Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

My neighbor who owns the local coffee shop was videoing me my son and I playing, and caught me doing a pretty epic goal, as my younger brother said you're living The Glory Days. Hahaha

It's been amazing I have played more hockey in these last 3 days with my sons then I can count. It's been an awesome time!

https://youtube.com/shorts/HXtM7KdUWak? ... 0nTpeUcazU

LOVED this video! And the goal celebration as well!! You looked like a real Dallas Star out there, HockeyTx82.

Thanks Porta, it's been a blast!

[Quixotic]

18z GFS, yes I know it's 300+ hours out but another piece. Look at that -AO.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/gbMlHws.png

[url]https://i.imgur.com/JNy4toh.png

It is in lala land, but remarkable agreement from the 12z Euro and 18z GFS at hour 360 (though not quite the -AO on the Euro)

12z Euro
https://imgur.com/tlJRlfj

18z GFS
https://imgur.com/WQPWi9P

Cross polar flow on the GFS.

[Harp.1]

I hope the GFS ensembles look better than the operational run... sheesh!

[Stratton23]

Dont worry about the operational runs lol, they did this with our current arctic outbreak, they couldn’t see the pattern coming until we got with in a couple days of the event, ensembles are the way to go when looking for a pattern change or reload, and the GFS looks nothing like its own ensemble, thats why i dont put much stock into operational runs past 5 days

[Lagreeneyes03]

I think the Freezing Fog forecast was a bust, was supposed to be "freezing fog" from about 11pm and it's 4am and clear.

[Iceresistance]

I think the Freezing Fog forecast was a bust, was supposed to be "freezing fog" from about 11pm and it's 4am and clear.

Fog is always a fickle thing to forecast

[Gotwood]

Is there any fog in the metroplex at all?

[Tammie]

Is there any fog in the metroplex at all?

We’re in Sherman, part of the “dense fog” area… we got nada so far.

[Wthrfan]

Some of this snow up here might make it to the weekend front at this point haha

And to think again... We were pretty much the worst case scenario for snow amounts here. The very low end of the projections it's really funny when you look at it from that perspective

Our QPF in OKC right before the storm hit was still around 0.8. We ended up with 0.46 in. total. At least the ratios were around 15:1 around here.

[Gotwood]

Just got home from East Tx and the roads are still almost completely covered in my town. Main roads and everything thankfully we are 4 day school weeks because I don’t see how kids will be going to school tomorrow either.

[rwfromkansas]

I think the Freezing Fog forecast was a bust, was supposed to be "freezing fog" from about 11pm and it's 4am and clear.

Growing up I remember it forecast so many times and....nothing.

Then many times it was never forecast and it was insane. Lol.

I'm a little bummed since it's really pretty on trees, but certainly don't want more stuff on the roads (though it usually doesn't stick much there).

It's kind of funny, but my weather station keeps recording rainfall from the ice melting on top of it.

[Stratton23]

Pattern still looks very good on the ensembles the week of valentines day , if anything the biggest change today is for a much stronger -NAO greenland block, love to see that

[Lagreeneyes03]

Pattern still looks very good on the ensembles the week of valentines day , if anything the biggest change today is for a much stronger -NAO greenland block, love to see that

Precip? We get about a week or so to breathe before we model chase again?

[Stratton23]

Lagreeeneyes03 a strong -NAO block is going to help force the mean storm track further south, it doesn’t guarantee precipitation down here, but it definitely can aid in getting the sub tropical jet active again, I think we will get some noisy model runs in early february as the pattern resets, a prolonged - AO thanks to the SPV likely means we stay cold for a long period

[Ntxw]

Too much wind this morning for freezing fog. Winds were constant ~5mph, you need calm winds for fog in the first place. There was actually a 'front' that came through shifting winds NNW.

[Ntxw]

As for the guidance after this weekend's front we will be entering a period of change again. Warmer source region, not much will happen in the modeling world. For the next 1-2 weeks ensembles is the only game in town. We'll likely revisit 'interesting' OP runs maybe post Feb ~5th.

[gpsnowman]

Still a chance for a little snow this weekend or dry cold?

[Brent]

Still a chance for a little snow this weekend or dry cold?

There's definitely a few chances up here before the storm blows up east of us

Maybe a little window mid week next week too around the 4th 5th

You can already see some noise around the 12th too

Definitely not boring or some torch

[orangeblood]

Very significant great lakes milestone reached, does have implications for the overall US weather pattern moving forward

 https://x.com/JordanSteele/status/2016518626031870183

[Ntxw]

Still a chance for a little snow this weekend or dry cold?

Mostly dry, like Brent said some better chances in Oklahoma. If it did happen would be late night so may not be worth it.

Looks like the schools will be re-opening tomorrow as there has been significant improvements on the roads today.