Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

* A deteriorating weather pattern is expected from today into
Sunday with the arrival of a frontal boundary. For today, there
is a limited to elevated flood threat across the interior
sections of Puerto Rico. Residents can experience minor
flooding across urban an low-lying areas, as well a few
flooding along small streams with the heaviest activity.

* The northerly winds for today into Sunday morning will enhance
slightly colder temperatures across the islands tonight.

* There is a low to moderate risk of rip currents across all
exposed beaches on the islands today.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower activity is anticipated
and forecast from Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

A stable weather pattern persisted in the early morning hours
across the islands, with mostly clear skies. A line of light to
moderate showers was noted by the Doppler Radar over the Caribbean
water moving slowly across the Caribbean waters. Winds were light
and variable. Overnight temperatures ranged from the mid 70s
across the urban and coastal areas to the low to mid 60s in the
mountains.

A slow deterioration in the weather pattern is forecast from
today (Valentine’s Day) into Sunday as a cold front and its
associated pre-frontal trough approach the region. At the surface,
the induced trough will move southward, weakening the pressure
gradient and promoting light and variable winds during the morning
hours, followed by a more northerly wind flow as the trough
continues to shift south. Under this evolving pattern, low-level
moisture with precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and
1.7 inches, based on satellite-derived imagery data, will spread
across the islands. Aloft, divergence at the mid to upper levels
combined with colder mid-level temperatures between -8 and -9
degrees Celsius will enhance instability and favor vertical
development. Therefore, the forecast calls for variable morning
hours with moderate to heavy showers along the interior section
this afternoon. Rainfall accumulations for today can be a thing
due to the slow movement of the showers and the light winds. Given
the expected conditions, there is a limited to elevated flood
threat along the Cordillera Central. The main hazard will be
mostly the minor flooding in urban areas, with the heaviest shower
activity, and some flooding possible across urban areas and small
streams. However, some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, with the heaviest activity. Tonight, conditions are not
expected to improve, as moisture and cloudiness associated with
the frontal boundary continue to reach the islands. Similar to
past weeks with the arrival of frontal bands, residents across the
islands can expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies for much of
the time, along with light showers across northern sections of
Puerto Rico. A northerly wind flow prevailing for most of the day
will promote cooler daytime high temperatures, favoring even
cooler overnight temperatures that will fall below seasonal
normals. On Sunday, the northerly wind flow will persist, and
conditions associated with the lingering moisture and cloudiness
from the frontal boundary will continue, making Sunday the
cloudiest day of the period.

Weather conditions will begin to change late Sunday afternoon
into Monday as a building surface high-pressure system across the
Central Atlantic results in winds veering more from the north-
northeast and eventually from the east. This pattern will push
shower activity toward eastern sections by Sunday night. On
Monday, the wind flow will turn more from the east-southeast as
the surface high interacts with another frontal boundary just west
of the Atlantic; this shift will mainly result in a decrease in
moisture across the region, allowing a slightly drier air mass to
filter in along with somewhat warmer temperatures, especially
across areas that experience good periods of sunshine during the
day.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

The long-term period will be dominated by generally calm weather
conditions, with only a few passing showers at times and no
indications of an elevated or significant flooding risk. By late
Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge will establish across the
forecast area, while a surface high pressure system builds in,
promoting more stable conditions. PWAT values are now ranging
between the 50th and 25th percentiles, or near to below normal for
this time of year, with values decreasing from around 1.40 inches to
near 1.00 inch. As a result, shower coverage is expected to remain
limited, with trade-wind moisture favoring brief passing morning
showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by isolated afternoon convective development over interior
and western Puerto Rico as mostly easterly winds prevail. These
conditions are expected to prevail through Friday.

Overall, the flooding threat should remain low through the end of
the period as stable conditions continue to dominate. Nevertheless,
the public is encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast for any
changes.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all the TAF sites during the
period. Winds will remain light and VRB until 14/14Z, then become
from the N at 10 knots or less. At 14/17Z, an increase in SHRA is
forecast across the Cordillera Central, resulting in lower
ceilings and affecting the FL020 to FL040. The SHRA will affect
mostly TJPS at 14/19Z to 14/22Z. VCTS cannot be ruled out during
that period along TJPS. VCHS to SHRA are expected from 14/18Z to
14/23Z across TJBQ & TJSJ, mostly lowering ceilings. OVC skies
are expected from 15/00Z to 15/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

A surface high-pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic,
interacting with an approaching cold front across the western
Atlantic will lead to light to gentle southeast to east-southeast
winds through Saturday afternoon. Then, the cold front will bring
back moderate northeast to east-northeast winds from Saturday
evening into early Monday morning, along with increasing cloud cover
and rain chances. Additionally, a pulse of long-period northerly
swell will arrive around Sunday evening and continue into Monday,
increasing wave heights to around 5 to 7 feet. Small craft operators
will likely need to exercise caution, particularly across the
Atlantic waters and Mona passage.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026

There is a low to moderate risk of rip current along all the
coastal exposed beaches today. For the northern sections,
including Culebra the risk will remain moderate. The rest of the
areas of the main islands Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S.
Virgin Islands will enjoy a low risk of rip current. From Sunday
evening, there will be additional pulses of long-period northerly
swell reaching the Atlantic coast. This energy will increase the
risk to high once again. Residents and visitors are urge to stay
tune for further updates of possible statements.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
225 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

* Frequent showers will persist today, with an elevated risk of
urban and small stream flooding along the interior and northern
Puerto Rico. Avoid visiting rivers and driving along flooded
roadways.

* Showers will also move across the Virgin Islands. Ponding of
water on roadways and low-lying areas is anticipated in some areas.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate again later
today, with conditions hazardous for small boats along the
Atlantic waters, and for swimmers along northern Puerto Rico,
Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John. &&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The night hours were active along a great portion of Puerto Rico,
with widespread showers and even isolated thunderstorms along the
west interior, and northwest. Showers were less frequent in the
Virgin Islands, but still, some interruptions of rain were observed.
Flood advisories were needed for portions of the San Juan metro area
and northwestern Puerto Rico , since heavy showers were reported.
Additionally, water surges were reported by the USGS river sensors
across many sites in Puerto Rico.

All this rain that is moving over the islands is associated with a
frontal boundary stationary north of Puerto Rico. In fact, a swath of
above normal moisture is evident in the satellite-derived
precipitable water product. Behind the front, high pressure will
roll eastward north of the islands, with winds coming out of the
northeast on Sunday, east on Monday, and southeast on Tuesday. the
surface winds will continue to push moisture from the north today,
so showers will be scattered to numerous along the local islands. In
the morning, the heaviest activity is expected to reach the northern
half of Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. In the afternoon, these
showers will also begin to affect the south. Additional areas of
ponding of water, water surges along rivers can be anticipated.
Also, some areas, especially along the interior and northern Puerto
Rico may experience urban and small stream flooding.

Conditions look drier by Monday and Tuesday, with drier air
gradually filtering in at the mid levels. The dew point depression
at the lower levels is expected to be big enough to suppress
organized shower activity. Short-lived activity cannot be ruled out
along the east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (10-20%
probability of precipitation), with some additional showers in the
west each afternoon. In general, fair weather is anticipated to
begin the workweek. Temperatures will warm up too, with 925 mb
temperatures about one standard deviation above normal.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

The long-term period will begin with a passing upper-level short-
wave trough and associated zonal jet support moving across the
region. This feature will briefly promote slightly cooler-than-
normal mid-level temperatures and modest instability early in the
period. However, moisture will remain shallow and largely confined
below 700 mb, with persistent dry air aloft limiting vertical
development. By late week, deep-layer high pressure will build,
gradually stabilizing conditions. As this high strengthens and
shifts eastward through the weekend into early next week, the local
pressure gradient will tighten before relaxing, resulting in
strengthening easterly winds that later veer to the southeast and
weaken. Mid-level temperatures will warm back to near normal by late
week and trend slightly above normal at times early next week, while
low-level temperatures respond to the developing southeasterly flow
with a gradual warming trend.

