Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
316 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

* Hazardous conditions for small boat continue today along the
offshore Atlantic waters, but conditions will gradually improve
by tonight. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating these
waters.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, lots of sunshine is expected
through the first half of the day, with a few showers reaching
the islands later in the afternoon and evening hours.

* Partly cloudy skies will persist across Puerto Rico today, with
showers developing in the interior and west this afternoon. No
flooding risk is anticipated with these showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

During the overnight hours, clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed
across much of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with passing
showers brushing coastal areas at times. However, shower activity
gradually decreased toward the early morning hours as a dry slot
approached from the east. GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicated values
dropping below one inch within this drier air mass, supporting a
notable reduction in rainfall coverage and intensity. As a result,
mostly fair weather conditions with little to no rainfall are
expected during the morning hours today.

A few showers may still develop during the afternoon hours,
primarily over interior and western portions of Puerto Rico due to
local effects and diurnal heating, but activity is expected to be
less frequent and less widespread than observed on yesterday.

For the remainder of the short-term period, a mid-level ridge is
forecast to build and settle over the northeastern Caribbean. This
pattern will promote mid-level drying and increased subsidence,
along with warming near the 500 mb level, resulting in reduced
instability aloft. Precipitable water values will continue to
fluctuate as patches of shallow moisture move across the islands
from time to time. Consequently, mostly fair weather conditions are
expected to prevail, with passing showers affecting windward coastal
areas during the nighttime and morning hours, and some afternoon
shower development over interior and western sections of Puerto Rico
each day. The frequency and coverage of these showers will largely
depend on the timing and extent of these moisture patches.

Breezy easterly winds will continue today, particularly across
coastal and exposed areas. However, winds are expected to gradually
diminish through the end of the short-term forecast period as the
surface high pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward and
a col approaches from the northwest, weakening the pressure gradient
across the northeastern Caribbean.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

The mid to upper level ridge will hold on Wednesday. At the low
levels, limited moisture in anticipated, so fair weather should
persist until then. Then, there are some changes in store Thursday
onward. First, a polar trough will weaken the pressure gradient,
causing winds to become lighter. Surface steering flow will fall to
nearly 9 knots on Thursday to about 2-6 knots on Friday. The polar
trough will escort a cold front near Hispaniola and Cuba, with winds
shifting from the south from the surface into the mid levels of the
atmosphere. As a result, warmer than normal temperatures are
anticipated. Also, the shift in winds will bring a slot of dry air
on Thursday, followed by increasing moisture Friday onward. With
light winds on Friday, showers are expected to form in the
Cordillera Central, where urban and small stream flooding could
occur. Then, on the weekend, additional moisture will approach
from the south, and also from the north (associated with the cold
front). Increasing shower frequency is expected for the Caribbean
and Atlantic waters. The proximity of the cold front will cause
winds to weaken again on Sunday, with speeds of 1 to 5 knots and
variable wind speeds. The global models also show the front
crossing late on Sunday, which could cause another increase in
showers and thunderstorms across the area.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all terminals thru the fcst period.
Passing SHRA may affect mainly windward terminals at times, but no
sig VIS or CIGs restrictions are expected. Winds will remain from
the E–ENE at 10–16 kt with higher gusts possible, especially aft
25/14Z.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

A building high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, north of
the islands, will bring moderate to fresh tonight through Monday.
Winds will remain moderate toward the middle portion of the week as
the high rolls into the central and eastern Atlantic. Showers will
be less frequent today, moving across the Atlantic and Caribbean
waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

Breezy conditions will maintain a moderate rip current risk for
the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for
Vieques, Culebra and all the beaches across the Virgin Islands.
Similar conditions are expected to persist through the upcoming
days, with only the west, south, and southwest of Puerto Rico with
a low risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
417 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

* Wind-driven seas will continue to produce choppy marine conditions
today, gradually subsiding as winds decrease during the week.

* Hazardous seas and coastal conditions may return next weekend as a
long-period northerly swell and an approaching frontal boundary
affect the regional waters.

* Passing showers will affect the islands at times, with a low risk
of minor flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

* Shower activity is expected to increase by late next weekend as
a weakening frontal boundary and increasing moisture approach
the region, with a potential for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Showers were observed during the night hours around the Caribbean
and Atlantic waters, with some showers reaching St. John and St.
Thomas and eastern Puerto Rico. However, Multi-radar Multi-sensor
rainfall accumulation only showed amounts below ten hundredth of an
inch. Skies were variably cloudy, and temperatures cooled down to
the low 70s in coastal areas and the mid-60s in the mountains.

Surface high pressure continue to roll toward the eastern Atlantic,
maintain the gradient relatively strong today. Winds will be coming
out of the east southeast at 15 to 20 knots with stronger gusts. As
the high moves farther away, winds will relax a little, at nearly 10
knots. Today, satellite derived precipitable water imagery shows a
little area of dry air reaching the Virgin Islands and eastern
Puerto Rico in the morning hours. However, an area of enhanced
moisture will filter in just in time for local effects to kick in.
With the breezy winds, streamers are favored across the Cordillera
Central, from El Yunque into the San Juan metro area, westward of
the Virgin Islands, and across western Puerto Rico. Shower activity
could lead to ponding of water on roadways and low-lying areas.
Isolated urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out.
Tomorrow, the trade winds will bring another patch of moisture into
the islands, so expect similar weather conditions. The risk of
flooding will be low, and focused on western Puerto Rico. On
Wednesday, precipitable water values fall well below normal. With
this drier than normal air, mostly fair weather is anticipated,
although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Southeast winds will cause temperatures to climb up. At this time,
925 mb temperatures will be nearly one standard deviation above
normal. Highs will be around 87 to 89 degrees in coastal areas, with
lows still comfortable, around the 70s in coastal areas and in the
60s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

The overall synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through
the early part of the period. Ridging aloft will persist across the
region through at least Friday, while limited low-level moisture
supports generally fair weather conditions. As a result, stable
conditions are expected to continue, with only brief passing showers
mainly driven by patches of moisture streaming across the area from
time to time.

