94P INVEST 260124 1800 13.6S 167.5W SHEM 20 1001
SPAC: INVEST 94P
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH
WEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY
PICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH
WEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY
PICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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