In terms of hazards and sensible weather, shower activity will
remain limited throughout the period due to shallow moisture and a
persistent trade wind inversion. Expect mainly brief overnight and
morning trade-wind showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convection over
interior and western Puerto Rico. Flooding concerns are expected to
remain low given limited moisture depth and dry mid-level
conditions. The primary hazard focus will shift to wind-related
impacts late in the week and over the weekend, as fresh to locally
strong easterly winds promote breezy periods across coastal and
elevated areas. Early next week, winds will veer to the southeast
and gradually weaken, while above-normal temperatures become more
likely under continued generally stable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue to move at times through most
of the forecast period. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are
anticipated, along most of the terminals, but especially along
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. Mountain obscuration is also expected across the
Cordillera Central from 15-22Z. Winds will come from the ENE at 11-
13 kts, with stronger gusts, especially along TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

A cold front moving across the northeast Caribbean will promote
moderate to locally fresh northeast to east-northeast winds through
at least Monday. This front will result in increasing cloud cover
and rain chances as well as isolated thunderstorms. A long-period
northerly swell will arrive around this afternoon, through early
Monday morning, building seas between 5 and 7 feet across the
offshore Atlantic waters, and possibly across the Mona Passage.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 222 AM AST Sun Feb 15 2026

We advise all beachgoers to exercise caution, particularly along the
north-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo and throughout
eastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix. The risk of rip currents is moderate in
these areas during the morning and early afternoon. The risk will
be high later this evening into early Monday morning as a long-
period northerly swell moves in, meaning that life-threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone. On President's Day, the
risk of life- threatening rip currents will remain moderate along
the north-facing beaches

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
331 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Passing showers will move through in the morning, followed by a
few afternoon showers over interior and northwestern Puerto Rico
as remnants of the frontal boundary linger. Limited flooding is
expected, with brief ponding of water in roads and poorly-
drained areas.

* Winds shift more from the southeast today and become lighter on
Tuesday, allowing warmer-than-normal temperatures.

* Seas and beach conditions will worsen from midweek into the end of
the week as a new northerly swell arrives, creating hazardous
conditions for small craft and a high risk of rip currents along
north-facing beaches of the islands.

* In the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing showers will continue
mainly at night and in the morning, with rougher surf and
dangerous rip currents expected late in the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Remnants of a frontal boundary remains stalled north of the
region this morning with lingering moisture trapped in the low
levels across the local islands. Early morning satellite and radar
imagery show passing trade wind showers affecting windward Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall has been light
overall, although brief moderate showers will remain possible
through the morning hours.

As the day progresses, the local wind flow will gradually shift more
from the southeast, allowing slightly warmer air to filter in.
Daytime heating and local effects will once again promote isolated
to scattered showers across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico
this afternoon. Available moisture remains limited and mid-levels
are somewhat dry, so activity should be brief. The flood threat
remains limited, with only isolated ponding in poor drainage areas.

Tonight into Tuesday, a nearby col will move north, weakening the
pressure gradient and leading to lighter steering winds.
Consequently, 925 mb wind speeds diminish, and showers will move
more slowly and become more locally driven. Overnight and morning
showers will still affect eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, while afternoon convection may linger longer across
interior and western Puerto Rico. However, precipitable water
remains near to slightly below normal, and mid-level dryness should
prevent widespread rainfall.

By Wednesday, the col shifts eastward, and Atlantic high pressure
strengthens again, allowing easterly winds to increase once more.
The low-level flow will keep an east-southeast component,
maintaining warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures, especially
across urban and coastal areas. Shower activity returns to a more
typical fast-moving trade wind pattern, with nighttime and morning
showers across windward areas, followed by isolated afternoon
shallow convective activity over interior and western Puerto Rico.

Overall, the pattern will turn more seasonal through midweek:
overnight trade wind showers, localized afternoon convection,
lighter winds Tuesday due to the col, and increasing winds with
warmer conditions by Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast, as
mostly stable conditions are very likely by the latter part of the
week and early next week. A surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic will promote easterly winds through most of the period,
expected to intensify and migrate eastward, strengthening from the
southeast. Based on the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF,
PWAT values should remain seasonal to below climatological normal
(between 1.2 and 1.4 inches, low chance of 1.5 to 1.6 inches) due to
drier air filtering into the region. Confidence is increasing
between model solutions, as ensemble members show low variability
and are tending to lower moisture content across the CWA. In terms
of instability, the upper-level shortwave should gradually move away
from the region, with a mid-level ridge establishing over the
Bahamas and lingering through most of the period. Based on the
latest model guidance, the mid-level ridge will dominate most of the
weather conditions throughout the period, with slightly warmer-than-
normal 500 mb temperatures (between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius),
leading to a blocking pattern and resulting in stability aloft. A
seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail, with isolated to
scattered showers moving over windward sections across the islands
during the night into the morning hours. Although the combination of
diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence could
trigger afternoon convection, this should remain shallow, with
mainly puddles over the road and locally reduced visibility.
Additionally, strengthening winds should result in fast-moving
showers, lowering the chance of flooding. Hence, no flooding nor
lightning is expected during the long-term forecast.

With a southeasterly wind flow and the presence of a mid-level
ridge, model guidance continues to suggest warmer-than-normal
temperatures. Although there’s a low chance of heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the
low 90s in localized urban and coastal areas across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at most terminals. However,
passing SHRA embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to affect
mainly TJSJ, TIST and TISX through the morning hours. Aft 16/17Z,
SHRA and isolated VCSH will develop over interior and NW PR,
possibly causing brief operational impacts at TJBQ. Winds will
remain generally ESE at 5–13 with higher gusts, then returning blo
10 kt aft 23z. The 16/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds up to 17
kt blo FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

A surface high pressure is moving from the Western Atlantic toward
the Central Atlantic, which will result in moderate to locally fresh
east to east-southeast winds today. A fading northerly swell will
continue to create hazardous conditions for small craft operators in
the Atlantic offshore waters through at least noon. Winds will turn
gentle to moderate and from the southeast as another frontal
boundary, along with a pre-frontal trough, moves north of the region
by Tuesday. Additionally, another long-period north to northeasterly
swell will affect local marine conditions from Thursday onward,
creating hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 326 AM AST Mon Feb 16 2026

Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution, particularly along
the north-facing beaches from Rincon to Fajardo and throughout
eastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix, due to the moderate risk of rip currents. The
moderate risk for these beaches will continue through at least late
Tuesday night, when the risk is forecast to become low throughout
the region on Wednesday. However, the arrival of a long-period
northerly to northeasterly swell during the second part of the week
will once again increase the risk to high levels for most of these
locations.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
448 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

* Light southeasterly winds expected today, promoting warmer-than-
normal temperatures across the islands.

* Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
interior and western Puerto Rico. Light winds will allow slow
moving showers, increasing the potential for localized limited to
locally elevated flooding threat.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate by Thursday with
the arrival of another northerly swell. There is a possibility of
new Small Craft Advisories, High Rip Current Risk statements, and
potentially High Surf Advisories.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, brief passing showers will
continue mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours,
along with worsening marine and beach conditions late in the
week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fairly tranquil conditions prevailed overnight, with only a few
showers developing over the surrounding waters. This pattern will
persist through the morning hours, with early activity remaining
brief and mainly affecting localized windward coastal areas of
Puerto Rico and the smaller islands.

Today, the region remains under the influence of a surface col north
of the forecast area, situated ahead of an approaching pre-frontal
trough. Additionally, cooler 500 mb temperatures and a 60-70 kt
upper-level jet over the northeastern Caribbean will enhance upper-
level divergence and provide additional instability. Low-level winds
will remain light and temperatures warmer than normal, allowing sea
breeze convergence and local effects to dominate. With near-seasonal
moisture in place, diurnal heating will promote scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon, mainly across
interior and western Puerto Rico.

Due to weak steering flow, slow-moving showers may produce locally
enhanced rainfall accumulations. Therefore, a limited but localized
elevated flooding threat is expected across interior and western
Puerto Rico.

Tonight into Wednesday, morning showers will again favor windward
areas followed by afternoon convection across interior and western
Puerto Rico. The upper-level jet will gradually shift eastward and
begin exiting the northeastern Caribbean by late Wednesday. Although
isolated thunderstorms remain possible, activity should become
somewhat more localized late in the day.

