WPAC: PENHA - Tropical Storm

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 260202 0000 6.5N 140.3E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 021030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021030Z-030600ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N
140.2E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED AND BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTERMITTENT FLARING CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
CHARACTERIZE THE LLCC AS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY BROAD SURFACE
CIRCULATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MODELS ILLUSTRATE SURFACE INTENSITIES BETWEEN 20-25 KTS IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. GENERALLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

JMA 00Z TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 136E WNW 10 KT.

[cycloneye]

Up to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032340Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALED A BEAN-SHAPED LLC, WITH A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER PINCHING
OFF IN THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER ROTATION. WINDS ARE LIGHT
ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLANKS OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE WINDS EXCEED
25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK, EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU
INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INDICATIVE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATION, THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM COCOONED WITHIN A SMALL POCKET OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP
94W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AGREEING WITH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS AS
WELL. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEANCE THAT 94W WILL GENERALLY TAKE A WESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2026/02/03 13:10 UTC
Analysis at 02/03 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°35′ (9.6°)
E134°30′ (134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 02/04 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°35′ (8.6°)
E131°30′ (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 02/05 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°10′ (8.2°)
E127°30′ (127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 02/06 12 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°05′ (10.1°)
E122°50′ (122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 031400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 135.0E TO 7.6N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY
111 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION BUT
FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT. A PARTIAL 031203Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING ALL
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK, AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (25KTS TO 35KTS)
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NORTHERN
END OF A THE HIGHLY ELONGATED, BEAN-SHAPED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO AGREE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM PALAU IN
PARAGRAPH 2.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dost_pagasa/status/2018704995789730297

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 02W.

02W 260204 0000 8.8N 133.1E WPAC 30 1003

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dost_pagasa/status/2018988338498457910

[Hayabusa]

T2602(Penha)
Issued at 2026/02/04 13:10 UTC
Analysis at 02/04 12 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°05′ (9.1°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area N330 km (180 NM)
S220 km (120 NM)

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (PENHA) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 8.5N 127.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 364 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 02W (PENHA) WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FLARE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LLCC AS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS
HAVE REMAINED LARGELY VOID OF ANY SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, OBSERVED ON
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH ASSOCIATED TRANSVERSE
BANDING EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-29 C, ROBUST
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30
KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
051223Z METOP-C ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 050942Z RCM-1 SAR PASS.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/2019464759016346001

[cycloneye]

JTWC downgrades to TD while JMA hangs on to tropical storm.