Changes in the pattern become more noticeable toward the latter part
of the weekend. Global model guidance continues to suggest
increasing moisture associated with a weakening frontal boundary,
although the timing of this feature has been pushed back. Moisture
advection from the south ahead of the approaching boundary remains a
consistent signal among global models, particularly by late Sunday.
This increase in moisture, combined with modest instability, will
support a higher frequency of showers, especially across the
Caribbean waters and western sections of Puerto Rico. The Galvez-
Davison Index indicates elevated values near the frontal boundary,
suggesting an increased potential for heavy rainfall-producing
thunderstorms approaching from the west as the boundary nears the
islands.

Potential impacts by the end of the period include periods of
locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and ponding of water
in poor drainage areas, with a limited risk of urban and small-
stream flooding. Gusty wind conditions may also accompany convective
activity, particularly near thunderstorms.

Southeasterly to southerly low-level flow ahead of the boundary will
develop late by the end of the week into the weekend, promoting
above normal temperatures across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA will move across the
local waters all day today. After 17Z, SHRA expected to increase
along the Cordillera Central, potentially reaching TJSJ and TJBQ at
times. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected. It
stays breezy today, with winds from SFC to FL050 at 17-21 kts, with
stronger gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

A building high-pressure system centered over the western Atlantic
and gradually moving eastward will continue to promote moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds through at least today. Winds are
expected to gradually ease from midweek into late week as the high
shifts farther east into the central Atlantic. Looking ahead to next
weekend, a long-period northerly swell is expected to reach the
regional Atlantic waters, which may result in hazardous marine
conditions, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Breezy conditions continue across the regional waters, maintaining
choppy seas and a moderate risk of rip currents along most exposed
beaches. The highest risk remains along the north- and east-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as the U.S.
Virgin Islands, where lingering wind-driven seas continue to enhance
rip current formation.

Winds are expected to gradually subside through the week; however,
periodic pulses of weak northerly swells will move through the
region, sustaining moderate rip current risks along northern exposed
beaches of the islands. As a result, life-threatening rip currents
will remain possible, particularly at beaches exposed to the
Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

* Small Craft Advisory and High Rip Current Risk are in effect
today, as a northerly swell impacts the offshore Atlantic waters
and northern exposed beaches.

* Hazardous seas and coastal conditions may return this weekend due
to the arrival of another northerly swell, potentially affecting
the Atlantic waters and north-facing coastlines.

* Passing showers will affect the islands at times with afternoon
shower activities over western Puerto Rico. At most, ponding of
water in roads and poorly drained areas.

* There is a medium chance of observing an increase in shower
coverage and isolated thunderstorms this weekend as tropical
moisture moves into the region, with a potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mostly clear skies gave way to cool temperatures during the
overnight hours. Some places in the interior of Puerto Rico
registered values below 60 degrees. Coastal areas in the west had
lows in the mid and upper 60s, while eastern Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands saw values in the low and mid 70s. Some showers
managed to form across the Caribbean and Atlantic waters, but almost
no activity was detected over land areas.

The surface high that it's driving the trade winds from the east
southeast is now centered over the eastern Atlantic. The gradient
has weaken since yesterday, and winds speeds should be at 10 to 15
mph. Aloft, a ridge is in placed over the central Caribbean, with
dry air in the mid levels. The most recent satellite derived
precipitable water imagery confirms that a small area of moisture
will cross the local islands today. Showers should increase a little
in the morning, mostly for eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Since the patch of moisture should cross Puerto Rico at mid-
day, it is likely that some showers will develop along the interior
and west, leading to ponding of water in roadways and low lying
areas. Once this patch of moisture cross, conditions dry out quickly
tonight, with dew point depressions of 20 to 30 degrees Celsius
expected.

For tomorrow and Thursday, the atmosphere becomes more stable, with
500 mb temperatures about two standard deviation warmer than normal.
Regardless, the trade winds will continue to carry small patches of
moisture near the area. Tomorrow, the probability of precipitation
is about 30-40% for the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, and
50% for western Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours. However,
accumulations are expected to be on the light side. Thursday looks
drier once again, at least in the morning and early afternoon hours.
Winds will become lighter, and coming from the south-southeasterly.
Thicknesses at 1000-850 mb will increase, and hence, it will feel
warmer too, with highs in the upper 80s in coastal and low elevated
areas.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged through the
long-term period, with a frontal boundary approaching the region
from the northwest. Southerly to southeasterly low-level flow ahead
of this boundary will continue, promoting above normal temperatures
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Based on the latest global model guidance, Friday is expected to be
the relatively less active day of the period, as deeper moisture
remains south of the area. Conditions are forecast to become
progressively wetter over the weekend as southerly flow strengthens
and begins to pull tropical moisture over the region, earlier than
indicated in previous model cycles.

Precipitable water values are forecast to increase beginning
Saturday, rising from near 1.3 inches on Friday to near or above 2.0
inches by Saturday and Sunday, which is well above normal for this
time of year. This increase in moisture will support higher shower
coverage and rainfall intensity, particularly during the weekend and
into early next week.