By Thursday, mid-level ridging builds over the region behind the
departing jet while precipitable water values fall below normal. The
resulting drier and more stable air mass will promote mostly fair
weather conditions, limiting convection to isolated afternoon
showers over western Puerto Rico and brief trade-wind showers across
eastern areas.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mostly stable conditions on the upcoming weekend and early next
week, with slight uncertainty by the end of the forecast period. The
wind pattern transition is expected on Sunday, from the east to the
southeast, as the surface high pressure migrates from the western
Atlantic into the Central Atlantic. Drier air masses will filter
into the region for most of the period, with occasional patches of
moisture that will increase shower activity. There’s a medium chance
of seasonal to below normal PWAT values (1.0 - 1.2 inches, up to 1.4
inches with the arrival of the patches), based on the probabilistic
guidance of the GFS and ECMWF. Additionally, ensemble members
continue to show low variability (approximately 0.2 inches),
increasing confidence. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a
mid-level ridge is expected to move over the Bahamas and linger
during the weekend, with warmer-than-normal mid-level temperatures
(500 mb temperatures up to 4 degrees Celsius), sinking air, and
stability aloft. Under a blocking pattern, shower activity should
remain limited and shallow. Hence, the most likely scenario is
shower activity over the waters moving into windward sections during
the night into the morning hours, with afternoon convection over
interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico, including streamers
from the U.S. Virgin Islands. Due strengthening winds, showers
should move quickly, with a low chance of significant rainfall
accumulations. Hence, the flood and lightning threat should remain
low. There’s a model discrepancy regarding Tuesday's weather
conditions, as both GFS and ECMWF suggest a deep-layered trough that
may deepen into the tropics and introduce instability. Nevertheless,
there’s variability in terms of moisture content (PWAT difference up
to 0.4 - 0.5 inches). Hence, uncertainty remains high for the end of
the forecast period.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, slightly warmer-than-normal
temperatures are still expected throughout the forecast period.
Although there’s a low chance of heat indices exceeding 100 degrees
Fahrenheit, maximum temperatures may reach the low 90s in localized
urban and coastal areas across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected at all terminals through the period. Brief
MVFR possible aft 17/17z at TJBQ/TJPS due to vcty SHRA/-TSRA with
mtn obscurations across interior PR and SHRA/isol TSRA en route.
VCSH possible at TJSJ/TIST/TISX at times. Light SE sfc winds bcm sea-
breeze driven, generally blo 10 kt, with afternoon variations. The
16/00Z TJSJ sndg indicated SE winds up to 8 kt blo FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, a frontal low
moving into the central Atlantic and a weak front and associated pre-
frontal trough moving mainly north of the region will promote light
southeasterly winds to start the day. As another surface high moves
into the western Atlantic and a col moves north of the area, winds
will back to become more easterly late this afternoon into tomorrow,
Wednesday. Hazardous seas, around 7 feet, are expected on Thursday
through early Saturday due to the arrival of a long-period northerly
swell.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Feb 17 2026

North facing beaches of Puerto Rico, and Culebra, are under a
moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone) through late this afternoon becoming a
low risk tonight through early Wednesday. Other beaches of the
islands will have a low risk of rip currents from this morning
through early Wednesday. Even if the risk for rip currents is low,
life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins,
jetties, reefs, and piers.

Beach conditions will quickly deteriorate during the second half of
the week. A long period northerly swell, around 7 feet at 13 seconds
will promote a the moderate risk late Wednesday and a high risk
(life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone) from
Thursday and into the weekend across all northern beaches of PR
(including Vieques and Culebra) and the northern USVI. Therefore,
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions can be
expected during the second part of the week. Visit
weather.gov/beach/sju for the latest information.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

* Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
interior and western Puerto Rico today. Although faster winds
should limit rainfall totals, localized flooding remains
possible, particularly in areas affected by repeated activity.

* Hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected to
develop Thursday and Friday with the arrival of a northerly swell.
Small Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Risk statements will
likely be required, and a High Surf Advisory cannot be ruled out.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, brief passing showers will
continue mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours,
followed by generally fair weather conditions each afternoon.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

A similar weather pattern will persist through today as troughiness
aloft lingers across the northeastern Caribbean. The upper-level jet
continues to exit the region, but cool 500 mb temperatures remain in
place, maintaining modest instability aloft. At the surface, the col
gradually shifts eastward, allowing east to east-northeast winds to
increase once again across the local area.

During the morning hours, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected, with passing showers moving across windward coastal areas
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day progresses,
diurnal heating combined with local effects and residual troughiness
aloft will promote the development of convective activity. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily across
the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours.

However, steering flow will be stronger compared to previous days,
resulting in faster-moving showers. This should limit rainfall
accumulations somewhat, and therefore, the flood threat is expected
to be lower than yesterday. Nevertheless, a limited flooding risk
remains in place across interior and western Puerto Rico, with
localized elevated flooding risk possible in areas that receive
repeated activity.

By Thursday and Friday, a transition toward a more stable pattern is
anticipated as a mid- to upper-level ridge builds over the region.
Mid-level dry air intrusion will gradually increase, while low-level
moisture remains below to near-normal levels. This will promote
generally fair weather conditions. Overnight and morning hours will
feature a few passing showers across windward coastal areas,
followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers over interior
and western Puerto Rico, driven mainly by local effects. Overall, a
drying and stabilizing trend is expected through the end of the
short-term period.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

No major changes to the long term forecast. To start the weekend,
east to southeast flow will bring patches of moisture towards the
islands with Precipitable Water (PWAT values) up to seasonal to
slightly above normal for this time of the year. Patches of drier
air will also filter into the area during the weekend. A Surface
high over the southwestern to central Atlantic will persist during
the weekend along with mid level ridging. These will promote warm
500 mb temperatures, sinking air, and stability aloft. Overnight and
morning shower activity over windward sectors of the islands and
afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW PR, as well
as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque are
possible. However, under this pattern, this activity should remain
limited without much vertical extent (most available moisture should
remain below 800 mb). Although this pattern will persist to start
the workweek, uncertainty remains for Tuesday and into midweek as a
deep-layered trough can move near and over the area and result in
more unstable conditions. Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb
temperatures are forecast for the long term period, particularly to
start the next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites thru the next 24 hrs.
VCSH will persist across TIST/TISX/TJSJ overnight and during the
morning. This aftn, VCTS possible at TJPS btwn 18-21Z. Brief MVFR
conds possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Iso TSRA may result in tempo
MVFR vsby/cigs and mtn obscurations across interior PR. Sfc winds
ENE 8-15 kt with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA. The 18/00Z TJSJ
sndg indicated ENE winds up to 15 kt blo FL030.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winds will gradually increase today, as the weak front and
associated pre-frontal trough move over the Central Atlantic. A
surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will
promote light to moderate easterly winds through the latter part of
the week. Based on the latest model guidance, a long-period
northerly swell is expected to arrive late tonight into early
tomorrow and spread across the local waters and passages. Combined
with strengthening winds, choppy to rough seas are likely,
particularly over the Atlantic water, resulting in hazardous
conditions for small craft. Hence, additional Small Craft
Advisories may be required over the aforementioned zones.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026

Today, mainly tranquil beach conditions are expected across the
islands, with a moderate risk of rip currents along the northern
beach of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, for tonight and a low
risk elsewhere. Although moderate rip current risk conditions will
develop by this evening, beachgoers should exercise caution as
life-threatening rip currents are possible along the surf zone as
the day progresses.

The beach conditions will likely deteriorate by tomorrow,
Thursday, with the arrival of a long-period northerly swell
combined with strengthening winds. Breaking waves between 6 and 7
feet are likely along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday and likely higher by Friday,
resulting in life-threatening rip currents. Hence, a high risk of
rip currents continues on the forecast for tomorrow, likely to
persist through Saturday. Beach conditions should gradually
improve by Sunday, lowering the rip current risk. Residents and
visitors are encouraged to follow the flag warning system and to
stay tuned for the next updates.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will develop today as a long-
period northerly swell arrives. Small Craft Advisories, High Surf
Advisories, and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect.

* Large breaking waves can wash over rocks and jetties, and rip
currents can quickly pull swimmers away from shore. Rough surf may
cause beach erosion and hazardous conditions for small boats.

* This afternoon, showers are expected across the interior and
western parts of Puerto Rico. Most activity should be brief and
localized. While widespread flooding is not expected, ponding of
water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible where heavier
showers occur.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous beach conditions will
develop today through Friday. Therefore, a High Rip Current Risk
is in effect for St. Thomas and St. John. A few passing showers
are possible overnight and early in the morning, followed by
generally fair weather each afternoon.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

A gradual transition toward a more stable pattern is underway across
the northeastern Caribbean as mid-level ridging builds from the west
and previous troughiness aloft continues to shift eastward. GOES
satellite imagery already shows increasing subsidence moving into
the region. Model guidance indicates 500 mb temperatures warming to
above-normal values through the period, along with less steep 700-
500 mb lapse rates. This will promote a more stable environment
overall compared to recent days.

During the morning hours, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected, with passing showers moving across windward coastal areas
of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day
progresses, diurnal heating combined with sea breeze convergence and
local effects will support the development of convective activity.
However, strengthening ridging aloft and warmer mid-level
temperatures should limit vertical growth, resulting in mostly
shallow convection. Showers are expected to develop primarily across
the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours.

