and it starts out as snow but ends as cold rain for the central gulf coast. It also has the gulf low a little further north, which doesn't help. That being said, it does dump up to a foot of snow before the rain sets in.

One thing looks more and more certain; there will be a gulf low next weekend, all models are showing it. What happens after than is still a guessing game.