At upper levels, the region will be positioned between an upper-
level trough to the northwest and a ridge to the southeast, with
favorable dynamics aloft depending on the exact placement and
evolution of the trough. Nevertheless, sufficient instability may
remain in the vicinity, and when combined with daytime heating,
local effects, and sea breeze convergence, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, mainly during the afternoon hours across
interior and northwest/northern Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with the strongest convection.

Potential impacts include ponding of water in urban and poorly
drained areas, as well as localized urban and small stream flooding,
particularly from Saturday through Monday. Gusty winds may also
accompany heavier showers and any isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. Moisture surge will
increase showers after 14Z along eastern PR/USVI. From 15-21Z, SHRA
will develop along the Cordillera Central, likely reaching TJPS at
times. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Winds are gradually easing as the surface high pressure shifts
farther east into the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds will prevail through midweek turning light by the end
of the week. However, a northerly swell will result in hazardous
seas across the offshore Atlantic waters through this evening.
Looking ahead to next weekend, another long-period northerly swell is
expected to reach the regional Atlantic waters, which may result in
hazardous marine conditions once again, particularly across the
offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Breezy wind conditions across the regional waters are gradually
subsiding; however, a northerly swell is moving into the Atlantic
waters today. Buoy 41043 is already reporting a swell near 6 feet
with periods of 10 to 11 seconds. As a result, estimated breaking
waves of approximately 6 to 8 feet are anticipated along the
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico. These conditions will
support a High Risk of rip currents through at least this evening
for the north-facing beaches of the island.

Across the smaller islands, including Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, lingering swell energy will continue to maintain a
moderate to locally high risk of rip currents, especially along
north-facing and exposed beaches.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to follow local beach safety guidance
and avoid entering the water at beaches with posted high rip current
risk.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

* Relatively stable weather conditions is expected through Friday,
with brief morning showers in eastern areas of Puerto Rico and
USVI and afternoon showers developing over western Puerto Rico;
minor ponding on roads is possible.

* An approaching frontal boundary could bring increasing showers and
thunderstorms this weekend into early next week, accompanied by
lightning and gusty winds. Flooding threats may increase from
limited to elevated, including urban and small stream flooding,
especially in areas where heavy rainfall persists.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the potential for heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms appears lower this weekend into early next week, as
the most active weather is currently expected to remain west of
the islands. However, passing showers and isolated thunderstorms
are still possible.

* Marine and coastal conditions may become hazardous by early next
week, with increasing winds and building seas affecting small
craft, along with an elevated rip current risk along north-
facing beaches, creating dangerous swimming conditions at
exposed locations.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

Overnight, relatively calm conditions and mostly clear skies
prevailed across the region. Consequently, cool temperatures were
observed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with
minimums ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s in lower elevations
and the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher mountains of Puerto
Rico. Passing showers were noted primarily over the Anegada Passage,
west of St. Croix, and south of Vieques.

Today, local weather will be influenced by surface high pressure
over the central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper-level ridge,
maintaining stable and relatively dry conditions aloft. However, a
patch of low-level moisture carried by the trade winds will filter
into the area, bringing rounds of morning showers to the U.S. Virgin
Islands and portions of eastern and northern Puerto Rico, including
the San Juan metro area. By this afternoon, activity will shift
toward western and northwestern Puerto Rico, driven by daytime
heating and orographic effects. Streamer activity is also possible
from El Yunque toward the San Juan metro area, potentially resulting
in additional afternoon showers. While precipitable water values
will start below the climatological normal at 1.30 inches, they are
expected to rise to an above-normal 1.75 inches by the afternoon.
This setup poses a limited flooding risk, primarily involving
ponding on roads and in areas with poor drainage.

A similar pattern is expected Thursday and Friday, with drier air
filtering in during the early morning followed by another
disturbance that will trigger showers from mid-morning onward.
Conditions will become increasingly unstable late Friday into
Saturday as moisture from a frontal boundary and tropical moisture
from the Caribbean approach the region.

Throughout the short term, temperatures at the 925 mb level will
remain slightly above climatological normals. Maximum temperatures
are forecast to reach the mid-80s in lower elevations and the mid-to-
upper 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

The synoptic pattern is forecast to remain generally unchanged
through the long-term period, with a frontal boundary lingering near
the local area. A southerly to southeasterly low-level flow ahead of
this boundary will persist, continuing to advect warm and moist air
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result, above-
normal temperatures are expected to persist through the period.

Global model guidance continues to indicate an increase in available
moisture beginning Saturday, with precipitable water values rising
to near 2.0 inches or higher and remaining above climatological
normals through early next week. Low- to mid-level moisture,
particularly below 700 mb, is forecast to remain elevated. Although
some drying at mid levels (around 700-500 mb) is suggested at times,
the overall moisture profile should remain sufficient to support
periods of enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity.

At upper levels, the region is expected to remain between an upper-
level trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast,
providing periods of favorable upper-level dynamics depending on the
exact placement and evolution of these features. This pattern,
combined with persistent low-level moisture convergence along the
nearby frontal boundary, will support increasing rainfall coverage,
particularly from Sunday through Tuesday.

Recent guidance continues to suggest a signal for above-normal
rainfall across portions of the forecast area early next week. Of
note, ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index output consistently highlights a
rainfall signal several days in advance, which is somewhat
surprising given the lead time and suggests increasing ensemble
agreement toward a wetter-than-normal pattern. While confidence in
the exact timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of rainfall
remains limited at this range, the persistence of the signal
supports a continued potential for locally heavy rainfall,
especially where showers and thunderstorms repeatedly affect the
same areas. Some uncertainty remains with respect to the exact
placement of the frontal boundary, as a westward position closer to
Hispaniola would result in reduced low-level convergence and
consequently less widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage across
the local forecast area.

Diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence will
continue to play a role in convective development each afternoon,
depending on the persistence of cloud cover, mainly across interior
and western to northwestern Puerto Rico. Potential impacts include
ponding of water on roadways, urban and small stream flooding, and
localized flooding, particularly in areas that receive repeated
rounds of rainfall. Gusty winds may accompany heavier showers or
isolated thunderstorms.

Overall, the long-term period is expected to remain unsettled, with
the primary concerns being above-normal rainfall and localized
flooding potential through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all TAF sites
during the next 24 hrs. A patch of low-level moisture surge will
increase SHRA aft 28/14Z across eastern PR and the USVI. Later this
afternoon SHRA will develop along central PR and spreading toward
the northwest portions of PR, affecting TJBQ aft 28/17Z. Periods of
reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected with the strongest
activity. East winds will prevail from 10-15 kt with stronger gusts
and sea breeze variations aft 28/13-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through the end of the
week as surface high pressure shifts eastward, with seas generally
subsiding across the local waters. By early next week, a
northwesterly to northerly long-period swell is expected to reach
the regional waters by Monday, combining with increasing winds to
produce choppy to rough seas and potentially hazardous marine
conditions, including Small Craft Advisory criteria, particularly
across the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. An increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this
weekend into early next week, especially over the northwestern
Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, with lightning and gusty
winds possible.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

A series of weak northerly swells will continue to reach the
Atlantic waters through the week and into the weekend, maintaining a
moderate rip current risk along most north-facing beaches of the
islands, where life-threatening rip currents are possible. Localized
areas of high rip current risk cannot be ruled out, particularly
along the most exposed beaches during periods of higher swell energy.

Beach conditions may further deteriorate by early next week due to
increasing winds and the arrival of a northwesterly to northerly
long-period swell, which could result in more hazardous surf
conditions. In addition, showers and thunderstorms, especially from
this weekend into early next week, may produce gusty winds,
lightning, and rapidly changing conditions, increasing the risk for
beachgoers.

[cycloneye]

National Weather Service San Juan PR
355 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

* Mostly fair and stable weather conditions are expected through
Friday, with brief morning showers across eastern areas of
Puerto Rico and the USVI, and afternoon showers developing over
western and northwestern Puerto Rico; minor ponding on roads is
possible.

* There is an increasing risk of urban and small stream flooding
from the weekend into early next week with the approach of a
frontal boundary from the west of the region.

* A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon
to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers
away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to
return to safety.

* For boaters, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
northern offshore waters through tonight.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

A moist shallow layer up to 8kft brought mostly cloudy skies
overnight and light passing showers across the regional waters.
Minor rainfall accumulations were observed over portions of the USVI
and eastern PR. Minimum temperatures were from the low and mid 70s
across the lower elevations to the low 60s across the higher
elevations. The wind was light and variable over land areas. For the
rest of the morning hours passing showers will continue to move at
times across the east and southern portions of PR, followed by
moderate to locally heavy showers developing over the NW quadrant of
PR this afternoon. The precipitable water content is expected to
fluctuate between 1.00-1.50 inches through the rest of the short
term period.

For Friday, a weak induced surface trough will bring another surge
in low-level moisture content, enhancing morning showers across the
USVI and inducing the development of shallow afternoon convection
over the mountain ranges of PR. Winds are expected to turn more
southerly by Friday under the influence of a weak surface high
pressure east of the region and frontal boundary to our north. These
winds are expected to steer showers across the northern coastal
areas of PR late in the afternoon hours.

A gradual trend into a wetter pattern is still expected for Saturday
as pooling of moisture continues across the eastern Caribbean under
a deep layer southerly wind flow. The flood risk is expected to
increase in general during the weekend, residents and visitors are
urged to monitor the weather conditions.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering
over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global
models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content
to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals,
from Sunday through midweek.

At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a
trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast
through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement
and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level
dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is
expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant
potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next
week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of
Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and
local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across
portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front
passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing
rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern
portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday
through Wednesday.

Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and
small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated
thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier
shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to
remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal
rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should
continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with
mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm
29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds
will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts aft 29/14z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through the end of the
week as surface high pressure shifts eastward, with seas generally
subsiding across the local waters with the exception of some pulses
of swell arriving from time to time.

By Monday, a northwesterly to northerly long- period swell is
expected to reach the regional waters, combining with increasing
winds to produce choppy to rough seas and potentially hazardous
marine conditions, including Small Craft Advisory criteria across
the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. An increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into
early next week, especially over the northwestern Atlantic waters
and the Mona Passage, with lightning and gusty winds possible.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026

Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the
Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the
strongest pulse expected this afternoon. A high rip current risk
is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through tonight. Beachgoers are
encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing
conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes
difficult to return to safety.

Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may
further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and
the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period
swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions.
Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers
and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week,
increasing risks for beachgoers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
333 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

* An approaching frontal boundary will increase the risk of urban
and small stream flooding across the islands from Saturday
onward.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the primary hazard will remain
dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous seas in the near
term. An increased risk of flooding is anticipated next week,
particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

* There is a high rip current risk from Rincon to Fajardo,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday
afternoon. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes
difficult to return to safety.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mostly clear skies were observed across the islands during the
night. Passing light showers ahead of the passage of a weak surface
trough were increasing from the Anegada Passage by 30/06z. Minimum
temperatures were from the upper 60s to low 70s across coastal areas
to the upper 50s in the higher elevations of PR. Across the USVI,
lows were in the mid 70s. The wind was light and variable over land
areas.

The main hazard today will be the life-threatening rip currents
along the northern beaches of PR, Culebra, and St. Thomas.

