Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TomballEd]

No doubt our winters aren’t what they used to be and seem to be accelerating to extreme warmth over even “normal” days. We just don’t get the frequency of cool pacific fronts or true arctic air that we used to.

La Niña, El Niño, La nada… it doesn’t seem to matter.

Long dry periods punctuated by deluges is also a signature of the overall trends.

While the overall climate is generally warming, the warmth this winter is a product of the same pattern producing much below normal temps in the Northeast. BTW, 107F days in August and September, which approach 40 year old records, are no fun. But this is more the pattern. We only got a couple of polar fronts.

We do need some serious rain in STX because a warm dry winter followed by a warm dry and windy spring is the recipe for wildfires.

[rwfromkansas]

I think it's hard to say it's the new normal since La Nina has dominated recently for whatever reason. But, if it continues another 5 years or so, it may be time to say that.

Begone to this awful winter, at least we had some cold and snow/ice up here.

[TomballEd]

If 3/4 of an inch each week continues long enough, fire risk should drop in STX but it'd drop faster if it was rainier.

Seems like a tale of two states in Texas, NC and NE Texas wet, the rest of Texas dry. I've spent enough time around Alice and Corpus Christi to know their climate is dry, so the 'two states' makes some climatological sense but it seems worse to me.

[snownado]

I think it's hard to say it's the new normal since La Nina has dominated recently for whatever reason. But, if it continues another 5 years or so, it may be time to say that.

Begone to this awful winter, at least we had some cold and snow/ice up here.

Wasn't last winter an El Nino?

It was also on the warmer/drier side (albeit not as much as this winter).

[txtwister78]

Currently 93 degrees outside. 92 officially at the airport here in SA with a few more hours left to climb

[wxman22]

I think it's hard to say it's the new normal since La Nina has dominated recently for whatever reason. But, if it continues another 5 years or so, it may be time to say that.

Begone to this awful winter, at least we had some cold and snow/ice up here.

Wasn't last winter an El Nino?

It was also on the warmer/drier side (albeit not as much as this winter).

Last year was a La Niña there’s only been one true El Niño since 2020.

[HockeyTx82]

All I know is that the men's Olympic hockey won Gold in 1980.

We all know how that summer turned out. I hope history doesn't repeat itself.

I mean one of the two things has already......

[Brent]

We did it.. the most highs above 70 in a winter on record here...

Yeah I'm ready for El Nino. There's been way too much La Nina this decade for sure

[Ntxw]

I think it's hard to say it's the new normal since La Nina has dominated recently for whatever reason. But, if it continues another 5 years or so, it may be time to say that.

Begone to this awful winter, at least we had some cold and snow/ice up here.

It's not the cold blasts, they do happen but the base has definitely changed. I'm not just talking about big cold blasts, there's no reason it can't be near to below normal existing every few years, but they don't happen. The base is to be above normal with short cool downs between. And the averages have already been moved upward since 2021 and yet we get above that consistently. I'm not ranting about what's the state of the climate but that we just have not witnessed any near or even below normal (it's winter it should) more often. 2023-2024 was an El Nino winter but was very warm. You'd have go back to 2014-2015 for the last true below normal winter more than a decade ago. Even El Nino hasn't done much since then, the last colder than normal El Nino winter here was 2009-2010.

It's more of a self note that when calling for a cold winter, been wrong basically every time for the past 10+ years.

[Stratton23]

Lots of barney colors showing up on this AI GFS run , call me crazy, but i do think we get another arctic front sometime early in the 2nd week of march , it is march though, but on going strat warm means winter is not going to go away quietly despite many transitioning to the spring thread, i’ll probably help to keep things active on the winter thread until winter is for sure over at the end of march

[wxman22]

Lots of barney colors showing up on this AI GFS run , call me crazy, but i do think we get another arctic front sometime early in the 2nd week of march , it is march though, but on going strat warm means winter is not going to go away quietly despite many transitioning to the spring thread, i’ll probably help to keep things active on the winter thread until winter is for sure over at the end of march

I could be wrong but i think we usually move over to the spring thread regardless of the weather pattern. As it is based on the meteorological seasons. Like if we do end up with another winter event we can still discuss it in the spring thread.

[BTAYLOR5021]

El Niño is great for rain in Texas but winter wise we torch… especially depending on the strength of it… the only couple recent exceptions were 09-10 and 14-15 which brought cooler and more winter precip than normal.

[Stratton23]

wxman22 gotcha, i just figured it would be weird to discuss if another winter event occured, in the spring thread lol

[Cpv17]

El Niño is great for rain in Texas but winter wise we torch… especially depending on the strength of it… the only couple recent exceptions were 09-10 and 14-15 which brought cooler and more winter precip than normal.

Wasn’t the last El Niño dry?

[TomballEd]

I like the look of the Euro ensembles. 0Z GFS ensembles not quite as happy with areas near/S of I-10 corridor an inch or less. But glass half full and hoping EPS is correct.

[Ntxw]

DFW will finish February around 58-59F which is 2nd or 3rd warmest +8F, beating out 2024 and close to 1976. This after January was near normal at +0.1F. For comparison March's monthly average is 58F, so essentially this was a March type Feb.

I'm ready for some rains, PDO is still negative so if you're looking for a very wet and cool type year I don't think we will see that. It will likely be wetter than normal at times, but lingering -PDO influences still very early though. If Fall and Winter 2026-2027 Nino can flip the PDO then next year likely is it.

[TomballEd]

DFW will finish February around 58-59F which is 2nd or 3rd warmest +8F, beating out 2024 and close to 1976. This after January was near normal at +0.1F. For comparison March's monthly average is 58F, so essentially this was a March type Feb.

I'm ready for some rains, PDO is still negative so if you're looking for a very wet and cool type year I don't think we will see that. It will likely be wetter than normal at times, but lingering -PDO influences still very early though. If Fall and Winter 2026-2027 Nino can flip the PDO then next year likely is it.

I had a paper route as a kid in NY (Long Island). That winter was cold enough salt water bays froze and people driving vehicles sometimes got lucky and sometimes didn't driving on the salt water ice. The pattern seems to have repeated. Including people falling through the ice on salt water bays.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw looks like we are getting a wind reversal in the stratosphere, any chance we get any more chilly air ( at least for march standards ) in march, GFS looks great but even ensembles are starting to show some of that cold air spilling southward

[txtwister78]

12z Euro pretty bullish next week with beneficial rainfall further south into Texas as expected. EPS continues to trend in the right direction

ICON has a similar look as well. The threat for severe weather will likely increase.

[TomballEd]

12z Euro pretty bullish next week with beneficial rainfall further south into Texas as expected. EPS continues to trend in the right direction

ICON has a similar look as well. The threat for severe weather will likely increase.

Euro family has been more bullish on rain the next 2 weeks than the GFS family and has been so for a few days. Cheering for Team Euro on this one, I remember the fires around Austin and Bastrop in 2011, and Austin is a lot more developed than it was 15 years ago, a lot of apartments have been built out into the hills and new homes are going up surrounded by fields down towards Buda. Similar fires to 2011 would have greater impact.