Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

Winter's over.....

[Ntxw]

Mild stretch (Hello first week of February!) not a bad time to prep your lawns for spring. Winter over-canceled-hasta la vista!

FYI: We are now in phase 8 of the MJO - cold east.

[bubba hotep]

Plenty of time to work out the details, but this would be a very impressive blizzard for the Panhandles. Enjoy the warm stretch.

[Ntxw]

Plenty of time to work out the details, but this would be a very impressive blizzard for the Panhandles. Enjoy the warm stretch.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026020112/378/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

The intermountain west needs a deep trough, not a baja low undercutting ridge we just had. They are dire, places that get 50+ inches of snow have seen less than an inch. I just hope the troughs out west don't trend eastward for their sake.

[Stratton23]

just my two cents here, i think we are seeing a delay in the pattern, models may have been too quick with trying to flip the pattern, im targeting the 14/15th for changes, thats when ensembles pull back some - EPO back into Alaska, this happened with our last cold air outbreak , models were too quick with - EPO returning, and their was some pushback in the models, but the pattern did happen, I think the same thing here, I acknowledge the risk for pacific air, but i still have to lean more towards a colder outlook because of whats going on in the stratosphere and that ensembles still see the ridge trying to show up again in alaska. Now if we get to my target period and nothings change, then we are most definitely in trouble

[Ntxw]

just my two cents here, i think we are seeing a delay in the pattern, models may have been too quick with trying to flip the pattern, im targeting the 14/15th for changes, thats when ensembles pull back some - EPO back into Alaska, this happened with our last cold air outbreak , models were too quick with - EPO returning, and their was some pushback in the models, but the pattern did happen, I think the same thing here, I acknowledge the risk for pacific air, but i still have to lean more towards a colder outlook because of whats going on in the stratosphere and that ensembles still see the ridge trying to show up again in alaska. Now if we get to my target period and nothings change, then we are most definitely in trouble

We'll have to wait it out and see. The models were trying to show cold air during the period that is coming up to be warm (I never bought into it staying cold early feb), because it was already cold. And now that it is going warm they may try to stay warm. It's just one of those things when patterns transitions, there is a lot of low confidence in guidance. P8 and P1 (nina) in February is warm for us. P2 and 3 of the MJO is cold. The SPV SSW is also a bottom up->then down type event.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw GEFS/ EPS try to bypass P8/1 and slow down into 2/3, we will see if that happens, we will see if im right or not about my target date for changes, i called our last pattern 2 weeks out haha, so im either going down on a sinking ship this time around or models will come around to what I think may happen lol

[Ntxw]

Ntxw GEFS/ EPS try to bypass P8/1 and slow down into 2/3, we will see if that happens, we will see if im right or not about my target date for changes, i called our last pattern 2 weeks out haha, so im either going down on a sinking ship this time around or models will come around to what I think may happen lol

You did! Also below was my post waaay back in Jan 20th. So the next week or two is not really that much of a surprise. Sink or swim.

We will lose some cold source air up in Canada most of the continent will actually be very warm due to the Pacific flow coming in with the Aleution low. However cross polar flow sets up after that and it is likely in the second week of February and beyond that we will have a fresh cold source with blocking over the top to really deliver.

[Cpv17]

Man, things have changed quickly in the past 24 hours. Maybe the models are struggling with the transition period.

[DallasAg]

Plenty of time to work out the details, but this would be a very impressive blizzard for the Panhandles. Enjoy the warm stretch.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026020112/378/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

The intermountain west needs a deep trough, not a baja low undercutting ridge we just had. They are dire, places that get 50+ inches of snow have seen less than an inch. I just hope the troughs out west don't trend eastward for their sake.

THIS. It's not just about salvaging ski season for them. This could be a really nasty fire season in late summer if there's not a decent snow pack built up. Blue Mesa Reservoir in Gunnison County is the largest lake in Colorado, and water releases from it will feed Utah and Arizona. Snowmelt from the western slope fills it, so a low snow season would also trickle (pun) downstream to other areas. And once you start building drought, you have to worry about heat domes and the feedback loop it starts to create. We obviously want/need the moisture too, but the further west you go the more dire this is going to become. Hopefully a well-timed El Nino can start pumping moisture where it's needed, and at this point we're probably going to have to hope that we have a really good monsoon season for the west.

[DallasAg]

DFW got up to 31F for a high. With clear sunny skies today. Very impressive for no cloud cover or significant ice/snow on the ground.

With all of the wild swings in the weather in January, DFW ended the month only 0.1F above average. Torch to start, icebox to finish...kinda averaged itself out I guess.

[Cpv17]

DFW got up to 31F for a high. With clear sunny skies today. Very impressive for no cloud cover or significant ice/snow on the ground.

With all of the wild swings in the weather in January, DFW ended the month only 0.1F above average. Torch to start, icebox to finish...kinda averaged itself out I guess.

I’m a big believer in that Mother Nature will always find a way to balance things out. I tell that to everyone.

[txtwister78]

Ntxw GEFS/ EPS try to bypass P8/1 and slow down into 2/3, we will see if that happens, we will see if im right or not about my target date for changes, i called our last pattern 2 weeks out haha, so im either going down on a sinking ship this time around or models will come around to what I think may happen lol

I believe your target period was mid month in Jan and I mentioned late month as the period to watch and so why is that relevant? Well the models were trying to rush the cold mid month then also despite the signals via the mjo/teleconnections not in alignment yet but the signals were aligning via the mjo and our teleconnections for the models to eventually flip later in the month of Jan and that's why I raise the point about timing and what to look for.

The "problem" is now that we're getting later into our winter calendar for Texas our clock is ticking especially for folks further south into the state and so the longer this warm period persist the less likely we would see anything noteworthy climatologicaly speaking and so I agree with you that the clues once again should come from the mjo and teleconnections but as ntxw mentioned we knew this mild period was coming. Just a question of whether we come out of it in time to get one more shot at "real" winter weather before it's all said and done.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Of of talk on social media about mid February but it’s all from the hype train clickbait weather pages where most of what they say doesn’t happen..

[gpsnowman]

Beautiful winter day. Light jacket weather and temps still in the upper 40s. About to walk the dogs and enjoy the sunshine.

[Stratton23]

If you want cold to return, id be rooting for the Euro and JMA models in terms of the MJO progression, both go into and drastically slow down in either P2 or P3 by the 15th, we will see, I just want one more good shot of cold air before utter misery sets in

[Stratton23]

But i do see the warm risk here as well, PV predictions today on the models, well you definitely do not want that happening, but i still am holding firm believe we get one more chance before the big suck returns

[Lastcall88]

Que the “ winters over “ comments

Would love this

[Stratton23]

another way we could get a - EPO ridge to pop off, ive been noticing all day that the GEFS has been steadily shifting more west into central and northwestern canada with the - NAO, it’s possible if we keep seeing shifts west with the - NAO, that it could eventually lead to seeding - EPO development in the alaska

[Tireman4]

Winter cancel! (lol)