A brief surge in moisture content is expected today with the passage
of a weak trough, currently located east of the Anegada Passage.
There will be a mix of sunshine and clouds with occasional passing
showers across the USVI this morning. Followed by moderate showers
developing in the afternoon over the eastern and northern half of PR.

A gradual trend into a wetter pattern is expected during the
weekend. As the local area lies between an approaching deep layer
trough from the western Atlantic and associated frontal boundary,
and as pooling of moisture continues across the eastern Caribbean
under a deep layer southerly wind flow. The flood risk is expected
to increase in general across the islands during the weekend,
residents and visitors are urged to monitor the weather conditions.
&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

An unsettled and wet pattern will persist through the long-term
period as a frontal boundary approaches the region. This boundary,
combined with tropical moisture drawn from South America and the
Caribbean, will enhance instability and rainfall potential through
the end of the workweek. Recent global model runs suggest
precipitable water values will remain well above seasonal
climatological norms, ranging between 2.00 and 2.25 inches for most
of the period.

At the upper levels, the forecast remains on track. An upper-level
trough is positioned over the western Atlantic, while a ridge stays
to the east-southeast of the local area through late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Under this scenario, the combination of upper-
level dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along
the frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall and the
possibility of thunderstorms starting Monday.

As the front moves closer, winds will shift from a south-southwest
component to a north-northeasterly flow by Monday night. This
pattern will persist through at least Thursday, at which point winds
will become more easterly as the frontal boundary begins to exit the
region.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest a wet start to the
workweek, with Monday and Tuesday expected to be the most active
days. This activity is driven by the frontal passage and moisture
influx from the Caribbean, combined with daytime heating and local
orographic effects. Currently, there is an elevated flooding
potential across portions of northern and western Puerto Rico on
Monday, shifting to eastern and southern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and
Vieques by Tuesday. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the risk remains
limited at this time.

Residents and visitors should closely monitor weather conditions
next week, particularly if planning outdoor activities. Stay
informed!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
through the fcst period. However, a weak surface trough will
increase SHRA in and around the USVI terminals early this morning,
and near TJSJ/TJBQ through the afternoon hours. This may result in
tempo MVFR conds across these terminals. ESE winds increasing 8-12
kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts across the northern
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the
waters at least until today, then shifting from the southeast in
response to a surface high pressure shifting eastward over the
central Atlantic. For the upcoming workweek, a larger, long period
northerly swell is expected to build seas up to around 10 feet.
An unsettled weather pattern is forecast across the region for
early next week, increasing the shower and thunderstorm potential
due to an approaching front and a trough.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 306 AM AST Fri Jan 30 2026

Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the
Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the
strongest pulse expected through this afternoon. A High Rip
Current Risk continues in effect for the beaches from Rincon to
Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through
this afternoon as well. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the
forecast for updates and changing conditions. Please remember, rip
currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into
deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety.

Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may
further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and
the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period
swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions.
Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers
and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week,
increasing risks for beachgoers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
433 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

* The flood risk increases from today through midweek. Urban and
small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor
landslides in areas of steep terrain are possible, particularly
from late Sunday through Tuesday. Residents and visitors are
urged to avoid small streams, creeks, and other recreational
areas near rivers.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected today across the
northern beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra and the
northern USVI. A large, long-period northerly swell and
increasing winds will bring hazardous seas and life-threatening
rip currents across most waters and coastal areas of the islands
from Monday onward. Rough surf and life-threatening rip currents
are expected. Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding are
likely in the most vulnerable coastal areas.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the weekend into early
next week, bringing localized lightning and brief gusty winds.

* Across the USVI, sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected this
morning, followed by an increase in cloudiness and shower
activity from this afternoon through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

Overnight, conditions were mostly fair across the islands, though
passing showers affected portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands,
southern and southeastern Puerto Rico. Doppler radar indicated
minimal rainfall accumulation. Minimum temperatures ranged from the
upper 60s to low 70s in lower elevations, while the higher mountains
of Puerto Rico saw the mid 60s, with even cooler temperatures in
localized areas such as Jayuya and Adjuntas.

Today, moisture will increase as a trough lifts from the
southeastern Caribbean into the local area. Analysis shows
precipitable water values are well above normal, ranging from 1.75
to 2.00 inches. Consequently, shower frequency will increase
throughout the morning across the U.S. Virgin Islands, southern and
eastern Puerto Rico, shifting toward the northwestern and northern
regions during the afternoon.

This moist environment, positioned between a frontal boundary to the
west and a ridge to the east will persist through the end of the
workweek. Enhanced mid-to-upper-level instability will promote
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms.
Starting Monday, the combination of upper-level dynamics and low-
level moisture convergence along the frontal boundary will support
widespread rain.

The flood risk remains limited to elevated throughout the period.
Potential impacts include: ponding of water on roadways, urban and
small-stream flooding, localized flash flooding and gusty winds near
heavier shower activity.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue through midweek. While
maximum temperatures will be above normal today, slightly warmer
conditions are possible from Sunday into Monday. Residents and
visitors should closely monitor weather updates, especially when
planning outdoor activities.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

The frontal boundary is expected to linger near the local area
through midweek, as a weak area of high pressure rolls from the
western Atlantic and passes just north of the area into the
central Atlantic by the end of the workweek. A series of deep-
layer lows/troughs will continue to move from the western into the
north-central Atlantic, promoting colder than normal 500 mb
temperatures and favorable conditions for thunderstorm development
on Wednesday and Thursday. Another approaching front is expected
to reach the local area once again by Saturday. These weather
features will keep higher than normal moisture content over the
islands, and a wet and unsettled weather period is expected to
prevail through the long-term period. Therefore, if the expected
weather in the short-term period materializes, any additional
excessive period of heavy rainfall over saturated soils will lead
to quick flooding and possible minor landslides in areas of steep
terrain.

Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail through Wednesday, turning
more east to southeasterly from Thursday onward, and becoming
light and variable on Saturday as the front moves closer to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

Mainly VFR conditions across all terminals thru 31/14Z. An
approaching trough and a frontal boundary will increase the
frequency of SHRA today, affecting TJPS, TJBQ and TJSJ aft31/13-14Z.
This may result in tempo MVFR conds across these terminals. SHRA may
affect most and all TAF sites. SE winds 10–15 kt with sea-breeze
variability and ocnl higher gusts near SHRA, weakening overnight,
then increasing again on Sunday with sustained winds arnd 14–18 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

Moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds are expected today.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic
waters due to seas up to 7 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to
gradually ease on Sunday. However, by early Monday morning, a
large, long-period northerly swell is expected to arrive,
building seas up to 12 feet through midweek. In addition, an
unsettled weather pattern will bring more frequent showers and
isolated thunderstorms, which could locally create hazardous
marine conditions or exacerbate existing hazards.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sat Jan 31 2026

A lingering northerly swell of around 4 feet will continue to
promote a high risk of rip currents across all northern exposed
beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra and the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

A stronger, long-period northerly to north-northwesterly swell is
forecast to arrive Monday and persist through the workweek, which
is expected to increase rip current risk to high again, while also
raising the potential for high surf and minor coastal flooding,
especially during the peak of the event Monday into Tuesday across
exposed Atlantic and northwestern coastlines. Beachgoers are
urged to monitor future forecasts as conditions evolve.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

* An elevated flood threat will persist through midweek. Urban and
small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor
landslides in areas of steep terrain are possible, particularly
from late today through Tuesday. Residents and visitors are
urged to avoid small streams, creeks, and other recreational
areas near rivers.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected once again today
across the northern beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra and
the northern USVI. A large, long-period northerly swell and
increasing winds will bring hazardous seas and life-threatening
rip currents across most waters and coastal areas of the islands
from Monday onward. Rough surf and life-threatening rip
currents are expected. Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding
are likely in the most vulnerable coastal areas.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible through at least midweek,
bringing localized lightning and brief gusty winds.

* The USVI, will remain on the dry side of the frontal system
today, but showers are still expected to increase late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Shower activity will increase
significantly between Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

Overnight, mostly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered showers persisted throughout the
night over Caribbean waters, reaching portions of southern Puerto
Rico, particularly from Guanica to Salinas. Doppler radar
estimated rainfall accumulations of up to 0.50 inches over the
coastal areas of Guayanilla, Penuelas, and Ponce. Minimum
temperatures were in the mid-70s across the lower elevations of
Puerto Rico, while the higher mountains observed temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, lows
were slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

A wet and unsettled weather pattern is anticipated across the region
for the next few days. This is influenced by an approaching frontal
boundary to the northwest, associated with an upper-level polar
trough and a mid-to-upper-level ridge to the east of the islands.
This setup is promoting a southerly low-level flow and enhanced
moisture lifting from the Caribbean. Under this deep-layer
instability, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to persist through midweek.

Today, bands of showers from the Caribbean will continue to affect
portions of southern Puerto Rico during the morning, shifting toward
central and northern Puerto Rico by the afternoon. Rain chances will
increase late tonight as the front moves closer, particularly
impacting western and northwestern Puerto Rico. Consequently, there
is an elevated risk of flooding for these areas today and tonight.
Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, showers will primarily affect the
area during the morning hours.

From Monday into Tuesday, winds are expected to shift to the north
as the front crosses the islands. Under this pattern, shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity will shift toward southern,
southeastern, and eastern Puerto Rico, with some activity reaching
the San Juan metropolitan area. The latest precipitable water
analysis (PWAT) continues to show values well above the
climatological normal, reaching approximately 2.25 inches daily.

The flooding risk will remain elevated across most of the region
over the next few days. If the current forecast materializes, there
is potential for significant flooding, particularly in southern and
eastern Puerto Rico. Expected impacts include rapid river rises,
urban and small-stream flooding, potentially life-threatening flash
floods, landslides, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors are
urged to closely monitor weather updates as the week progresses.
&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

The frontal boundary is expected to linger near the local area
through midweek, as a weak area of high pressure rolls from the
western Atlantic and passes just north of the area into the
central Atlantic by the end of the workweek. This will slow and turn
winds more easterly, and keep an overall higher moisture content
over the area, particularly on Wednesday. Also, a short-wave
trough will promote colder than normal 500 mb temperatures around
minus 7/8C, which destabilizes the atmosphere and increase once
again the likelihood of thunderstorms. Therefore, another
unsettled weather day is expected across the islands, and due to
the expected saturated soils, any additional period of excessive
rainfall will lead to quick flooding. Lingering moisture and
small variations on the 500 mb temperatures will promote shower
and isolated thunderstorm development once again on Thursday.
However, a drying trend is now expected on Friday and early
Saturday, before the arrival of the next deep polar trough and
associated frontal boundary during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

Mainly VFR conds are expected across all terminals thru the fcst pd.
Today, SCT -SHRA/+SHRA will continue to affect PR and the USVI, that
may result in brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS at times, in particular at
TJBQ/TJPS aft 01/13Z. Isolated TSRA could increase across TJBQ aft
01/17Z. S-SE winds at 10-14 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations aft 01/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

Moderate southerly winds will prevail today, before a frontal
boundary moves from the Atlantic waters from late tonight through
midweek. In response, winds will turn more northerly and are
expected to increase significantly, from 20 to 25 knots with higher
gusts through at least Tuesday. This front will bring heavy showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the local waters. In addition, a
large, long-period northerly swell will build hazardous seas between
8 and 12 feet across the regional waters during the first part of
the workweek. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across
most, if not all offshore and coastal waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

The lingering northerly swell will continue to promote a high
risk of rip currents through 6 PM this afternoon across all
northern-facing beaches, including areas from Rincon to Fajardo,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.

