Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

That's some cold air up there in Western Canada on the 00z Euro. Also, the EPS is starting to trend colder for the last week of the month.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026021000/360/850t_anom.na.png

And then, there is the 06z GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021006/378/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Keeps getting pushed back doubt that verifies.

[rwfromkansas]

I bet we aren’t done with cold. Just may cycle around a bit later. Possibly too late for ideal conditions.

What is the MJO doing?

[Stratton23]

MJO goes through 2/3, Eccwf lingers in 3 longer, and the GEFS goes into P4 which is a death sentence for winter, interestingly enough, a lot of the operational guidance today has trended much colder the past week of february , getting enough push from the AO, but a lot of blocking over NA

[Stratton23]

regardless, this has been a pretty forgettable winter overall, hopefully el nino will allow for more “ fun times “ next winter

[WaveBreaking]

regardless, this has been a pretty forgettable winter overall, hopefully el nino will allow for more “ fun times “ next winter

Hopefully it’s not like 2023’s El Niño where it was too strong and the entire country got flooded with mild Pacific air.

[bubba hotep]

regardless, this has been a pretty forgettable winter overall, hopefully el nino will allow for more “ fun times “ next winter

Textbook Nina winter - mostly warm with one big cold blast

[CaptinCrunch]

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

La Niña is present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Niña. There is a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring
2026.*

[Lagreeneyes03]

Uh, can I have my 80s back?

Probably won’t see those again till March. Maybe Friday afternoon you’ll have one last chance.

This is the first post on the Winter thread. LOL, Kind of ironic.

[wxman22]

It's early so take it with a grain of salt. But there are some hints showing up in the models that cold air *may* try to make a return around the end of the month. We will see...

[Golfisnoteasy75]

It's early so take it with a grain of salt. But there are some hints showing up in the models that cold air *may* try to make a return around the end of the month. We will see...

I think a -epo would have to take place for cold air to return imo or a -ao. I still believe we will get one last opportunity, but not sure when.

[Stratton23]

for late february the AO is more important than the EPO, though AI guidance suggests rising heights over Alaska is possible, but more importantly they have enough of a dip in the AO to dislodge some of the cold air down into texas

[Golfisnoteasy75]

for late february the AO is more important than the EPO, though AI guidance suggests rising heights over Alaska is possible, but more importantly they have enough of a dip in the AO to dislodge some of the cold air down into texas

What we usually see is it get colder later in March, which by then its too warm for snow and too cool for svr weather. Hopeful that isn't the case