Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Longhornmaniac8]

Concerning trend across SC TX in that the HRRR continues to depict higher ice accumulation into the San Antonio metro and up the I-35 corridor into Austin which makes sense considering our surface temp trends. These totals however are dangerously approaching ice storm warning criteria. On top of that you get some sleet thrown in for good measure.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin/frzr_total/1769270400/1769335200-ySaq5ZO5iNo.png

HGX ice storm warning is greater than 0.25, below that is a WSW. That would be an ice storm down to San Antonio if that verifies. If I'm at EWX, I'd rather warn of an ice storm now for even greater public exposure, course of least regret. HRRR is doing better than the 3 km NAM, those amounts (power outage levels around Austin) would trigger me to pull the trigger rather than wait for the normal afternoon package.

Ask and you shall receive.

Ice Storm Warning for EWX.

[gpsnowman]

Although light, precip has picked up a bit. So light I can't tell what type it is.
Took a winter walk around the neighborhood with my daughter and we stopped in the woods to listen to a mini sleet shower. No cars, no planes, just the sound of sleet pellets hitting the trees and the ground. Cool moment, it's the little things.

[orangeblood]

Radar southwest of Dallas filling in nicely. Strong return entering Dallas proper rn

Lots of moisture and lift available between now and tomorrow morning, these sleet clusters will pop quickly

[Wthrfan]

Can you post video on here? Had a round come through with some silver dollar-sized flakes.

[Portastorm]

Concerning trend across SC TX in that the HRRR continues to depict higher ice accumulation into the San Antonio metro and up the I-35 corridor into Austin which makes sense considering our surface temp trends. These totals however are dangerously approaching ice storm warning criteria. On top of that you get some sleet thrown in for good measure.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin/frzr_total/1769270400/1769335200-ySaq5ZO5iNo.png

HGX ice storm warning is greater than 0.25, below that is a WSW. That would be an ice storm down to San Antonio if that verifies. If I'm at EWX, I'd rather warn of an ice storm now for even greater public exposure, course of least regret. HRRR is doing better than the 3 km NAM, those amounts (power outage levels around Austin) would trigger me to pull the trigger rather than wait for the normal afternoon package.

Ask and you shall receive.

Ice Storm Warning for EWX.

Yeah I posted about this coming at 11:56 am on this thread.

[bigddstranny]

A few snow flakes intermittently. Temp down to 28. Standing water from the rain last night is starting to freeze.

[TomballEd]

The latest HRRR right now is juiced up holy moly

Spots near and above half an inch of ice in Travis and Williamson Counties by 5 am with precip still falling is approaching catastrophe levels. If Austin area modelled too warm and there will be more sleet than ice, it just means power outage levels of ice will fall in the San Antonio area.

[jasons2k]

Freeze line is roughly from Bastrop to Calvert to Palestine. Down to 39 here.

[rwfromkansas]

Seeing some redevelopment again SW of FW. Good.

[Portastorm]

The latest HRRR right now is juiced up holy moly

Spots near and above half an inch of ice in Travis and Williamson Counties by 5 am with precip still falling is approaching catastrophe levels. If Austin area modelled too warm and there will be more sleet than ice, it just means power outage levels of ice will fall in the San Antonio area.
https://i.imgur.com/zRNidmU.png

During the February 2023 ice storm we had .69" of freezing rain/ice and it was catastrophic in terms of tree loss and widespread power outages for days. In some areas, it was more than a week before power was restored. So yeah ... this latest development is very concerning!

[orangeblood]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

No significant deviations to the previous TAF forecast for this
issuance. We`re in a relative lull in precipitation across the
region, although there are a few showers approaching the Metroplex
at this hour. This should mainly be -FZRA and -PL as there
continues to be a substantial warm nose above the surface. We`ll
maintain -FZRAPL through the afternoon, expecting that there will
be some periods where it`s dry.

Heavier intensity precipitation will start after dark and should
primarily be sleet. We`ll continue with moderate sleet from 02Z
through the overnight, however there is some concern that we could
see a quicker transition to snow if lift is stronger than
anticipated. If that occurs, then snow could be heavy at times.
For now, we`ll continue to monitor this and carry a snow/sleet mix
after 10Z with a transition to all snow by 14Z. Precipitation
should start to taper off around midday Sunday.

Dunn

&&

Latest from the FW NWS office, starting to mention the potential for heavy snow later tonight. Looking at the latest High Res, would imagine confidence is increasing and that office increasing totals across the area during the afternoon package

[mmmmsnouts]

The latest HRRR right now is juiced up holy moly

Spots near and above half an inch of ice in Travis and Williamson Counties by 5 am with precip still falling is approaching catastrophe levels. If Austin area modelled too warm and there will be more sleet than ice, it just means power outage levels of ice will fall in the San Antonio area.
https://i.imgur.com/zRNidmU.png

Gotta say that model seems way off the mark if it’s forecasting almost half an inch of freezing rain in DFW. Last night was supposed to be the freezing rain phase up here and we barely got any, it was pretty much all sleet.

[HockeyTx82]

It's been an adventurous day, very cold. Sleet does not feel pleasant hitting your face when you're out playing in it as it's coming down from the sky.

Also my phone died but my link is back live if anyone wants to check in on it, it should be up the rest of the night. I think my charger went bad.

https://www.youtube.com/live/X0hAvAyWKb ... Vu6qFo_jwd

[Ntxw]

Latest batch coming through the metroplex has re-paved everything in another coat of sleet.

[jasons2k]

Dropped to 38 at 1pm on the dot. Dropping at about 1 degree per hour.

[TomballEd]

HGX ice storm warning is greater than 0.25, below that is a WSW. That would be an ice storm down to San Antonio if that verifies. If I'm at EWX, I'd rather warn of an ice storm now for even greater public exposure, course of least regret. HRRR is doing better than the 3 km NAM, those amounts (power outage levels around Austin) would trigger me to pull the trigger rather than wait for the normal afternoon package.

Ask and you shall receive.

Ice Storm Warning for EWX.

Yeah I posted about this coming at 11:56 am on this thread.

I go away an hour or two and there are three or four new pages. I mainly read for latest obs and models, so I go to second to last page and start from there. Nothing winter like, but we're getting a nice moderate shower. We've done a little better than the Hill Country, but we've been dry and I'm loving the rain.

[txtwister78]

The latest HRRR right now is juiced up holy moly

Spots near and above half an inch of ice in Travis and Williamson Counties by 5 am with precip still falling is approaching catastrophe levels. If Austin area modelled too warm and there will be more sleet than ice, it just means power outage levels of ice will fall in the San Antonio area.
https://i.imgur.com/zRNidmU.png

Right call by NWS although I would've probably included Bexar considering such a large population center and with HRRR continuing to trend colder each hourly run as this continues to be a "catch up" type event down here as mentioned earlier. My guess is that ends up happening anyway but with a WSW already in place hopefully folks are as prepared as can be.

[bubba hotep]

Latest batch coming through the metroplex has re-paved everything in another coat of sleet.

A few snow flakes mixing here in Collin County.

[gpsnowman]

Latest batch coming through the metroplex has re-paved everything in another coat of sleet.

A few snow flakes mixing here in Collin County.

Excellent. Signs of an earlier transition? Still a wind driven microscopic winter mix down here.

[TomballEd]

18Z HRRR is still a bit behind the trends. It still shows icing near DFW and I suspect that should be all snow and all sleet. Or my mention of the heaviest icing probably being a county or three too far N still seems quite plausible. If SAT misses a major ice storm it looks to be more about heavier precip being N of I-10 than where the freeze line gets.