2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

[CrazyC83]

That 913.5 mb reading was likely well inside the RMW based on timing (although I think landfall was actually at 1740Z and not 1725Z), and the gradients seem reasonable. That would support a landfall pressure around 904 mb. I would have this as an hourly estimate:

12Z - 890 mb, based on satellite peak, T8.0+ readings and later pressure data
13Z - 892 mb, based on AF plane
14Z - 894 mb, based on NOAA plane
15Z - 896 mb, based on extrapolation of trends
16Z - 899 mb, based on extrapolation of trends
17Z - 902 mb, based on weakening trend and Josh's data, adjusted for Schloemer equation
1745Z - 904 mb, landfall based on a combination of those pressure data readings and radar
18Z - 910 mb, based on post-landfall filling in mountainous terrain
19Z - 924 mb, based on decay rates
20Z - 937 mb, based on decay rates
21Z - 950 mb, based on decay rates slowing as it was emerging over water (it emerged around 2115Z)
22Z - 954 mb, based on AF plane after departing Jamaica

[Category5Kaiju]

Looking back at what has happened and what has been discussed, I've honestly gotten even more impressed, in a way, by Labor Day 1935. A pressure of 892 mbar (with some theories abound suggesting a possible lower core pressure) at landfall and at peak strength takes a LOT of delicate factors to combine at the right place and at the right time. I do think that its purported compact size, explosive deepening, and landfall over a very low-lying, moist, thin, and flat terrain really helped out with allowing such a one-of-a-kind event.

With Melissa, I think that the Jamaican mountains helped at least a tiny bit in weakening the system before landfall. Still, it's mind-blowing to think that the strongest direct landfall that Jamaica sustained pre-Melissa was a high-end Category 3, and then one day, suddenly, they were staring down the barrel of a 185 mph landfall.

[TheWisestofAll]

I would have assumed a lower pressure - about 890 mb - at 12Z, based on satellite and Recon trends. Additionally, I'd have gone with 170 kt for the peak intensity given the challenges from the aircraft and the satellite trends.

This seems to be forgotten, but the storm was actively deepening while the AF recon was in the eye. They dropped several sondes while stuck there but only the last one was transmitted to public services. This is where the NHC got the 896 from in the first update with recon.

[ljmac75]

Now that they are all done here are the stats for the TCRs of 2025:

Shortest Report: Andrea (9 pages)
Longest Report: Melissa (87 pages)

Most Figures: Melissa (43)
Least Figures: Many of them (4)

Longest time between storm dissipation and report release: Chantal (211 days)
Shortest time between storm dissipation and report release: Alvin (20 days)

Storms that had their peak winds increased: Dexter, Melissa, Octave, Priscilla, Iona, Keli
Storms that had their peak winds decreased: Imelda, Erick

If there's other stats people want I got a spreadsheet full of them.