Although convection is forecast to be less vigorous, localized urban
and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly across
the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico, where soils
remain saturated, and streamflows are elevated in those areas.
Ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas will be
possible in areas that receive repeated showers. Generally, the
flooding threat appears to be limited.

On Friday and Saturday, mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen
further, promoting continued stabilization. Overnight and morning
hours will feature passing trade wind showers across eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated to scattered
afternoon showers over the interior and western parts of Puerto
Rico, driven by local effects. Activity should remain mostly shallow
due to subsidence aloft. Overall, mostly fair weather conditions are
anticipated through the end of the short-term period.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

To start the next week, southeasterly steering flow will bring
patches of moisture to the region with Precipitable Water (PWAT)
values at normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year.
Patches of drier air with seasonal to below seasonal PWAT will also
reach the region. As a frontal boundary approaches by mid week,
steering flow will back to become more easterly and promote an
increase in available moisture and PWAT values late Wednesday and
Thursday. A surface high over the southwestern to central Atlantic
will gradually move away from the region to start the week as a
frontal low moves over the western Atlantic. However, another
surface high will move into the western to central Atlantic by
midweek. Upper level ridging will also be displaced out of the
region to start the week with a deep layer trough will possibly
approach the region by the latter half of the long term period.
Available moisture can reach above 700 mb to the mid to upper
levels, with cooler mid level temps and general instability.
Overnight and morning shower activity over windward sectors of the
islands and afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW
PR, as well as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque
are forecast under the southeasterly flow. Under the more easterly
flow by midweek and increased moisture this pattern could be
enhanced with afternoon convection over interior to western PR.
Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb temperatures are forecast for the
long term period, particularly to start the next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. No significant weather impacts are
expected during the morning hours. Aft 19/17Z, SHRA may develop
across the interior and western PR. Trade wind showers will likely
promote -SHRA/VCSH at TJSJ, TIST, and TISX aft 19/23Z. Sfc winds
will be from the E-ENE at 8-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations aft 19/14Z. The 19/00Z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds
up to 17 kt blo FL050.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

A surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will
promote light to moderate easterly winds today and Friday, becoming
moderate to locally fresh by Friday night. A long-period northerly
swell will continue to spread across the local Atlantic waters and
passages today and Friday. Combined with strengthening winds,
confused moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous seas for
small craft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the
Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late Friday night. A
gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected later in the
weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026

Beach conditions are gradually deteriorating as a long-period
northerly swell spreads across the local Atlantic waters and
passages today. Based on the latest model guidance and NDBC buoy
observations, breaking waves are expected between 6 and 8 feet,
increasing up to 10 and 12 feet by noon today. Hence, high surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents are expected along the
beaches from northwest to northeastern Puerto Rico, including
Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk Statements are in
effect.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the
water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local
advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local
officials as conditions deteriorate.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
441 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions will persist due to a long-
period northerly swell affecting the regional waters. Small Craft
Advisories and High Surf Advisories remain in effect, along with a
High Risk of Rip Currents.

* Breaking waves and strong rip currents will continue to create
life-threatening conditions along exposed Atlantic coastlines and
northern beaches, including portions of Puerto Rico from Rincon to
Fajardo, as well as Culebra, St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent
islands. Wave action may also lead to minor beach erosion and
hazardous conditions for small craft.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, hazardous marine and coastal
conditions will continue due to the long-period northerly swell,
with high risk of rip currents along exposed beaches. Breezy trade
winds will steer passing showers across the islands at times,
particularly overnight and during the morning hours, followed by
generally fair conditions each afternoon.

* Another trough and associated frontal boundary are forecast to
approach the region by midweek next week, likely bringing a
renewed period of deteriorating weather and hazardous marine and
coastal impacts.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed during the overnight hours,
with Doppler radar detecting a few showers over the local waters.
However, most of this activity remained offshore through the night,
resulting in quiet conditions across the islands.

The overall pattern has changed little from previous days. Mid- to
upper-level ridging remains in place across the northeastern
Caribbean, promoting subsidence aloft and maintaining relatively dry
air in the 700-500 mb layer. Model guidance through Sunday shows
precipitable water values generally fluctuating between around 0.9
and 1.5 inches, with periodic patches of moisture streaming across
the region. These brief increases in low-level moisture will support
passing showers from time to time, but the persistent mid-level
dryness will continue to limit vertical mixing and keep convection
mostly shallow.

Therefore, during the overnight and early morning hours, passing
showers are expected to move at times across windward coastal areas
of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, steered by
easterly to southeasterly trade winds. By late morning into the
afternoon, local effects, sea breeze convergence, and diurnal
heating will promote the development of isolated to scattered
showers across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico.
However, as mentioned earlier, given the dry mid-level air and
subsidence aloft, activity should remain brief and primarily shallow.

Although widespread flooding is not anticipated, localized ponding
of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas cannot be ruled out
where showers persist. Overall, partly cloudy to mostly fair weather
conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday, with intermittent
passing showers embedded within the trade wind flow.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

The long-term forecast begins with a stable and relatively quiet
weather pattern as a broad surface high-pressure system extending
across the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean maintains a steady
southeasterly wind flow across the islands. This wind pattern will
favor warm daytime temperatures, particularly across northern and
western Puerto Rico. Precipitable water values between 1.1 and 1.3
inches, mostly from the shallow moisture trapped below 700 mb, will
support afternoon convection driven by diurnal heating and local sea
breeze convergence, mainly across northwestern Puerto Rico. On
Tuesday, surface conditions will gradually shift as a prefrontal
trough associated with an approaching frontal boundary moves north
of Hispaniola, diminishing the pressure gradient and allowing light
and variable winds through Wednesday. This more relaxed flow pattern
may enhance local convergence and allow showers to develop more
efficiently despite modest moisture availability. Overall rainfall
accumulations early in the period should remain limited, with minor
ponding possible in urban and poor drainage areas during peak
afternoon activity.

By Wednesday, a transition toward a more unsettled pattern is
expected as deeper moisture associated with the frontal boundary
spreads across the region and low-level winds shift to the east-
northeast. Increasing precipitable water values, colder temperatures
aloft near 500 mb, and divergence associated with an upper-level
trough will enhance instability and vertical development. This setup
may support more widespread shower activity, periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall, and isolated thunderstorm development,
particularly across northern and interior Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Localized flooding in urban and low-lying areas
cannot be ruled out if training showers develop. From late Wednesday
into Thursday, surface high pressure building from the Western into
the Central Atlantic will gradually reestablish moderate easterly
trade winds. However, lingering mid-level moisture and pockets of
instability may continue to generate passing showers, especially
overnight and during the early morning hours across windward areas,
followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico. A
variable weather pattern is expected to persist into the latter part
of the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites thru the next 24 hrs.
Brief VCSH psbl over windward terminals and local waters thru the
mrng hrs. After 20/14Z, SHRA may develop across interior/western PR
with limited impacts to TJBQ and psbly TJPS. Variable sfc winds blo
10 kts, bcmg 12-16 kts with gusts up to 20–22 kts aft 20/14Z with
sea breeze variations. The 20/00Z TJSJ sndg indicated ESE winds up
to 17 kt blo FL050.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

A long-period northerly swell will continue to spread across the
local Atlantic waters and passages through late tonight. At the same
time, a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic
will promote light to moderate easterly winds through today,
becoming moderate to locally fresh by tonight. Thus, confused
moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous seas for small craft
during this period. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the
Mona Passage, Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late
tonight. A gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected
later in the weekend. Another swell could reach the islands by the
middle of next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

A long period northerly swell will continue to promote hazardous
coastal conditions along northern exposed beaches. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect through *6 PM this evening for the
northwest, north and northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as
Culebra, due to large breaking waves up to 10 to 12 feet. A High
Risk of Rip Currents (life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the surf zone) will also continue for the northwest, north and
northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, St. Thomas &
St. John through at least tomorrow, Saturday afternoon.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of these
exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all
local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local
officials as conditions deteriorate.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
231 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents continue across the northern
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John.

* Near to above-normal daytime temperatures will continue through
the next few days. However, mostly clear skies at night will
allow for cooler temperatures overnight.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy, sunny to partly cloudy
skies, and passing showers are expected today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands during the
overnight and early morning hours. Passing trade wind showers were
observed across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern portions of
Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to continue through the rest
of the morning hours. Followed by limited shower development in the
afternoon hours over portions of central and western PR. Flooding is
not anticipated, but ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage
areas is possible. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 50s
across the higher elevations of PR, to the upper 60s and low 70s
across the lower elevations of the islands. The wind was from the
east between 8 and 12 mph with land breeze variations.

