Texas Winter 2025-2026

[DallasAg]

12z Euro pretty bullish next week with beneficial rainfall further south into Texas as expected. EPS continues to trend in the right direction

ICON has a similar look as well. The threat for severe weather will likely increase.

Euro family has been more bullish on rain the next 2 weeks than the GFS family and has been so for a few days. Cheering for Team Euro on this one, I remember the fires around Austin and Bastrop in 2011, and Austin is a lot more developed than it was 15 years ago, a lot of apartments have been built out into the hills and new homes are going up surrounded by fields down towards Buda. Similar fires to 2011 would have greater impact.

Today's CPC now has most of the NE 1/3 of Texas in a High Risk for heavy precip Mar 7-10. And basically everything east of the panhandle and RGV in at least a slight risk. Gotta like that look as long as it produces!

[Ntxw]

Ntxw looks like we are getting a wind reversal in the stratosphere, any chance we get any more chilly air ( at least for march standards ) in march, GFS looks great but even ensembles are starting to show some of that cold air spilling southward

2nd week of March perhaps, with the rising averages if cold shot does happen we'd be looking like 30s for lows.

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like the SPC has us under a 15% risk for day 6.....

[txtwister78]

12z Euro pretty bullish next week with beneficial rainfall further south into Texas as expected. EPS continues to trend in the right direction

ICON has a similar look as well. The threat for severe weather will likely increase.

Euro family has been more bullish on rain the next 2 weeks than the GFS family and has been so for a few days. Cheering for Team Euro on this one, I remember the fires around Austin and Bastrop in 2011, and Austin is a lot more developed than it was 15 years ago, a lot of apartments have been built out into the hills and new homes are going up surrounded by fields down towards Buda. Similar fires to 2011 would have greater impact.

Oh most definitely cheering for team Euro and I think it has merit given the time of year and the fact that these boundaries will push further south setting up a more active/wider storm coverage area deeper into the state.

That may actually save much of N TX from a prolonged severe weather threat (maybe not initially) but perhaps in the extended beyond mid week as central and SC TX into portions of SE TX remain in a warmer airmass with cooler air just to the north.

[txtwister78]

I think "winter" as we know it by the way is over for Texas with a small exception of the Panhandle where it's not unusual to see some winter events up there in March but nothing unusual or earth shattering showing up that would suggest anything other than some seasonal cool shots of air followed by quick warm up's. In other words what one would expect for March as a transition month to real Spring.

[Stratton23]

I have to respectfully disagree with that, while i agree that the threat for any winter weather is likely over for the deep south, I still think we get some chilly weather as we get into mid march as ensembles show a rather impressive cold pool of cold air building in central canada in early march and some ensembles dislodge some of that in texas, it is march so its modified, but i definitely think we get a couple of late season freezes and some highs in the 50’s before we are done, by april winter is definitely over and the real big suck warmth unfortunately comes to stay

[txtwister78]

I have to respectfully disagree with that, while i agree that the threat for any winter weather is likely over for the deep south, I still think we get some chilly weather as we get into mid march as ensembles show a rather impressive cold pool of cold air building in central canada in early march and some ensembles dislodge some of that in texas, it is march so its modified, but i definitely think we get a couple of late season freezes and some highs in the 50’s before we are done, by april winter is definitely over and the real big suck warmth unfortunately comes to stay

Oh by all means disagree my friend but my friendly counter to that is based on what? Definitely not unusual for ensembles to show cold much further north across regions of the country that climatology wise are still prone to it but the GEFS is really the only one that has been advertising some real cold building up there?

Again I don't deny that there won't be some cooler shots of modified air as mentioned above with the amount of troughing showing up in the west and yes eventually that will push east and south with time most likely ending our severe weather threat around mid month or so as a result but not sure about highs in the 50's this far south into Texas. That's a stretch in my opinion.

Perhaps a few places up north into North or West Central Texas aren't done with a late season freeze but there is not much out there other than some folks going "oh look another stratospheric warming event". That in and of itself of course doesn't necessarily translate to cold for Texas as we've seen before and so I'd plan on the warmth winning down here but bring on the rain!!!

[Brent]

Im sorry but i look at this alleged cooler air in March as too little too late at this point. Where was this in December or February?

The only thing saving this winter from an F- here is the one weekend in January it snowed. Kind of insane

I just hope it rains for real at this point. Like I said in the spring thread I feel like we've already been down this road once in February and it didn't even rain enough to matter here after all the nonsense

I say alleged because I don't even have a low in the 30s showing up even here. Time is ticking

Oh and the record high we broke here is from the same year we hit 102 in April

[Stratton23]

Man that GFS run is something else, fwiw the euro looks pretty cold as well lol

[wxman22]

We may be stuck in the 40's all day Monday up here, due to the frontal boundary. I love the cold air damming effect you get here in NW Texas. You can also see the Ouachita affect, with the front having a hard time crossing the mountains.

[txtwister78]

Euro op continues the bullish signal for beneficial rainfall along with EPS beginning next week. Promising trends

No real cold showing up from either in the long range however and that fantasy run of the 0z GFS lived up to that phrase on its 12z run. Lol. No big surprise.

[Stratton23]

The euro now supports the GFS in the idea of a chilly spring break down here, most ensemble guidance is trending that way as pieces of a large cold pool in central canada break off and head down here, should get a nice break from this god awful warmth

[TomballEd]

Euro op continues the bullish signal for beneficial rainfall along with EPS beginning next week. Promising trends

No real cold showing up from either in the long range however and that fantasy run of the 0z GFS lived up to that phrase on its 12z run. Lol. No big surprise.

I like that the GFS ensembles are trending towards the Euro.

[txtwister78]

Euro op continues the bullish signal for beneficial rainfall along with EPS beginning next week. Promising trends

No real cold showing up from either in the long range however and that fantasy run of the 0z GFS lived up to that phrase on its 12z run. Lol. No big surprise.

I like that the GFS ensembles are trending towards the Euro.

Agreed. Coming together nicely

[snownado]

Will have to wait on the official numbers for confirmation, but it appears DFW will tie for the 3rd warmest winter on record with an average temp of 52.9*F.

EDiT: It's actually funny looking back. Summer was the "cool" season in 2025, as the Spring / Fall / Winter were all top 10 warmest...

[Brent]

Good riddance to probably the warmest winter on record here. I don't know what was more shocking the fact it was 86 at Christmas the fact it actually snowed for real one time in a sea of above normal temperatures otherwise or the fact February absolutely nothing has happened. It's just been one thing after another. I mean even the one snowstorm wasn't what the models and people expected honestly

[snownado]

DFW will also end up 0.02" shy of making the top 10 driest winter list.

And all but 0.08" of that came in a whopping 2 events.

[Ntxw]

February made December look like an icebox. Outside of one event for a week, what an atrocious winter if you like cold. It was the winter of 80s.

Falcon Dam also recorded the warmest winter temperature ever in the US for a winter month of 106F on Feb 26.

[Brent]

Warmest winter in Dodge City since 1875!!!

Tulsa records don't even officially go back that far... It's the dust bowl for us(which also has the all time record highs still)

[snownado]

On another funny note, I just checked the foecast yesterday and it was calling for temps in the 60s for a few days after today.

Now I see 80s...