Texas Spring 2026

[cycloneye]

Welcome to Spring. The meteorological Spring season has begun as of 00:00 UTC on 3/1/26.

[Brent]

It's definitely been awhile since I've seen so many days with rain chances

I'm still in believe it when I see it for the most part especially with the idea of flooding or severe weather

[wxman22]

Hello Spring! Storm season is here.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave
trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass
resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains.
Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to
northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate
instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development
appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid
afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support
a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind
gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid
Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves
through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should
remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale
ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen
the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most
likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be
in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central
U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern
states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great
Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow.
Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability
will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that
scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be
supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting
northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be
associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting
scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist
sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be
maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas
northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few
tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast
to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances
quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower
Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of
the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the
spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this
area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

[TomballEd]

SPC must be going by Euro alone for Wednesday and the Euro/CMC for Friday because the GFS isn't seeing a severe weather outbreak in the next week. SPC are the experts. They must have a reason

I am hoping Euro is correct, it is wetter. Mid level winds on both models are pretty 'meh' so I wouldn't think a high end severe threat that far south with very large hail or strong tornadoes is likely.

[Iceresistance]

Brent needs to look at this, a bit unexpected as a hail-driven risk


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bv13E.png

[rwfromkansas]

Awful winter overall, so bring on spring. Hoping for some rain, just not when they build our deck for the swim spa.

[ElectricStorm]

Well that was anticlimactic...

Down to just a general T-storm area for remainder of the night now and not seeing much on radar

[Iceresistance]

Well that was anticlimactic...

Down to just a general T-storm area for remainder of the night now and not seeing much on radar

Stupid cold front surging much faster than expected and undercutting the storm development