The main hazard today will be the life-threatening rip currents
along the northern beaches of PR, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John.
A Rip Current Statement is in effect through this evening for these
areas.

The local area will continue under the influence of a low-to mid-
level ridge, and a broad surface high pressure over the Central
Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds,
drier air aloft, and overall stable conditions in general. Winds
will gradually turn more east to southeast late in the period as a
surface low and associated cold front moves over the Western
Atlantic. In terms of precipitation, patches of low-level moisture
embedded in the trade winds will move at times from the Tropical
Atlantic. This will promote passing showers across the USVI and
windward areas of the islands for most of the period. In the
afternoon, the combination of the available moisture content with
daytime heating, and the sea breeze convergence should lead to the
development of showers over portions of west/northwest PR. However,
flooding is not anticipated with this activity through the rest of
the weekend.

Daily high temperatures should range from the upper 80s to low
90s across the lower elevations of the islands, to the mid-70s
across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures are expected to
remain from the upper 50s across the higher elevations to the low
70s across coastal areas. Winds will continue from the east to
east- southeast in general between 15 and 20 mph, with sea/land
breeze variations during the day/night.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-
term period as a pre-frontal trough, associated with an
approaching frontal boundary, moves northwest of the area and
north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a broad high-pressure system over
the Central Atlantic continues to promote a southeasterly wind
flow across the region. Under these conditions, a weak pressure
gradient resulting from this interaction will cause winds to
become light and variable through at least Wednesday. Precipitable
water content will remain above normal during this period, with
values reaching 1.50 to 1.90 inches. This moist and unstable
pattern will favor the development of afternoon convective
activity across central and northwestern Puerto Rico. Temperatures
at the 500 mb level will range between -7 to -8°C; combined with
instability aloft from an upper-level trough, this could enhance
the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms. During this
period, the risk of excessive rainfall remains limited, though
ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas and minor
flooding may occur in the aforementioned areas.

By Wednesday, winds are expected to shift from the east in response
to a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic. As
this high migrates toward the central Atlantic, winds will gradually
increase. From Thursday onward, a more stable weather pattern will
return to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the
Central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper level ridge establishes over
the region. Therefore, passing showers carried by the trade winds
are anticipated to affect windward portions of the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours,
followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western
Puerto Rico. This pattern is expected to prevail through the end
of the period.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain above climatological
values each day due to the combination of available moisture and
southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast to reach the mid-to-
upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s to low 80s across
the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA en route from the Leeward
terminals may cause brief MVFR cigs across the USVI terminals thru
21/20z, meanwhile, locally induced -SHRA expected to develop in and
around TJSJ/TJBQ btw 21/16-22z. East winds expected to increase
around 15 kt with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft
21/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

Marine conditions will continue to improve across the local
waters as a northerly swell subsides, resulting in seas up to 6
feet across the Atlantic waters during the day. However, small
craft operators are still urged to exercise caution across most
local waters due to seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots.
Seas are forecast to deteriorate once again on Tuesday as another
northerly swell reaches the local waters and builds seas up to 8
feet. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026

A fading long-period northerly swell will continue to generate
life-threatening rip currents across the northern beaches of the
islands. A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the north-
facing beaches of St. Thomas, St. John, Puerto Rico, and Culebra
through this evening. Breaking waves up to 6 feet and higher at
times are expected along these beaches. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected on Sunday across most east and north facing
beaches of the islands. Another northerly swell will once again
deteriorate coastal conditions by the middle of the upcoming
workweek, resulting in dangerous rip currents along the northern
coasts of the islands. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of these
exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow
all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
241 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

* East to southeast winds will bring passing showers to windward
areas through Monday, with isolated afternoon showers possible
across interior and western Puerto Rico.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S
Virgin Islands.

* Sunny skies and southeasterly winds will promote near to above
normal temperatures across the lower elevations of the islands.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy condition and passing
showers are expected during the morning and early afternoon
hours.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the islands during the overnight
and early morning hours. Showers were noted mainly across the local
waters. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 50s across the
higher elevations of Puerto Rico to the low 70s across the lower
elevations of the islands. The wind was from the east at 10 mph or
less. A drier air mass will continue to filter over PR during the
morning hours, and mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail.
However, across the U.S. Virgin Islands, an area of low-level clouds
with scattered showers currently over the Leeward Islands, will
promote partly sunny skies and quick passing showers through the
early afternoon hours.

A low-to mid-level ridge will move over the region today, promoting
fair weather conditions across the islands in general. This ridge
will continue to move eastward into the central Atlantic by Tuesday,
and similar weather conditions are expected on Monday, as overall
drier air with PWAT content btw 1-1.25 inches and stable conditions
aloft prevail over the northeastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, winds will
gradually shift from the southeast through at least early Tuesday,
when a col area and pre-frontal trough develops over the local area.
This will bring a significant surge in moisture content compared to
previous days, as PWAT increases to 1.75 inches, and the associated
upper level trough promotes colder 500 mb temps near -9C. Therefore,
expect showers to increase in coverage and intensity, with possible
isolated thunderstorm development.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low
90s across the lower elevations of the islands, to the mid 70s
across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures under mostly
clear skies are expected to range from the upper 50s across the
higher elevations of PR, to the upper 60s and low 70s across the
lower elevations. Breezy conditions are expected today with east
to southeast winds ranging between 15 and 20 mph. Lighter winds
are expected on Tuesday, with with sea/land breezes dominating the
flow.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-term
period as a pre-frontal trough associated with an approaching
frontal boundary moves northwest of the area and north of
Hispaniola. By Wednesday, the surface influence of the frontal band
will persist, bringing abundant moisture and cloudiness into the
region with precipitable water values rounding in the 1.7 inches.
At the upper and mid-levels, a 65-knot jet streak aloft and mid-
level temperatures between -8 and -9 °C will further enhance
atmospheric instability. As a result, widespread cloudiness is
expected across northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with thunderstorm activity possible within the heaviest
showers. From Thursday into Friday, lingering moisture associated
with the remnants of the frontal boundary will remain in place;
however, high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually
become the dominant weather feature. As this high strengthens and
extends into the Caribbean, the pressure gradient will tighten,
leading to moderate to locally strong easterly winds from Thursday
through Sunday. Although shower activity will continue, faster
steering flow will promote quick-moving showers with minimal
rainfall accumulations, and no flood threat is anticipated.

From Saturday into Sunday, a more stable weather pattern will return
to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the Central
Atlantic and a mid-to upper-level ridge becomes established
across the region. Although moisture associated with the previous
frontal boundary will have moved out of the area, wind-advected
cloudiness and patches of moisture driven by a strong pressure
gradient across the Central Atlantic will continue to reach the
islands. Model guidance suggests precipitable water values may
surpass the 75th percentile during this period, supporting a
showery pattern despite the generally stable regime. As a result,
breezy to locally windy conditions are expected under a persistent
easterly wind flow, with fast-moving trade wind showers affecting
windward portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico during the early morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico. This
pattern of breezy conditions and passing showers is expected to
persist through the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Mostly VCSH expected across the area
terminals throughout the day. East-southeast winds increasing
between 12 and 16 kt with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations
aft 22/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds across the
regional waters through today. Winds will gradually shift from the
southeast and south on Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the arrival of the
front will increase shower activity, with few to isolated
thunderstorms possible. A long-period north-northwest swell is
expected to move into the local Atlantic waters by the middle of
next week, deteriorating marine conditions and building seas up to
8 feet through the later part of the week. Mariners should
monitor later forecasts for updates on increasing seas and
changing weather conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

The rip current risk is moderate across most local beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, except along the south to
southwest coast of PR, where the risk remains low. Similar
beach/rip current conditions are expected to persist through at
least Tuesday.

A long-period northwesterly swell arrive across the local waters,
deteriorating coastal conditions by Wednesday. This swell will
result in life-threathening rip currents along the northern coasts
of the islands. Beachgoers and unexperienced surfers are urged to
stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and
follow all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official
guidance

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
307 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

* Southeast winds will promote warmer-than-normal temperatures
today.

* Rain chances will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with
a limited to elevated flood threat.

* A long period northwesterly swell will bring hazardous seas,
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions from
Wednesday through Friday.

