SIO: FYTIA - Tropical Cyclone

[Subtrop]

97S INVEST 260128 0000 13.8S 45.3E SHEM 15 1009

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FYTIA


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on January 30 at 04:00 local time: 15.6 South / 42.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1475 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 420 km to the SOUTH-WEST sector

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 6 km/h.

System information:

- Due to its current intensification, the 09-20252026 system was named FYTIA at 23 UTC on Thursday, January 29, 2026 by the Malagasy meteorological services. It has reached the stage of a moderate tropical storm.

- During its intensification phase, FYTIA resumed its eastward movement. This movement will gradually shift towards the east-southeast, heading towards the Malagasy coast, which the system will likely reach as a tropical cyclone.

- It is scheduled to land on the west coast of Madagascar on Saturday in the province of Mahajunga. It should then depart from the east coast of Madagascar and move southwest of the Mascarene Islands early next week.

Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:

- For Mayotte, it is not expected that this system will directly impact the island which should remain on the periphery of the low-pressure center, which does not prevent disturbed conditions linked to the wet monsoon flow (Kashkazi) until Saturday inclusive.

For Réunion Island, the influence of this system is likely between Sunday evening and Tuesday. Current trends suggest the system will move far enough from the island that the most severe conditions will remain offshore. However, wind, rain, and swell are expected. The extent of these effects will be specified later. Please note that this trend, which covers a relatively long timeframe (3-4 day forecast), requires confirmation in our next forecasts.

Information for other areas of the basin:

In the province of Mahajanga (northwest Madagascar), deteriorating weather conditions are expected starting Friday, accompanied by heavy rain, potentially destructive winds, and locally very destructive conditions, as well as dangerous seas. Residents are advised to monitor the forecast through their national meteorological service.

- In the provinces of Antananarivo and Toamasina, heavy rainfall is possible as the weather system moves over land on Saturday and Sunday. Residents are advised to monitor the forecast through their national meteorological service.

- In the province of Nampula (Mozambique), conditions are improving as the system moves away. However, residents are advised to monitor the forecast through their national meteorological service.

[cycloneye]

Organizing.

[Hurricane2022]

Impressive!

[Hurricane2022]

It appeas that Fytia is intensifying much faster than predicted...Madagascar is trouble!

[cycloneye]

After it crosses Madagascar, it will reintensifie.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FYTIA


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 987 hPa.

Position on January 30 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.7 South / 42.7 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1440 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 410 km to the SOUTH-WEST sector

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 7 km/h.

[cycloneye]

And there is the eye.

[sasha_B]

As of 1730z, we have a subjective Dvorak fix of 5.5 from JTWC, and objective adjusted ADT 5.9 (though only 4.6 after constraints) from UW-CIMSS. I'd place Fytia at 100 kt / 955 hPa, easily, but we'll have an official intensity estimate soon.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Fytia


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 972 hPa.

Position on January 30 at 10 p.m. local time: 15.6 South / 44.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1330 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 330 km to the SOUTH-SOUTHWEST sector

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 20 km/h.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Fytia


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 968 hPa.

Position on January 31 at 04:00 local time: 16.0 South / 44.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1225 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 350 km to the South sector

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

Tropical Cyclone Fytia is located less than 30 km off the coast of Madagascar, near the province of Mahajanga. It is expected to make landfall within the next two hours east of Cape Saint-André. It is then expected to move out again on Sunday along the east coast of Madagascar and pass south

[Hurricane2022]

Landfall

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Fytia


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 982 hPa.

Position on January 31 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.4 South / 45.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1140 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 390 km to the South sector

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

Tropical Cyclone FYTIA made landfall in northwestern Madagascar (Mahajanga Province) late last night (Saturday, January 31, around 1:30 UTC, or 4:30 Malagasy time). The eye made landfall near Cape Amparafaka, close to the towns of Maroalika and Soalala, 75 km east-northeast of Cape Saint-André and 120 km west of Mahajanga. This is the same landfall location as Cyclone Belna in December 2019. At the time of landfall, FYTIA was at its maximum intensity, at the upper end of the tropical cyclone stage, making it the most powerful storm to hit this province since Andry in 1983, and slightly stronger than Belna in 2019.

- The system is expected to weaken as it moves over Madagascar on Saturday. It should emerge again on Sunday morning along the central-east coast.

Its trajectory is expected to continue southeast, with re-intensification into a strong tropical storm anticipated from Sunday evening. It will pass off the southwest coast of the Mascarene Islands on Monday.