Texas Winter 2025-2026

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Got a chance to visit Italy for the olympics it was a blast. The Dolomites are a thing of beauty worth the trip if you can visit.

I can see my Feb call went down in flames . Naturally it looks to end up top 5 if not top 3 warmest Febs. Go warm you will win!

I was actually analyzing this current pattern last night and was thinking back to what you were saying back in January and I realized that you were actually right about the trends for mid-February. The only problem with your prediction was the pattern didn’t deliver the very cold air to the Southern Plains like you were initially thinking. I ran across the tweet yesterday that expressed surprise that more of the US was not experiencing an Artic outbreak…

 https://x.com/StrmchsrHunterF/status/2025670615202779425



You want to know something that I find absolutely wild meteorologically about this winter?

We have a ridge of high pressure completely dissecting the country in half with very high values from 1030 mb all the way to 1052 mb in Canada, A very strong ridge of High pressure.

And yet, with full high pressure dominating the Central US and Canada, we don't have a massive arctic outbreak of cold air over the entire US, as one would expect this time of year.

What a weird winter this has been.

[Ntxw]

Got a chance to visit Italy for the olympics it was a blast. The Dolomites are a thing of beauty worth the trip if you can visit.

I can see my Feb call went down in flames . Naturally it looks to end up top 5 if not top 3 warmest Febs. Go warm you will win!

I was actually analyzing this current pattern last night and was thinking back to what you were saying back in January and I realized that you were actually right about the trends for mid-February. The only problem with your prediction was the pattern didn’t deliver the very cold air to the Southern Plains like you were initially thinking. I ran across the tweet yesterday that expressed surprise that more of the US was not experiencing an Artic outbreak…


You want to know something that I find absolutely wild meteorologically about this winter?

We have a ridge of high pressure completely dissecting the country in half with very high values from 1030 mb all the way to 1052 mb in Canada, A very strong ridge of High pressure.

And yet, with full high pressure dominating the Central US and Canada, we don't have a massive arctic outbreak of cold air over the entire US, as one would expect this time of year.

What a weird winter this has been.

I'll have to go back and revisit the patterns, but yeah the core of it continued to flow in the northeastern corridor of the US. Blockbuster season (for the 2020s) for many in that part of the country. They were in the single digits and below zero earlier this month I believe. I'll do a reanalysis when season ends soon, suspicion that mid to upper ridge (warmth) continued to persist in the western-central conus.

Providence, RI is seeing an all time event and still snowing there.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
105 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026

...RECORD SNOWSTORM FOR PROVIDENCE RI...

AS OF 1 PM, THE SNOWFALL TOTAL AT RHODE ISLAND T.F. GREENE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 32.8 INCHES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE
GREATEST SINGLE SNOWSTORM ON RECORD, WHICH WAS 28.6 INCHES SET DURING
THE BLIZZARD OF `78, ON FEBRUARY 6-7, 1978.

[Stratton23]

hearing about a potential wind reversal ( ssw) late next week, granted i doubt it would have any real impacts in march down here, but that would be pretty cool to have a late season SSWE, they rarely occur this late in the season

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 maybe it could be more favorable , but i just dont buy it yet personally , ive seen this in the summer time, models/ ensembles show a wet pattern 10+ days out, and we end up getting burned and replaced by a big old ridge lol, if this active signal on ensembles gets within 7 days, then maybe it will become more believable, i think we will have to wait until april/ may before things truely start to get active

Oh don't blame you at all for that thought process in the summer. That's a totally different season though climatology wise for us to be fair and so you expect heat ridges (drier weather) to dominate the pattern at times then during those months.

Fortunately we've got a ways to go before we even get to that. March can get active though at times and naturally whenever you can get all the ensembles to agree on anything at this range it's "something" but more importantly there are other factors in the background driving what the models show at that range as well and so I guess that's why I asked but let's see what happens.

[wxman22]

The Euro is very wet.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 oh no i get that, their definitely is a signal for a wetter pattern , im just hoping we dont get all our wet weather in the spring and summer ends up scoring hot and dry with significant drought issues ( though last summer was good )

[Quixotic]

Jealous of Boston again.

My favorite city in the country…if I could live anywhere, it would be there, but I would miss severe weather.

This storm looks epic.

I was born there. Nice to visit but nah.

Yeah I've been to most of the cities up there from DC to Boston and I just don't think I could ever live up there for a lot of reasons. Heck I went to NYC 5 times in 8 years haha. It actually did snow one time I was there but nothing like this. Seeing reports near 2 feet on Long Island is just wild...

The only thing probably remotely close to this storm was when I went to Kansas City last year or 1993(in March!) in Alabama. Obviously in Alabama it was way more historic and stuff though....like every snow record is from then and it was on March 13th. Crazy stuff

The only thing I really remember being so young was walking to a friends house because they had power. Snow drifts were above my head

I think my snow obsession and the reason I went to Kansas City and Breckenridge last winter was probably born out of that storm

Yeah, the weather is great for winter. Before we left, we had a big hill covered back yard that we turned into essentially a sled ride. You could go round and round and that’s no small deal with seven kids. I love my cousins and when I go visit we have a blast but Boston? A lot of big mouths to shut up. My cousin came down to visit here and he was running his mouth like he was in Boston and I warned him: you aren’t in Massachusetts. People will shoot you down here for affronts. He thought I was kidding but I insisted. If someone cuts you off or talks noise, let it slide. Boston? They’re all looking for a fight. I feel even more strongly about NYC. Insult you for no reason. I just dislike rudeness for rudeness’s sake. You deserve to eat your teeth if you have a mouth asking for it.