* Across the USVI, southerly winds and high temperatures between
the mid-to upper-80s are expected. Showers will increase from
late tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

For today, expect generally fair and stable weather conditions
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as a low-to mid-
level ridge extends from the Central Atlantic. The region will
experience a near-normal to drier-than-normal airmass, with
precipitable water values peaking just around 1.25 inches or
lower. Consequently, shower activity will be highly limited once
again, consisting mostly of a few passing morning showers across
the USVI and eastern PR, and minimal, afternoon showers developing
over northwestern PR. Surface winds will prevail from the
southeast, gradually shifting more from the east to east-northeast
from late Tuesday into Wednesday. Therefore, expect warmer-than-
normal temperatures today, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the lower elevations of the islands.

A significant shift in the weather pattern is expected starting
Tuesday as a col area and pre-frontal trough develop over the
region. A sharp surge in moisture is expected, driving
precipitable water values well above normal seasonal levels to
around 1.75 inches. An upper-level trough associated with the
frontal system will lower 500 mb temperatures to around -8.5C,
increasing instability and supporting increased cloudiness, higher
rain chances, and the potential for isolated thunderstorms across
portions of the local waters and central PR, where the flood
threat will be elevated. Across the USVI, heavy downpours cannot
be ruled out at times, and a limited flood threat is expected
there.

Similar unsettled conditions will carry over into Wednesday, as
global model guidance indicates that, despite a brief early-day
dip in precipitable water to around 1.40 inches, moisture levels
will quickly rebound once again to near 1.75 inches by midday.
With 500mb temperatures remaining relatively cool at around -8C
and mid-level relative humidity peaking again, reaching near 60%
in the 700-500mb layer and up to 80% in the 850-700mb layer, the
potential for lingering showers and an elevated threat for urban
and small stream flooding will persist through the middle of the
week, and mainly across PR, as drier conditions are expected
across the USVI.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

A transition from wet, unstable conditions to a drier and more
stable weather pattern is expected during the first half of the long-
term period. However, lingering moisture associated with the
remnants of a frontal boundary will continue to reach the islands,
promoting shower activity across the region through at least
Friday. During this time, precipitable water (PWAT) values will
remain above normal, reaching approximately 1.50 inches.

As the week progresses, a surface high pressure system over the
central Atlantic will strengthen and become the dominant feature.
This strengthening will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
moderate to locally fresh east-to-southeasterly winds from Thursday
night through Monday. Under this regime, the trade winds will carry
quick-moving showers across the region, though rainfall accumulations
are expected to be minimal.

By the second half of the period, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will
establish itself across the northeastern Caribbean, promoting dry
and stable conditions aloft. From Saturday onward, PWAT values
will drop below the climatological normal to around 0.80 inches,
supporting a relatively dry pattern into early next week.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near normal to slightly
above climatological values each day due to the combination of
available moisture and southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast
to reach the mid-to-upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s
to low 80s across the higher elevations through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Mostly VCSH expected across the area
terminals throughout the day. Southeast winds are expected to
increase between 10 and 15 kt with stronger gusts after 23/13z.
At TJBQ, a northerly sea breeze variation is expected from
23/16-22z, as well as possible tempo MVFR conds due to -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

Marine conditions will remain in the good side due to the
influence of a surface high pressure system over the central
Atlantic. This main feature will maintain moderate southeasterly
winds for the morning hours; however, a pre-frontal trough
approaching the islands tonight into Tuesday will gradually veer
surface winds from the south. As a result variable winds will be
present on Tuesday into Wednesday, under the influence of a
frontal boundary. Additionally, as the frontal boundary shifts to
the northwest, increased moisture will increase shower activity
and the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine
conditions are forecast from late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
long-period northwesterly swell is expected to spread into the
local Atlantic waters. This energy will result in deteriorating
marine conditions and building seas up to 8 feet through the end
of the week. Small craft advisories are expected during this
period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 244 AM AST Mon Feb 23 2026

For today and into early Tuesday, there will be a moderate risk of
rip currents across the northern, exposed local beaches of Puerto
Rico and St. Thomas. For the rest of the local exposed coastal
areas, including Vieques, the risk will remain low. A north-
northwesterly long-period swell will reach the local islands,
resulting in deteriorated coastal conditions from Wednesday into
Friday. Expect life-threatening rip currents, and high surf
conditions across all north-exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, the
western coast, Culebra, and St. Thomas. Therefore, during this
period, beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay
out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow
all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official
guidance. For more specific location information, visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
209 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

* Shower and thunderstorm activity expected to increase this
afternoon across the interior of Puerto Rico, where there is an
elevated flood threat.

* Across the USVI, passing showers will increase early this
morning, with a drying trend expected on Wednesday.

* A long period northwesterly swell will bring hazardous seas,
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions from
Wednesday through at least Friday. Continue to monitor the
forecast in the coming days and heed the advice of lifeguards,
flags and signs.

* Minor concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to filter late
tonight.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 142 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

A col area north of the region and a developing pre-frontal trough
will bring a surge in low-level moisture today, with precipitable
water content increasing around 1.75 inches by this afternoon. At
the upper levels, a trough will promote colder 500 mb temperatures
around -8.5C through at least Wednesday. Therefore, expect showers
to increase in coverage and intensity, with isolated thunderstorm
development. There is an elevated flood threat(urban and small
stream flooding, with possible isolated flash flooding) for most of
the interior and western sections of PR today, and a limited flood
threat across the USVI, Vieques, Culebra, and the eastern portions
of PR, where ponding of water on roads and minor flooding is
possible. On Wednesday, although moisture content will fluctuate
around climatology (1.40-1.70 inches), a drier air mass with minor
concentrations of Saharan dust will filter from the east overnight
and through the early morning hours, and limit shower activity
gradually across the USVI and eastern sections of PR. However, the
available moisture content, combined with daytime heating and local
effects will trigger shower and isolated thunderstorm activity over
western PR in the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall is possible with this activity. Meanwhile, a surface high
pressure strengthening over the Central Atlantic, will promote
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and bring low-level clouds
and passing showers from the Tropical Atlantic into the local area
through Thursday. Rainfall totals on Thursday should not cause
flooding concerns due to the fast moving nature of the showers, and
as an overall drier air mass remains in place, with PWAT dropping
below climatology.

Daytime temperatures will drop around 2-4 degrees compared to
yesterday as showers increase today, and the stronger trades (15-20
knots) return through the rest of the short-term period. Highs are
forecast to range from the mid 80s to the upper 80s across the lower
elevations, to the mid 70s across the higher elevations.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 142 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

A broad surface high pressure system across the Central Atlantic
will be the dominant weather feature for most of the period across
the forecast area. This system will promote moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds on Friday. Under this wind pattern, patches of
shallow moisture with precipitable water values from 1.4 to 1.7
inches will move across the islands, enhancing cloudiness and
supporting a showery pattern, especially across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours. On
Saturday, a slight variation in the wind pattern is forecast, with
winds veering as the surface high interacts with an induced pre-
frontal trough over the western Atlantic and its associated
frontal boundary. This interaction will maintain moderate
southeasterly winds from Saturday through Monday. Therefore, the
islands can expect persistent patches of shallow but sufficient
moisture to sustain a variable and showery weather pattern during
this period. Morning showers are expected across portions of the
U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection,
particularly across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico and
the San Juan metropolitan area, aided by showers developing near
the El Yunque region in streamers. Although showers may be locally
significant, especially in the afternoon, widespread flooding is
not anticipated. Minor flooding may occur in low-lying and urban
areas. Breezy conditions are also expected, as suggested by 925
mb winds ranging between 18 and 20 knots.

By Tuesday, an increase in surface moisture is forecast as a frontal
boundary approaches north of the islands, with associated cloudiness
and moisture slightly above the climatological normals reaching the
northern sections of Puerto Rico. The approach of this system will
promote a more pronounced easterly wind pattern across the region.
As a result, showers are expected across eastern Puerto Rico and
along the north and northeast coasts. Residents and visitors are
urged to stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

Mainly VFR early in the fcst period across all terminals.
SHRA/TSRA expected to develop along the interior and western PR
btw 24/16-22z. This may cause tempo MVFR conditions across the PR
terminals, and mtn tops obscd. Low-level winds expected E-ESE up
to 12 kt with a northerly component at TJBQ/TJSJ from late this
morning through the mid-afternoon hours due to the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

An approaching front from the western Atlantic and a developing
pre-frontal trough will promote light and variable winds today
across the Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage. Shower activity
and the potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase from
this afternoon through tonight. A long-period north-northwesterly
swell is expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and
passages from late tonight into Wednesday morning, building seas
between 6 and 9 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger
through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Moderate
to fresh trades will return during the second part of the
workweek, as surface high pressure builds over the Central
Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 142 AM AST Tue Feb 24 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the north and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques,
as well as St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. Be aware that life-
threatening rip currents can occur, especially in exposed beaches
near rocks, piers, and jetties.

