Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Just saw we lost Catherine O Hara this morning, absolutely devastating loss. Home Alone is going to hit different now.

[bubba hotep]

Think we will start to see more of this showing up in the longer range on the models

[Golfisnoteasy75]

From a different angle. Conversely sometimes using anti-logs (the opposite pattern) can also help with probabilities. A group of warm analogs below you can see the 500mb pattern during such periods where winter ended in February. The ridges and troughs are total opposites of the upcoming planetary pattern expected. Which tells you a quick, abrupt end to winter in February ++AO is the lowest outcome. Sorry wxman57 no 90s for you. We wouldn't call cold if nothing showed it, so really can't call warmth either if nothing has it.

https://i.imgur.com/AKxit1H.png

https://i.imgur.com/gtg77vv.gif

These tools are important in forecasting and how one can avoid the ups and downs of model-ology and beat them.

I am hopeful we have one and maybe two more opportunities this winter and hope those analogs come to fruition for February. That would be impressive if it happened or even close

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS looks really good, but of course, it’s two weeks out. Saying that though, that seems to be our target date anyway so hopefully it has some legs to it.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The 18z GEFS looks really good, but of course, it’s two weeks out. Saying that though, that seems to be our target date anyway so hopefully it has some legs to it.

Typically from experience if there is going to be a colder pattern, it usually gets moved up in time, and not delayed. Something I've always noticed.

[Stratton23]

I mean our latest outbreak started two weeks out in the ensembles, thats usually how it goes, this will start moving up in time as we get closer to the target day for changes

[Quixotic]

Are those echoes approaching the red river on the radar or virga? Either way I say L-E-S!

[Brent]

Are those echoes approaching the red river on the radar or virga? Either way I say L-E-S!

Mostly virga up here but maybe it'll pick up more moisture heading towards the Gulf

[bubba hotep]

Are those echoes approaching the red river on the radar or virga? Either way I say L-E-S!

Some mPING reports farther north with that batch of returns.

[bubba hotep]

The 18z GEFS looks really good, but of course, it’s two weeks out. Saying that though, that seems to be our target date anyway so hopefully it has some legs to it.

Two runs a row, does that make a trend lol

[Sambucol2024]

The 18z GEFS looks really good, but of course, it’s two weeks out. Saying that though, that seems to be our target date anyway so hopefully it has some legs to it.

Two runs a row, does that make a trend lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026013018/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Bring that down all the way to the upper Texas coast, please!

[Quixotic]

The 18z GEFS looks really good, but of course, it’s two weeks out. Saying that though, that seems to be our target date anyway so hopefully it has some legs to it.

Two runs a row, does that make a trend lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026013018/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Looks like banding to me.

[Stratton23]

GFS has a ton of arctic air getting dislodged into the lower 48 on the 12th, including texas, thats quite the brutal run with 2 winter storms

[Snowman67]

00Z GFS gives SE TX a couple shots at winter weather 12-15th

[Harp.1]

GFS has a ton of arctic air getting dislodged into the lower 48 on the 12th, including texas, thats quite the brutal run with 2 winter storms

Both actually include south Louisiana this time

[Brent]

Wow at least 5 days straight below freezing here at the end of the GFS

That would top what we did this past week easily. As theres still areas in my apartment complex covered in snow

Euro also has a winter storm here on the 12th and 13th. Actually some consistency in the idea at least tonight