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Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A discrete cell has recently intensified across
Maverick and Zavala Counties, while other more disorganized storms
continue to develop near/north of a sagging outflow in the San
Antonio vicinity. The undercutting outflow has tended to limit storm
duration and intensity thus far, but the Zavala County cell may have
a somewhat better opportunity to persist as it moves nearly parallel
to the outflow over the next 1-2 hours. Additional isolated cells
may develop later this afternoon across parts of south-central TX,
as relatively strong heating and ascent attendant to an approaching
mid/upper-level shortwave trough continue to erode an initially
substantial capping inversion.
MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are
conditionally supportive of organized convection, and some threat
for severe hail and wind may accompany any persistent cells through
the afternoon. At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain
rather isolated, with the southeastward-moving outflow potentially
limiting the duration of any discrete cells. Uncertainty regarding
the coverage of the threat renders watch issuance unlikely, though
trends will continue to be monitored for development of multiple
longer-lived cells.
..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026