A long-period northwesterly swell will arrive late tonight into
early Wednesday morning, peaking between Wednesday evening and early
Thursday morning. This will increase the risk of rip currents to
high, beginning Wednesday morning, with hazardous conditions (high
surf, minor beach erosion, and life-threatening rip currents) expected
through Friday.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Beach
goers and unexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches exposed
to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never
swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, stay calm and float
rather than fight it.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
247 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Hazardous seas, life-threatening rip currents and high surf
conditions are expected through at least Friday along the
Atlantic waters and passages, and along the north-facing beaches
of the islands.

* Breezy conditions and passing trade wind showers expected for
the next few days.

* Across the USVI, breezy, and quick passing showers can be
expected at times.

* Minor concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to continue
today over the region.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

The short-term period will be characterized by a transition toward
a drier, breezier tradewind pattern, followed by a slight rebound
in shallow moisture by the end of the workweek. Today, a drier
air mass filtering in will begin to limit shower intensity in
general. The GFS indicates precipitable water (PWAT) values
briefly dipping to 0.90 inches before settling near the 25th
percentile (around 1.2 to 1.4 inches) later in the day. Although
PWAT values will remain near climatological levels, mid-level
drying and traces of Saharan dust will promote more stable
conditions, particularly during the morning hours. This mid-level
drying is evident in the 700mb-500mb relative humidity layer,
which drops noticeably through Thursday. By this afternoon,
convection should be limited, with isolated to scattered showers,
favoring western Puerto Rico due to local effects and daytime
heating. Any rainfall accumulations are expected to be localized
and less than an inch, reducing the flood threat compared to
yesterday.

As the week progresses, a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic will strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient and
promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds. The 925mb wind
speeds jump from 10–15 knots early this morning to 18–22 knots
through Thursday and Friday. By Thursday, these stronger trades
will result in faster-moving showers embedded within the flow,
mainly affecting windward coastal areas overnight and in the
morning. Afternoon convection across the interior and western
sections of Puerto Rico will remain possible but should be less
widespread due to the drier mid-level air. Overall, flooding
concerns should remain limited given the progressive nature of the
showers and decreasing moisture content, with PWAT values
trending near to below climatology normals.

For Friday, the broad surface high pressure across the Central
Atlantic will remain the dominant weather feature, keeping
moderate to fresh easterly winds in place. However, the global
model guidance shows a rebound in lower-level moisture, with PWAT
values climbing back into the 1.40 to 1.70 inch range and
corresponding spikes in the 850-700mb relative humidity (70–80%).
Under this wind pattern, these patches of shallow moisture moving
across the islands will enhance cloudiness and support a showery
pattern once again, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, and better organized
afternoon convection over west/northwest PR.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A strong surface high pressure system over the north-central
Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern through the period,
maintaining fresh to occasionally strong low-level winds across the
islands. Winds will generally range from east-southeast to southeast
from Saturday through Monday, becoming more easterly by Tuesday as
the high shifts. This wind regime will support slightly warmer
daytime temperatures over the weekend, followed by modest cooling as
the easterly flow becomes established. A weak trade wind cap
inversion, combined with slightly drier air and lower precipitable
water over the weekend, will limit shower coverage. On Monday,
moisture levels are expected to increase, and a weak upper-level
short-wave trough to the north, with stronger jet-level winds
overhead, will create conditions favorable for eroding the trade
wind cap and supporting deeper moisture and showers. Temperatures
are expected to remain near seasonal averages overall.

From a hazard perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will
persist, which may make outdoor activities or small-scale operations
more difficult. Showers may become heavier and more widespread
Monday, particularly across eastern and west-northwestern Puerto
Rico. Minor flooding in urban and low-lying areas is possible,
especially during the afternoon hours, though widespread flooding is
not expected. The combination of strong low-level winds and fast-
moving showers may also produce brief heavy rainfall, localized
impacts, and gusty conditions that could affect exposed areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind SHRA could move at
times across the area terminals, causing mostly VCSH. At TJBQ,
VCTS expected btw 25/16-22z due to iso TSRA developing over
western PR. The wind will prevail from the east at 12-17 knots,
with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft 25/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell will spread across the
Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building seas between 6
and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday,
and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Atlantic waters and
local passages. Moderate to fresh trades will return through the end
of the week, as a surface high pressure strengthens over the Central
Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 237 AM AST Wed Feb 25 2026

A long-period north-northwesterly swell is expected to arrive and
spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages today through
at least Friday. A Rip Current Statement is in effect through
Friday afternoon due to life-threatening rip currents along
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. In addition, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect from
6 AM AST this morning though 6 AM AST Friday, as we anticipate
large breaking waves and minor beach erosion, particularly
hazardous for beachgoers. Beach conditions will start to improve
by Saturday as the swell gradually subsides.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do
not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
400 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue along the
Atlantic coastlines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Life- threatening rip currents and dangerous breaking
waves are expected from Rincon to Fajardo, including Culebra,
St. Thomas, and St. John.

* Breezy trade winds will bring passing showers across the USVI
and PR's windward sections through the end of the week. Most
showers will be brief and fast-moving, but isolated periods of
moderate to heavy rain could cause ponding on roads and reduced
visibility.

* Friday appears to be the wettest day of the short term, with
warmer temperatures and a slightly higher chance of afternoon
thunderstorms. Widespread flooding is not expected, but
localized impacts remain possible.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. High-level cirrus clouds moved eastward
across the northeastern Caribbean. A few brief showers passed over
windward (eastern, including E-PR/USVI) locations, but most of
the rain activity remained over the regional waters. Temperatures
fell into the middle or lower 70s along the coast and into the low
60s, and even cooler, across the higher elevations and valleys,
at the moment of writing this discussion. Winds were light
overall, ranging from calm in some western areas to 5-15 mph
across exposed eastern sites.

A surface high pressure system building across the central and
western Atlantic will promote a typical trade wind pattern over
the next several days. Breezy easterly winds today will bring
fast-moving patches of moisture across the region. By Friday
afternoon into Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the east-
southeast, allowing temperatures to trend warmer and pooling
additional moisture, especially on Friday.

Most showers will move quickly from east to west. Although brief
periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible, the
fast motion of showers should limit the potential for widespread
flooding. However, residents and visitors should remain alert for
brief reductions in visibility and ponding of water on roadways
and in poorly drained areas.

Mid-level air remains relatively dry, limiting the overall
coverage of afternoon convection. Still, localized showers are
expected each afternoon over interior and western Puerto Rico due
to daytime heating. Rainfall coverage is forecast to increase
somewhat on Friday as available moisture deepens, and a few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out (thus, we included the isolated
thunderstorms for the afternoon). Friday is currently the wettest
day of the short-term period.

The primary hazard at this time remains hazardous marine and
coastal conditions along the Atlantic-facing coastlines. Dangerous
breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents are expected
from Rincon through Fajardo, including Culebra, as well as across
St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands. Beachgoers are
strongly urged to follow local safety guidance and avoid entering
the water where rip current risk is high. Overall, flooding
concerns remain limited due to the fast-moving nature of showers
and moisture values trending near to slightly below climatological
normals.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue
to dominate the regional pattern through midweek, maintaining a
tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain from
the east-southeast to southeast on Sunday, gradually backing to
easterly Monday night into Tuesday as the high shifts eastward. By
Wednesday, an additional high building into the western Atlantic
will reinforce the gradient and promote east to east- northeast
winds across the region. This evolving wind pattern will govern
moisture transport and shower distribution. Sunday will remain
relatively stable with lingering drier air and a weak trade wind
cap limiting convection; however, moisture will increase beginning
Sunday night and persist through midweek, with embedded patches
of deeper moisture moving within the trade wind flow.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist each day, with gusty periods
possible in exposed and elevated areas. Frequent passing showers
will continue daily as strong trade winds push moisture inland, with
coverage increasing Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture moves
across the region. As winds shift from east-southeast to easterly
and eventually east-northeasterly, shower activity will adjust,
favoring eastern and southeastern areas at first, then northeastern
areas later in the period, while afternoon showers develop over
interior and western Puerto Rico. Significant rainfall may
accumulate where showers repeatedly move over the same areas, and
isolated heavier afternoon downpours could lead to minor urban and
small stream flooding, particularly Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal normals. Overall, the primary hazards
through midweek will be persistent breezy to windy conditions each
day and an limited flooding risk early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Patches of low-level clouds
moving from the east will bring SCT to brief BKN ceilings at times
across local terminals. Also, some showers will develop near JBQ
between 26/18-23z. Winds will prevail calm to light and variable
across the leeward sites, and from E at 8-11 kt across the
windward sites. After 26/13z, winds will be mainly from the E at
10-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations through
26/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

The long-period north-northwesterly swell will continue to spread
across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building
seas between 6 and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger
through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all
Atlantic waters and local passages. Fresh to locally strong trades
will return through the end of the week, as a surface high
pressure strengthens over the Central Atlantic.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026

The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northern shore of
Puerto Rico, from Rincon through Fajardo and was extended to Culebra
and Saint Thomas through Friday. In these areas, expect localized
beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swell energy will
also result in hazardous beach conditions in Vieques and Saint
Croix. For further details on hazard timing and locations, please
refer to CFWSJU. Beach conditions will start to improve by
Saturday as the swell gradually subsides.

