Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

GEFS is seeding western and central canada with cold, should get a boost from the MJO going into 2/3 after sitting in 1 for a while, the big question is delivery mechanism, but at least we are seeing our source region reloading

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAWzuLXXYAAXLqJ?format=png&name=medium

A -epo would get the job done,but without it, the cold will only come so far south. I believe a -epo will only be able to allow winter to extend into March. If not, may need to start thinking about next winter.

I believe a -AO is more important to drive the cold south than a -EPO, especially in February.

[Stratton23]

AO is more important in february, february 2021 was due to a strong AO with a neutral EPO, right now the AO looks like its weak neutral to weak negative, need that to go down, but i definitely think we get another big cold snap before winter is over, my sincere condolences to anyone has planted their garden already

[txtwister78]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAWzuLXXYAAXLqJ?format=png&name=medium

A -epo would get the job done,but without it, the cold will only come so far south. I believe a -epo will only be able to allow winter to extend into March. If not, may need to start thinking about next winter.

I believe a -AO is more important to drive the cold south than a -EPO, especially in February.

If you're looking for more snow into Texas in February as opposed to ice then yes. A -EPO can still help with your cold delivery but the dominant -AO is what we're rooting for if you want one more shot at snow .

[Brent]

Well the Euro isn't as warm as it was here last night. I mean it's still pretty warm but

But like other people said... It's still way too dry. Only one rain chance showing up

[Golfisnoteasy75]

A -epo would get the job done,but without it, the cold will only come so far south. I believe a -epo will only be able to allow winter to extend into March. If not, may need to start thinking about next winter.

I believe a -AO is more important to drive the cold south than a -EPO, especially in February.

If you're looking for more snow into Texas in February as opposed to ice then yes. A -EPO can still help with your cold delivery but the dominant -AO is what we're rooting for if you want one more shot at snow .

What phase or phases of mjo will give us another opportunity, if any of them?

[Stratton23]

I believe 2/3 are more favorable in february

[Golfisnoteasy75]

just my two cents here, i think we are seeing a delay in the pattern, models may have been too quick with trying to flip the pattern, im targeting the 14/15th for changes, thats when ensembles pull back some - EPO back into Alaska, this happened with our last cold air outbreak , models were too quick with - EPO returning, and their was some pushback in the models, but the pattern did happen, I think the same thing here, I acknowledge the risk for pacific air, but i still have to lean more towards a colder outlook because of whats going on in the stratosphere and that ensembles still see the ridge trying to show up again in alaska. Now if we get to my target period and nothings change, then we are most definitely in trouble

We'll have to wait it out and see. The models were trying to show cold air during the period that is coming up to be warm (I never bought into it staying cold early feb), because it was already cold. And now that it is going warm they may try to stay warm. It's just one of those things when patterns transitions, there is a lot of low confidence in guidance. P8 and P1 (nina) in February is warm for us. P2 and 3 of the MJO is cold. The SPV SSW is also a bottom up->then down type event.

Do you think we will get another big cold blast based on mjo, and other things, and if so, what are your current thoughts? Just curious

[Quixotic]

GEFS is seeding western and central canada with cold, should get a boost from the MJO going into 2/3 after sitting in 1 for a while, the big question is delivery mechanism, but at least we are seeing our source region reloading

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAWzuLXXYAAXLqJ?format=png&name=medium

Looks like a canonical Nina SE ridge.

[Quixotic]

I believe a -AO is more important to drive the cold south than a -EPO, especially in February.

If you're looking for more snow into Texas in February as opposed to ice then yes. A -EPO can still help with your cold delivery but the dominant -AO is what we're rooting for if you want one more shot at snow .

What phase or phases of mjo will give us another opportunity, if any of them?

2 & 3 in February. Tropical forcing location impacts the globe. But if you look at JFM, it’s not a deep blue indicating significant correlation with cold but rather a light blue. Best you can get in February.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mperature/

[Golfisnoteasy75]

If you're looking for more snow into Texas in February as opposed to ice then yes. A -EPO can still help with your cold delivery but the dominant -AO is what we're rooting for if you want one more shot at snow .

What phase or phases of mjo will give us another opportunity, if any of them?

