SIO: GEZANI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 999 hPa.

Position on February 9 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.8 South / 54.8 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 345 km to the NORTH-NORTHWEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1170 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/2020808418173308968

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 992 hPa.

Position on February 9 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.0 South / 53.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 355 km to the NORTH-NORTHWEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1100 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- Gezani is currently at the stage of a strong tropical storm and continues to intensify as it moves away from the Mascarene Islands on a westward trajectory.

- On its westward trajectory, Gezani is expected to intensify steadily before reaching the east coast of Madagascar. It is forecast to make landfall near Toamasina as an intense tropical cyclone on Tuesday evening or the following night. It is possible to re-enter the channel starting Wednesday, followed by further intensification.

- In the longer term, a landing on the Mozambican coast remains very uncertain.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/2020808418173308968

[sasha_B]

T4.0 from JTWC & it looks like the eye could close off soon - looks like RI is proceeding as forecast.

[cycloneye]

Boom!!

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 985 hPa.

Position on February 9 at 10 p.m. local time: 18.0 South / 52.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 405 km to the NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1010 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.

System information:

- Gezani is currently at the stage of a strong tropical storm and continues to intensify as it moves away from the Mascarene Islands on a westward trajectory.

- On its westward trajectory, Gezani is expected to intensify steadily before reaching the east coast of Madagascar. It is forecast to make landfall near Toamasina as an intense tropical cyclone on Tuesday evening or the following night. It is possible to re-enter the channel starting Wednesday, followed by further intensification.

[sasha_B]

Gezani's eye is beginning to clear out on SWIR imagery & is warming on WV and LWIR as well, though it is still a little ragged. Based on the last MW pass suggesting a tight RMW, and a DT 4.5 (E5.0 minus 0.5 eye adjustment), I'd estimate its current intensity at around 80 kt and 976 hPa as of 2230z. The eye is very small and the estimates from ADT are no longer representative at the moment, IMO.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RoshinRowjee/status/2021009258137972971

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 975 hPa.

Position on February 10 at 04:00 local time: 18.2 South / 52.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 460 km to the NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 940 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Gezani has intensified to the stage of a tropical cyclone and is maintaining its westward trajectory as it moves away from the Mascarene Islands.

- On its westward trajectory, Gezani is expected to continue intensifying before reaching the east coast of Madagascar. It is forecast to make landfall near Toamasina as an intense tropical cyclone on Tuesday evening or the following night. It is possible to re-enter the channel starting Wednesday, followed by further intensification.

[cycloneye]

21S GEZANI 260210 0000 18.2S 52.1E SHEM 90 973

[sasha_B]

Wow. The new microwave frames from 0040z confirm a very tight, very strong core. The upgrade from JTWC was entirely warranted, and puts Gezani 15 kt ahead of its forecast intensity of 75 kt for this point in time....does not bode well for intensity at landfall. We are certainly approaching MH-equivalent status now - the CI 5.0 is based on constraints, and raw DT would justify T5.5 (DG eye surrounded by LG w/ B ring), and surface pressure continues to drop at Toamasina Ambalamanasy Airport (FMMT).

Gezani is just the most recent of several Southern Hemisphere RI cases we've seen over the past 6 weeks - and while Dudzai didn't quite match Errol 2025's performance, it's starting to look like we're in the middle of another serious SH cyclone season.

[Teban54]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Gezani


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 968 hPa.

Position on February 10 at 10 a.m. local time: 18.0 South / 51.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 545 km to the NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 860 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI continues to intensify at the upper end of the tropical cyclone stage. It maintains a westward trajectory and is now located less than 200 km from the coast of Madagascar and the city of Toamasina (Tamatave).

- GEZANI is expected to continue to intensify rapidly until the end of the day and is expected to reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone in the next few hours before hitting the Malagasy coast in the evening near the city of Toamasina.

After weakening over land, the storm is expected to re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday evening, likely as a moderate tropical storm. Further intensification is then forecast, with tropical cyclone status expected around Friday.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2021188018770522160

[cycloneye]

Landfall in 2-3 hours.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/metofficestorms/status/2021200964645159252

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE GEZANI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 260 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 953 hPa.

Position on February 10 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.1 South / 50.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 625 km to the WEST-NORTH-WEST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 790 km to the SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- GEZANI has intensified into an intense tropical cyclone and continues to approach the Malagasy coast. It is located approximately 75 km east of the city of Toamasina (Tamatave), which is expected to be directly struck by the most intense part of the cyclone (eyewall) this Tuesday evening around 4-5 PM UTC (7-8 PM Malagasy time, 8-9 PM Réunion time). This could be one of the most intense direct impacts of the satellite era on the Tamatave area, likely rivaling that of GERALDA (February 1994).

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view.

[cycloneye]

Up to 110 kts.

21S GEZANI 260210 1200 18.1S 50.1E SHEM 110 956