Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

[WaveBreaking]

-A sub-900 landfall on the level of the Labor Day Hurricane, or even stronger

Only one year later:

-A sub-900 storm in the open Atlantic

Erin was relatively close but still didn’t get there.

[Beef Stew]

With Melissa becoming the first sub-900 mb landfall in over 90 years in the Atlantic, I think this has checked off something that many of us expected to see within our lifetimes. I'll also go out on a limb and say I think that I personally expect that we'll see another sub-900 landfall in the atlantic within the ~50-60 years.

[Ed_2001]

A lot of good predictions about the Atlantic Already, Here's my two cents about other places in the NHEM. I think these are all probable within my lifetime and I believe >50% of them will eventually happen.

EPAC:
1, Another Patricia in term of intensity, and (related) a high end (155kts +) landfall on Mexico's pacific coast.
2, A solid Cat 4 (120-125kts) landfall on the Baja California Peninsula
3, A 70-75kts hurricane making landfall between San Diego and Long Beach, slightly stronger than 1858
4, A 55-65kts, possibly minimal hurricane making landfall between Long Beach and Santa Barbara, slightly stronger than 1939.

CPAC:
5, Another Iniki-like Cat 4 landfall on Hawaii.
6, A hurricane severely affecting or directly hitting Honolulu, related to the above.

WPAC:
7, An high end (155kts +), sub-900 typhoon on Taiwan or Hainan Island
8, A landfall on the Philippines even stronger than Haiyan or Goni, and probably a few more equal to those.
9, A Cat 5 landfall on Eastern China
10, A STY or Cat 5 on the Pearl River Delta
11, A borderline Cat 4 (110-120kts) hitting Tokyo
12, A landfall between 100 - 115kts on South Korea
13, A Cat 2 landfall on North Korea or Shandong
14, Fully tropical/Cat 1 landfall on Liaoning or Northern Honshu
15, Another freak intense typhoon on Thailand or even Malaysia, see Gay** 1989 and Vamei 2001

NIO:
16, A 150-155kts landfall in the Bay of Bengal.
17, An intense landfall on Sri Lanka, similar to one in 1964
18, First hurricane strength landfall on Iran
19, Before 2020 (cyclone Gati), there were no recorded hurricane strength landfall on the Somalian coast. We’ll likely see it again.

20, There's an https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2777 2015 Paper mentioning an incredibly unlikely chance event of a TC moving into the Persian Gulf and threatening Dubai at an extreme intensity. I do not think this is probable in our lifetime, but the chance is not zero.

**Corrected name

[Sciencerocks]

Another hurricane in the south Atlantic within the next 20 years. By 2045.
A hurricane hitting Israel(65-85 knts)
A hurricane looping back into Maine
A cat5 landfallling on the ga or south Carolina coast. Think Hugo but stronger!
A cape verde hurricane recurving east of 30-35 and making landfall as a hurricane at 20+ north on the African coast.
Another 1938 hurricane should be expected within the coming decades.

A 200 mph hurricane in the Caribbean. Allen was 190 mph? Why not 200? Why not in a world that is warming and adding more and more fuel.

[Ptarmigan]

With Melissa becoming the first sub-900 mb landfall in over 90 years in the Atlantic, I think this has checked off something that many of us expected to see within our lifetimes. I'll also go out on a limb and say I think that I personally expect that we'll see another sub-900 landfall in the atlantic within the ~50-60 years.

I am not surprised this happened. It is invariable something like this would happen. The most intense tropical cyclone to make landfall is Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, which is Southern Hemisphere's most intense tropical cyclone to date. It made landfall on Fiji with central pressure of 884 millibars in February 2016.

The 5 Biggest Cyclones on Earth: When Nature Went Full Power Mode
https://cycloneradar.com/the-5-biggest- ... ower-mode/

[Category5Kaiju]

As we saw with storms like Michael, Dorian, Otis, and Melissa, I, generally speaking, expect to see more storms in the coming years hit specific areas that have never seen such powerful storms in their recorded history. For example, the Texas coast has never recorded a Category 5 landfall....but that doesn't mean it cannot happen. The ABC islands? You have to look back to at least the 19th century to even find records of a hurricane directly striking those islands, that far south in the Atlantic. But what if one day, a major-strength hurricane makes landfall there? And Hawaii? What if a storm much stronger than Iniki occurs, perhaps even a Category 5?

[Category5Kaiju]

You know it's one hell of a storm when it alone rivals both the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Allen. Melissa was truly a landmark hurricane.

With that being said, I'm inclined to think that we're not going to see a storm remotely like Melissa again anytime soon. In the grand scheme of things, ultra-powerful Category 5s like that in the Atlantic are extremely rare.

But then again, in recent years the Atlantic has been experiencing much warmer than usual waters, and it's also important to remember that Milton, a storm that tied Rita in terms of windspeed and pressure, happened just a year before Melissa did. We've never seen back-to-back years with sub-900 hurricanes in recorded history. Then all of a sudden, it actually happened. At least since 2015, we seem to be in the midst of an era that features storms that peak at very high strengths. You have to go back to 2014 for the last time we had a season whose maximum-strength hurricane was a mid-grade Category 4 or lower.

My point here is, at least in our lifetimes, I don't think Melissa will be the last of its kind. I do think that we'll eventually see a storm that reaches 195 mph 1-min sustained winds or even the 200s, or a storm that surpasses 882 mbar.

[Ptarmigan]

A couple more I have:

Northeastern or Central Florida getting a direct hit from a major hurricane. (Dorian came close IIRC)
A major hurricane hitting the Dominican Republic.
A major hurricane hitting New England.
A fully tropical storm hitting Europe.
Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia getting a direct hit from a hurricane.
Hawaii getting hit by a major.
Katrina and Harvey get surpassed as costliest storm.

And just for fun, regarding some of the names of the list:

Another third-gen name getting retired. (E.g., Martin)
Isaac finally gets retired. (For some reason my gut is telling me 2030 will be Isaac's last year)
"M" named storms will get retired as much as "I" named storms since there appears to be an "M" curse as well.
A "V" named storm gets retired.
Another name getting retired after only one use within the next decade. (Milton is the latest example of this)

Nothing surprises me.

Harvey type storm in terms of widespread heavy rain and flooding.
A large major hurricane hitting New York City area.

[CrazyC83]

As we saw with storms like Michael, Dorian, Otis, and Melissa, I, generally speaking, expect to see more storms in the coming years hit specific areas that have never seen such powerful storms in their recorded history. For example, the Texas coast has never recorded a Category 5 landfall....but that doesn't mean it cannot happen. The ABC islands? You have to look back to at least the 19th century to even find records of a hurricane directly striking those islands, that far south in the Atlantic. But what if one day, a major-strength hurricane makes landfall there? And Hawaii? What if a storm much stronger than Iniki occurs, perhaps even a Category 5?

The ultimate nightmare would be a category 4 or 5 making a direct hit on Oahu. That would create a supply and food shortage, and help would be so far away having to be shipped in from the mainland.