Beginning Monday, a stronger, long-period northerly to north-
northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive and persist through the
workweek. This swell is expected to bring rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents, while also increasing the potential for
high surf and minor coastal flooding, particularly during the
peak of the event from Monday into Tuesday across exposed Atlantic
and northwestern coastlines. Beachgoers are urged to continue
monitoring future forecasts as conditions evolve.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 448 AM AST Sun Feb 1 2026

An unusually moist and wet period is expected for early February.
Although streamflows have been running around normal to below
normal levels, taking out yesterday's rainfall across the eastern
half of PR, the expected rainfall on Monday and Tuesday could
lead to flooding across main rivers and trigger small land slides
in areas of steep terrain. Please be aware of your surroundings if
you live in flood prone areas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

* An elevated to significant flood threat is in place today, with
an elevated risk continuing through midweek. Periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall may result in urban and small stream
flooding, localized flash flooding, and minor landslides.
Residents and visitors should remain alert and avoid rivers,
creeks, and other flood-prone areas.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will develop starting
today due to the arrival of a strong, long-period north to
northwesterly swell and increasing northerly winds. High Surf
Advisories, a High Rip Current Risk, and Small Craft Advisories
are in effect through late Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal
Flood Watch is in effect. Potential impacts include large
breaking waves, life-threatening rip currents, beach erosion,
and minor coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal areas. Stay out
of the water!

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower frequency will increase
today, with the highest rainfall potential expected tonight into
Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary converged with southerly winds early this morning
to produce significant rainfall over portions of southern Puerto
Rico. Since midnight, the Doppler radar estimated between 3 and 6
inches of rain between Guanica and Ponce. An eastward shift in
rainfall activity is expected across the rest of PR, and into the
USVI throughout the day. Behind the front, from today through late
Tuesday night, a shearline will increase winds between 20 and 25
knots and from the north to northeast. This will cause breezy
conditions across the islands, and in combination with abundant
moisture content will promote an advective weather pattern with
showers increasing in frequency and intensity over the local waters
and across all the islands. The wettest period is still expected
today across PR, and across the USVI from late tonight into Tuesday.
The expected rainfall (1-3 inches and locally higher) will cause
urban and small stream flooding, as well as flash flooding with
possible minor landslides, particularly across the interior and
eastern half of PR.

On Wednesday, winds are expected to return from the east as a
surface high pressure quickly builds from the western Atlantic into
the central Atlantic. These winds will bring back/carry the remnants
of the front over the islands, extending the overall wet period
through the short-term period. Any additional periods of heavy
showers over already saturated soils will lead to flooding, and the
risk for flooding will remain elevated in general.

Another significant threat during the short-term period is the
arrival of a large swell, that will produce dangerous swimming
conditions, life-threatening rip currents, high surf conditions and
possible minor coastal flooding along the west to north beaches of
PR, Culebra, and the northern USVI. Inexperienced surfers and beach
goers are urged to stay on shore, and away from beaches and rock
formations.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering moisture associated with the frontal boundary, light
southeast winds, and 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius
will promote the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms
again on Thursday, with activity more focused across northwestern
Puerto Rico. Slow-moving showers combined with saturated soils
could lead to urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk
ranging from limited to elevated. By Friday, precipitable water
values are expected to decrease significantly, from around 1.8
inches to near 1.2 inches, resulting in lower rain chances. The
remainder of the weekend into early next week will be influenced
by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated
frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and
flood risk once again. Throughout the weekend, low-level winds are
expected to remain very light due to the presence of a col region.
From Sunday night into Monday, winds are forecast to gradually
increase and shift from the north to northeast as a frontal
boundary approaches or passes near the area. Please continue to
monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

Frontal system and associated shearline will continue to produce
widespread -SHRA across the area terminals during the next 24 hours.
Increasing northerly winds expected at TJBQ/TJSJ up to 18 kt with
stronger gusts at times aft 02/13z, while weak and variable winds
prevail across the USVI terminals through late this afternoon. The
strong northerly winds will reach the USVI from this evening onward.
Mtn tops obscd and BKN/OVC cigs expected mainly btw FL025-FL100. Iso
-TSRA cannot be ruled out throughout the fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A frontal boundary is moving across the region through midweek,
causing winds to shift to the north and strengthen to 20 to 25
knots, with higher gusts expected through at least Wednesday. This
front will also bring heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the local waters. In addition, a large, long-period northerly to
northwesterly swell will generate hazardous seas ranging from 10
to 14 feet across regional waters during the early part of the
workweek. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft, with
Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal and offshore
waters through at least late Wednesday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will gradually
spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek.
Seas are expected to build rapidly up to 12 feet, and occasionally
higher from late this afternoon through Tuesday. This swell is
forecast to cause large breaking wave action along the west to
northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra,
and the northern USVI. Swell decay from offshore buoys and model
adjustment due to underestimation of seas, suggest surf heights
between 15 and 20 feet during the peak of the event. A High Surf
Warning and a Coastal Flood Warning could be issued later today if
buoy observations continue to support this significant swell
event.

