Deep South Winter 2024-2025-2026

[Ivanhater]

The 18Z GFS shows low pressure over upper midwest "starving" the cold air flow south. Wasn't there in the 12Z. It still has the gulf low (994 mb approaching FL) and it starts out as snow but ends as cold rain for the central gulf coast. It also has the gulf low a little further north, which doesn't help. That being said, it does dump up to a foot of snow before the rain sets in.

One thing looks more and more certain; there will be a gulf low next weekend, all models are showing it. What happens after than is still a guessing game.

Yeah. Seeing insane levels of snow on 18z is bonkers

[Kingarabian]

Speed of interaction with that GOM low also playing a role here.

[Jag95]

For reference, wasn't the 1993 "Storm of the Century" 991 mbs before crossing FL? 994 could be a pretty big deal if it verifies.

<edit> Actually, it shows 991 in the Gulf just north of Tampa, short of the 976 mb Tallahassee had in 1993. But, this shows it deepening to 959 mbs off the NE coast, which would eclipse the lowest pressure of 960 in 1993 recorded in New England, although off the coast. So, not a Superstorm, just another bomb Noreaster.

[Nimbus]

For reference, wasn't the 1993 "Storm of the Century" 991 mbs before crossing FL? 994 could be a pretty big deal if it verifies.

<edit> Actually, it shows 991 in the Gulf just north of Tampa, short of the 976 mb Tallahassee had in 1993. But, this shows it deepening to 959 mbs off the NE coast, which would eclipse the lowest pressure of 960 in 1993 recorded in New England, although off the coast. So, not a Superstorm, just another bomb Noreaster.

18Z run has the blizzard of the century for Boston and probably points north as the low tracks over Cape Cod Feb 2nd.

[Jag95]

GFS edges north, Canadian trended toward Euro, suppressed to the south. Still a week to go, but GFS is in its own corner.

[Ivanhater]

Clear trend overnight for Suppression.
Let's see if this is the mid range model flip flops and if models will trend back. Still a week out

[cycloneye]

Interesting that recon will fly on monday and tuesday in CPAC and EPAC and I can guess is for what the models are showing on medium range.

SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
26/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: TWO USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PACIFIC FOR THE 27/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

[Snoopie]

More likely it's for the Atmospheric River that's going to hit the NW. Our storm spins up off of that one so it'll provide some clarification regardless, but I think the primary focus is the AR.

[hurricanehunter69]

The big ice and snow pack could help us with temperature moderation as the week progresses and ultimately help us out with lower temps for this event.

[MississippiWx]

Long way to go, but suppression looks like a big enemy.

[Nimbus]

More likely it's for the Atmospheric River that's going to hit the NW. Our storm spins up off of that one so it'll provide some clarification regardless, but I think the primary focus is the AR.

Public awareness for winter storm preparedness probably at play here as well.
Currently tracking the front draped across the Alaska Yukon border.
Should put a pretty good kink in the Jet stream as it slides south.
We would need to get a low in the gulf before considering anything like the 18Z GFS 1993 Déjà vu.

[Jag95]

The latest local NWS discussion mentions the chance of wintry precipitation in the long-term Friday and Saturday. Right now it doesn't look that good, but it's still a little tricky a week out with all models still showing a low developing in the Gulf.

Right now, I'm looking forward to a good rain.

[Jag95]

GFS is back up to its mischief, showing light snow along the northern GC next Sunday. I have no trust in the GFS right now (seems frazzled), but the last Euro (more consistent) did look less suppressed and I really wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the FL peninsula get flakes out of it if it verified.

[Snoopie]

At this point just having that consistent signal is a win. The airmass this storm becomes is still oceanic and hasn't even been sampled by reconnaissance yet. Won't have a good idea on how juiced up this storm becomes until then but I think at this point most options are still on the table. We have a crashing AO and a persistent +PNA which is as much as you could hope for at day 8.

[MississippiWx]

Models are in pretty much unanimous agreement on suppression. Looks like another miss for the Gulf Coast.

[Stormcenter]

Still time for things to change.

Models are in pretty much unanimous agreement on suppression. Looks like another miss for the Gulf Coast.

[Jag95]

Models are in pretty much unanimous agreement on suppression. Looks like another miss for the Gulf Coast.

Yeah, but the Euro is furthest north than it's been in days, with light snow in the Panhandle. Give the GFS time, it'll flip another time or 12.

[Ivanhater]

Models are in pretty much unanimous agreement on suppression. Looks like another miss for the Gulf Coast.

Yeah, but the Euro is furthest north than it's been in days, with light snow in the Panhandle. Give the GFS time, it'll flip another time or 12.

The overnight Euro was surprising. Models still flip flopping. Something to keep an eye on

[Jag95]

The front is finally moving. Meridan, MS dropped 30 degrees in 1 hour.

71 degrees in NOLA, 33 in Baton Rouge.

[cycloneye]

Watch for this.