[Cpv17]

I was born there. Nice to visit but nah.

Yeah I've been to most of the cities up there from DC to Boston and I just don't think I could ever live up there for a lot of reasons. Heck I went to NYC 5 times in 8 years haha. It actually did snow one time I was there but nothing like this. Seeing reports near 2 feet on Long Island is just wild...

The only thing probably remotely close to this storm was when I went to Kansas City last year or 1993(in March!) in Alabama. Obviously in Alabama it was way more historic and stuff though....like every snow record is from then and it was on March 13th. Crazy stuff

The only thing I really remember being so young was walking to a friends house because they had power. Snow drifts were above my head

I think my snow obsession and the reason I went to Kansas City and Breckenridge last winter was probably born out of that storm

Yeah, the weather is great for winter. Before we left, we had a big hill covered back yard that we turned into essentially a sled ride. You could go round and round and that’s no small deal with seven kids. I love my cousins and when I go visit we have a blast but Boston? A lot of big mouths to shut up. My cousin came down to visit here and he was running his mouth like he was in Boston and I warned him: you aren’t in Massachusetts. People will shoot you down here for affronts. He thought I was kidding but I insisted. If someone cuts you off or talks noise, let it slide. Boston? They’re all looking for a fight. I feel even more strongly about NYC. Insult you for no reason. I just dislike rudeness for rudeness’s sake. You deserve to eat your teeth if you have a mouth asking for it.

Preach!!

[txtwister78]

Here come the 90's Wednesday and Thursday for portions of SC TX points south.

[Brent]

What a way to end meteorological winter than with what will finalize this winter as the warmest on record here

It's never gonna stop being amazing to me we actually had a real snowstorm somehow

At least the Euro is still wet so far in March

Oh and NYC schools are back open after one day! We were closed 4 days for 8 inches

[wxman22]

We may have a big storm on the way.

[wxman22]

The 12z GFS shows a very stormy pattern in the beginning of March with multiple cutoff lows digging to the southwest.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS shows a very stormy pattern in the beginning of March with multiple cutoff lows digging to the southwest.

It only looks good for NTX.

[wxman22]

The Euro is showing a couple of opportunities for severe weather in early March.With multiple cutoff lows.Coincidentally we could be the first in the country to get the new SPC forecast/graphics that start’s in March.

[Stratton23]

Hopefully this wet pattern actually occurs, also wouldn’t be surprised if we end seeing a couple of late season freezes , looking at the stratosphere at all levels on the GFS/ Euro, it does look like we get a PV Split/ SSW to occur on the 1st /2nd of march meaning mid march through- eary april could be chilly, at least for march standards lol

[txtwister78]

The 12z GFS shows a very stormy pattern in the beginning of March with multiple cutoff lows digging to the southwest.

It only looks good for NTX.

False. EPS is showing a strong signal for precip across a good portion of the state as we enter the time period of late next week into the following weekend as well as other ensembles. Very easy to look up to verify.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS shows a very stormy pattern in the beginning of March with multiple cutoff lows digging to the southwest.

It only looks good for NTX.

False. EPS is showing a strong signal for precip across a good portion of the state as we enter the time period of late next week into the following weekend as well as other ensembles. Very easy to look up to verify.

OP was talking about the 12z GFS, which shows very little rain for the southern part of the state, not the EPS. So therefore not false.

[txtwister78]

It only looks good for NTX.

False. EPS is showing a strong signal for precip across a good portion of the state as we enter the time period of late next week into the following weekend as well as other ensembles. Very easy to look up to verify.

OP was talking about the 12z GFS, which shows very little rain for the southern part of the state, not the EPS. So therefore not false.

No I got that. My response was the ensembles are showing increased moisture/precip and therfore I don't know why it wouldn't be in terms of outcome/that run actually verifying and since you specifically mentioned N TX that's why I said what I did in response to the comment you made without any context behind it.

Obviously you're not wrong in pointing out what that particular GFS operational run showed. That's very easy to see without the need for a comment but that's not what I was referring to anyway.

In fact CPC outlook mirrors the ensembles so I guess if one would have looked at all that in comparison you can pretty much rule out specific operational runs at this range anyway? But thanks!

[wxman22]

From Reed Timmer

[Stratton23]

Storm track looks decent with cut off lows moving in from the west, also noticing their is decent agreement in modeling on a new ridge popping off near alaska, now im not sure we get very cold again since we are heading into march, that being said I do think that winter is going to be putting up a fight in march thanks to whats going on in the stratosphere , but winter technically lasts through march so you can never truly say no to another surprise event or so especially with the pattern turning active