2026 Severe Weather

[cycloneye]

SPC will have changes to their graphics begginning on March 2.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditio ... formation/

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 https://x.com/cjfieldswx/status/2017279946826055803

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Tornado Warning including Sulphur LA, Starks LA and Edgerly LA until 8:45 PM CST.

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/2022856434623357302

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 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/2023028788792115580

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 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/2023096050177982850

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https://watchers.news/2026/02/16/at-lea ... rmed-ef-1/

At least 9 tornadoes were reported in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi on February 14, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Strong winds, along with twisters and rain, caused widespread damage across the affected areas and localized flash flooding.

Three tornadoes were reported in Vernon, Evangeline, and St. Landry in Louisiana. Meanwhile, five tornadoes were reported in Mississippi’s Lincoln, Lawrence, and Covington counties.

[cycloneye]

The preliminary countdown of tornadoes so far in 2026 is 58. (See graphic at first post of thread)

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 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/2024470001223156143

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through
early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
evening.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/2024485299267465404

[AnnularCane]

Wonder how long it's been since we last had an enhanced.

[cycloneye]

Wonder how long it's been since we last had an enhanced.

Found this from AI.

A significant, late-year enhanced (level 3/5) area of severe weather and tornado risk occurred on December 28, 2025, impacting areas of Central Illinois. This followed a highly active spring and summer, including a rare High Risk outbreak on April 2, 2025, and a major tornado event on May 15–16, 2025.

[AnnularCane]

Interesting. Oddly I don't remember the December 28 event at all. Judging by the storm reports for that date I can believe it though.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/2024630793247629718

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 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/2024636238565634472

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[Xpost][/Xpost]

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 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2024686844710179213

[ElectricStorm]

Wonder how long it's been since we last had an enhanced.

Found this from AI.

A significant, late-year enhanced (level 3/5) area of severe weather and tornado risk occurred on December 28, 2025, impacting areas of Central Illinois. This followed a highly active spring and summer, including a rare High Risk outbreak on April 2, 2025, and a major tornado event on May 15–16, 2025.

Going through the SPC archive looks like 12/28 was only a slight risk and wasn't ever actually upgraded to enhanced, even though it ended up being a pretty impactful day. The most recent enhanced risk day I can find on there is 9/23 so it's been quite some time. Honestly pretty shocked there weren't many significant events in the Oct-Dec period like we've seen in previous years.

Appears to have been some impactful tornadoes today, hopefully damage was minimal.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2024927705326604506

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Tornado damage in Indiana.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2 ... al_twitter