The next high tides are expected as follows: In San Juan, 1.60 feet
at 9:49 AM AST, and 1.01 feet at 9:16 PM AST; in Mayaguez, 1.41 feet
at 9:19 AM AST, and 0.98 feet at 9:17 PM AST; in Charlotte Amalie,
0.74 feet at 10:12 AM AST, and 0.66 feet at 10:34 AM Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 446 AM AST Mon Feb 2 2026

An unusually moist and wet period for early February. Last night
and during the overnight period, some areas across western to
southern interior of Puerto Rico have seen around 2 to 5 inches,
isolated up to 6 inches of rainfall. Although streamflows have
been running around normal to below normal levels, some rivers
reached action level (below flood level, but elevated). Additional
rainfall today and Tuesday could lead to flooding across main
rivers and trigger small land slides in areas of steep terrain.
Please be aware of your surroundings if you live in flood prone
areas.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
521 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

* Hazardous Marine & Coastal Conditions: A powerful, long-period
north- northwesterly swell will impact the region today. Coastal
Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for north-facing
beaches. Breaking waves will reach dangerous heights between 15
and 20 ft, and a High Risk of Rip Currents persists for most
exposed coastlines.

* Wind Shift: Winds will gradually veer from the north today to
the northeast by Wednesday, and eventually east-southeast by
Thursday. This shift will help pool moisture over the islands
through midweek.

* Near-to-Below Normal Temperatures: A cooler air mass will
linger through Thursday. Coastal areas can expect lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s and highs in the mid-80s. In the mountains,
lows will be in the mid-50s to low 60s, with highs in the
mid-70s.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions were observed overnight across the
Atlantic Coastline. Thus, we upgraded the Coastal Flood and High
Surf Advisories from the northwest to northeast Puerto Rico to
Warnings. Meanwhile, the west PR and the north-facing coasts in
Culebra, St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands remain under the
Advisories. The frontal boundary brought cloudy skies and showery
weather across portions of PR's northern half and the USVI
overnight. Winds were mainly from the north-northwest at 10 to 20
mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Low temperatures were in the
low 60s or even the upper 50s in the mountains of PR, and in the low
70s along the coastal locations in PR and the USVI.

A frontal boundary moving across the Northeast Caribbean will bring
windy conditions and frequent showers to Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands today. Supported by a prefrontal trough and high
moisture levels (TPW between 1.75 and 2.10 inches), atmospheric
instability will increase the potential for heavy rainfall.
Residents can expect northerly winds and periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain, posing a limited-to-elevated risk of flooding.
However, mid- to upper-level cloud cover may act as a limiting
factor by inhibiting some shower development.

Coastal conditions will remain hazardous due to a long-period north-
northwesterly swell. Consequently, Coastal Flood and High Surf
Warnings are in effect for the north-facing coastlines of PR and the
USVI, where the risk of rip currents remains high.

This wet pattern is expected to persist through Wednesday and into
Thursday as the lingering frontal boundary continues to pool
moisture over the region. Winds will shift from the north today to
the northeast by Wednesday, eventually turning east-southeast by
Thursday. While the flooding risk will peak on Tuesday and
Wednesday, it should begin to diminish by Thursday morning as the
moisture moves away from the islands.

Local temperatures across PR and the USVI are expected to remain
near or below normal through at least Thursday. Residents can
anticipate low temperatures along the coast to range from the upper
60s to the low 70s, while in the mountains and valleys, lows may
drop to the mid-50s or low-60s. On the other hand, maximum
temperatures along the coast are forecast to reach the mid-80s,
while in the mountains and valleys they should be in the mid- to
upper 70s.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

During the long-term period, variable conditions are expected. A
high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will promote a
southeasterly flow at the start of the period. By Friday,
precipitable water values are forecast to decrease from around 1.9
inches to near 1.3 inches, resulting in lower rain chances, with
moisture becoming more confined to the lower levels. The remainder
of the weekend into early next week will be influenced by the
arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal
boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the
flood risk once again. At this time, flood risk on Saturday
remains limited to elevated; however, model guidance has been
inconsistent regarding the timing of the next frontal boundary.
Current guidance now indicates the front passing late Friday into
Saturday, increasing moisture values to above normal levels, near
2 inches. Low-level winds are expected to remain very light due to
the presence of a col region. By Saturday night into Sunday,
winds are forecast to slightly increase and shift from the north
to northeast in the wake of the front, if it materializes. Areas
exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will have the highest
rain chances as showers are advected inland with available
moisture. Early next week, there will be less moisture, but rain
chances remain around 30 to 40 % across windward areas, and local
effects induces showers. Temperature wise, guidance suggest
seasonal to above normal temperatures during the forecast period.
Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue across terminals with brief MVFR
possible. Winds will range mainly from the N to NNW between 10 and
20 kt with gusts around 30 kt or even higher. This weather
pattern will persist throughout the day as the frontal boundary
move across the region. BKN/OVC cigs FL020–FL070 expected at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A frontal boundary across the region will continue to linger
through at least mid week, promoting northerly winds at around 20
to 25 knots, with higher gusts expected. In addition, a large,
long-period northerly to northwesterly swell is creating hazardous
seas ranging from 10 to 14 feet across local waters and passages
through around midweek. These conditions will be hazardous to
small craft, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all coastal
and offshore waters through at least late Wednesday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 504 AM AST Tue Feb 3 2026

A large, long-period northwest to northerly swell will continue
spreading across the Atlantic waters and passages through midweek
and beach conditions will remain hazardous. As a result, Coastal
Flood and High Surf Warnings are in effect for the north-facing
coastlines of Puerto Rico and Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
for the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and southwest Puerto Rico. Large
breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected today and also the
High Risk of rip current continues. This will result in life-
threatening conditions, please stay out of the water and continue
to monitor the forecast for updates.