2 & 3 in February. Tropical forcing location impacts the globe. But if you look at JFM, it’s not a deep blue indicating significant correlation with cold but rather a light blue. Best you can get in February.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mperature/

It will be interesting to see where the mjo goes. Still hopeful on another opportunity at cold and snow.

[Quixotic]

What phase or phases of mjo will give us another opportunity, if any of them?

2 & 3 in February. Tropical forcing location impacts the globe. But if you look at JFM, it’s not a deep blue indicating significant correlation with cold but rather a light blue. Best you can get in February.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mperature/

It will be interesting to see where the mjo goes. Still hopeful on another opportunity at cold and snow.

I mean, it’s currently projected to pop out of the Circle of Death into Phase 2 in about five days. I’m not sure how long it takes to play out. A lot of it is not only the location but the amplitude. Stronger forcing sends stronger waves. 09-10 the forcing pretty much stayed the same as far as ideal phases but was very strong.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

2 & 3 in February. Tropical forcing location impacts the globe. But if you look at JFM, it’s not a deep blue indicating significant correlation with cold but rather a light blue. Best you can get in February.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mperature/

It will be interesting to see where the mjo goes. Still hopeful on another opportunity at cold and snow.

I mean, it’s currently projected to pop out of the Circle of Death into Phase 2 in about five days. I’m not sure how long it takes to play out. A lot of it is not only the location but the amplitude. Stronger forcing sends stronger waves. 09-10 the forcing pretty much stayed the same as far as ideal phases but was very strong.

From my little knowledge, phase 4-6 is shut the winter forum down and start spring thread phases

[Brent]

The EPS is still pretty bored with only a few members with snow at best but there is one member with 25 inches of snow on Valentine's Day that would be something

Apparently the 0z Euro had a little snow even

Maybe still something to watch up here anyway

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro looks like it's about to kick out a Southern Plains Winter Storm at the end of the run.

[Brent]

00z Euro looks like it's about to kick out a Southern Plains Winter Storm at the end of the run.

I do see temperatures dropping at the end of the TV forecast

Now granted it's still too warm for winter weather but like considering what it looked like well anything is better

I still can't believe the EPS has a 25 inch member haha I don't even think it had that for the big storm 2 weeks ago!

Both the Euro and GFS have accumulating snow here

[txtwister78]

00z Euro looks like it's about to kick out a Southern Plains Winter Storm at the end of the run.

Ensemble doesn't have all that much support. Right now just too many things stacked against us to setup a pattern that delivers big cold in my opinion despite the upcoming warm period we knew was coming.

Waiting to see some signs of us breaking out of that after mid month and they're really not there. AO headed into neutral to positive territory with a strong -PNA (big SE ridge) and a continuation of +EPO. That's pretty much all she wrote if that doesn't flip soon.

[Stratton23]

Will see if the ensembles start this trend, but pretty clear trend on the operational runs of a much more suppressed SE ridge even going into long range, fairly active storm track with a strong- NAO in place, kind of been a trend this winter with models being way too aggressive with blowing up SE ridging, I suspect the ensembles will correct weaker with time

[txtwister78]

Will see if the ensembles start this trend, but pretty clear trend on the operational runs of a much more suppressed SE ridge even going into long range, fairly active storm track with a strong- NAO in place, kind of been a trend this winter with models being way too aggressive with blowing up SE ridging, I suspect the ensembles will correct weaker with time

Really should be the other way around. We should begin to see hints on the ensembles first to give more confidence in what the op is showing at that range.

If it was just about the SE ridge that would be one thing but not having either the AO or EPO in your favor to push cold south as I mentioned above is too much to overcome within our limited time window of opportunity in the south. WPO can only do so much and that will mainly impact regions of the country further north and maybe west for a change with the help of that -PNA.

[rwfromkansas]

Checked back in hoping to see better news. Shoot. Hopefully a better trend starts showing up this weekend. Not giving up yet.

[TomballEd]

We are at the halfway point between the Solstice and the Equinox. The day length and sun angles with the progression of the seasons can be somewhat compared to the sine function and the rate of change of those is maximum at the Equinox. Or the seasons will start working against more cold.

OTOH, I think it snowed about 15 years ago in Central Texas on Easter weekend. So we have that working for us.