For safety, always check local conditions before swimming.
Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches
exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard,
never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do
not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
327 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents will impact north-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. The highest
risk extends from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, Vieques, and
across the USVI.

* Breezy trade winds will bring fast-moving showers through
Sunday. Brief heavy rain may cause ponding on roads and reduced
visibility, especially across the USVI and PR's windward areas,
especially today and Sunday.

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue into next week. This
pattern will dominate the weather conditions from Tuesday
through Thursday.

* Hazardous marine conditions are expected today. Choppy to rough
seas and fresh to locally strong winds will create dangerous
conditions for small craft throughout much of the forecast
period.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. High-level cirrus clouds moved eastward
across the northeastern Caribbean, while mid and low-level clouds
filtered from the east embedded in the winds. Most of the shower
activity was observed over the local waters, but some moved inland
across the USVI and PR's windward areas. Temperatures fell into
the middle or lower 70s along the coast and into the low 60s, and
even cooler, across the higher elevations and valleys, early this
morning. Winds were mainly dominated by land-breeze across the
leeward sides of the islands, and from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph
across the windward locations.

A strong-surface high pressure system extending from the Central
to Western Atlantic will promote breezy to locally windy ESE winds
today into the weekend. These breezy easterlies will bring a
surge of moisture today, increasing the frequency of shower
activity from now onward, especially from late this morning into
the evening. Although we anticipate fast-moving showers, this
activity will bring periods of moderate to locally heavy rain,
resulting in ponding of waters across portions of the USVI and the
eastern sections of PR. Around mid-morning into the afternoon,
this activity will move further westward into the interior and
western sections of PR, resulting in downpours due to the
orographic and diurnal heating effects. This heating will promote
the potential for one or two thunderstorms across the mountains or
western PR during the afternoon. We cannot rule out isolated
urban flooding, given the potential for persistent rain
entrainment today.

A drier air mass and more southeast winds are expected for
Saturday. Combined with the presence of mid-level dry air, we do
not anticipate strong convection. Still, showers will be mainly
confined over northwest PR due to the anticipated above-normal
daytime heating, supported by near-to-above-normal 925 mb
temperatures. Another surge of moisture embedded in the winds will
increase the frequency of showers and clouds across portions of
the islands on Sunday.

The primary hazard at this time remains the hazardous beach
conditions along the Atlantic-facing coastlines due to life-
threatening rip currents. These conditions are expected from
Rincon through Fajardo, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as
across St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands, and St. Croix.
Beachgoers are strongly urged to follow local safety guidance and
avoid entering the water where rip current risk is high. Please
avoid being part of the statistics.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026

A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue
to dominate the regional pattern through late week, maintaining a
tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain generally
easterly Monday into Tuesday, shifting to east to east-northeast by
Wednesday and Thursday as an additional high builds into the western
Atlantic and reinforces the gradient. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal normals.

Moisture will remain variable but generally above normal early in
the week, with embedded patches of deeper moisture moving within the
trade wind flow Monday and Tuesday. This will support frequent
passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours
across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection over
interior and western Puerto Rico each day. As winds become more east-
northeasterly late in the period, shower activity will favor eastern
and northeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall may occur where showers
repeatedly move over the same locations, especially Monday and
Tuesday, resulting in a limited risk of minor urban and small stream
flooding. A gradual drying trend is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday. Nevertheless, passing showers remain possible.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist, particularly from late
Tuesday onward, with gusty periods likely. Overall, the primary
hazards through Thursday will be the increase in wind speeds and a
limited flooding risk early in the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
340 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

* Moderate rip current risk will persist across most beaches of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands this weekend. Breezy
southeast winds will continue to create hazardous swimming
conditions.

* Breezy southeast winds will bring fast-moving showers each day.
Brief heavy rain may cause ponding on roads and reduced
visibility, especially across windward areas.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will prevail across Puerto Rico
and the US Virgin Islands over the next few days. Expect hotter
afternoons and milder-than-usual nights compared to typical
February and March conditions.

* Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic
and Caribbean Offshore Waters, and Caribbean Passages through
the weekend. Fresh to Strong winds, producing choppy and rough
seas, will create dangerous conditions for small craft.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm across the USVI, with
little or no rainfall. Meanwhile, a pocket of moisture brought
showers mainly across east and south Puerto Rico, while the rest
of the islands observed mostly quiet weather. Still over the
region, a layer of cirrus clouds is moving across the northeastern
Caribbean, while the east-southeast winds brought some low-level
clouds. While writing this discussion, we observed temperatures in
the upper 70s across the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or
low-70s along the coast, and in the mid-60s and even cooler across
the higher elevations and valleys. Winds were mainly land breeze
across the leeward sides of the islands, from the ESE at 5 to 10
mph, with some higher gusts at coastal stations in the windward
locations.

The Azores High will dominate our local weather pattern,
promoting breezy to locally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few
days. Model guidance indicates 925 MB winds above normal levels
(around the 75th percentile of the local climatology for this
month). Although we expect good periods of sunshine or mostly
clear skies, these breezy winds will bring pockets of moisture
daily, resulting in quick-moving showers, especially across the
windward locations. Then, by the afternoon, under the southeast
wind flow, we cannot rule out some showers developing across the
northwest quadrant of PR and downwind from the USVI. As a result,
at times we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy rain,
leading to ponding of water across portions of the islands.

Model guidance suggests near-normal to above-normal temperatures
at 925 MB during the next few days. This trend could indicate
warmer-than-normal temperatures across both PR and the USVI each
day.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

At the beginning of the long-term period, a broad surface high-
pressure system will be positioned over the northeastern Atlantic,
while another builds across the western Atlantic. This pattern will
promote mainly easterly winds on Tuesday, shifting to predominantly
northeasterly winds for the remainder of the period. As the pressure
gradient tightens across our region, breezy to windy conditions are
likely from Tuesday onward. As a result, winds will be one of the
primary weather concerns. The wind risk will fluctuate from limited
to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands.
Residents should secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be blown
around or damaged.

The latest model guidance suggests that moisture content will remain
variable, oscillating between near-seasonal levels and slightly
above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow.
Precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.20 and
1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers,
particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward
sectors, followed by afternoon convection each day over interior and
western Puerto Rico. Fast-moving showers driven by strong winds
should reduce rainfall accumulation and therefore limit the flood
potential.

Around midweek, upper-level dynamics will become more favorable,
with improved ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft (around -9
degrees C). These conditions could support a few isolated
thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon, if
convection develops. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies will prevail, with passing showers mainly during
the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a
primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook indicates above-normal values at the
beginning of the period, followed by a decrease to near-average
levels for the remainder of the forecast. Daytime maximum
temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-80s across
lower elevations of the islands and from the mid-70s across higher
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Although pockets of moisture
embedded in the prevailing winds will result in some quick
passing SHRA/-SHRA. During the afternoon, between 28/16-23z, some
showers will develop across the interior and northwest. We do not
anticipate extensive impacts to terminals. Expect SE winds at 5-10
kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 28/13z at 10-20 kt with
gusts between 20 and 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

A broad surface high over the Atlantic will continue to tighten the
local pressure gradient and promote fresh to locally strong east to
east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain near the region,
another broad surface high will build over the western to central
Atlantic at the start of the next workweek, sustaining fresh to
strong winds. Expect E–ESE winds to back slightly to the east-
northeast by midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough
seas across the regional waters through the weekend and into early
next week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore
waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise
caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026

Nearshore buoys have already shown decreased wave heights early this
morning, which has resulted in somewhat lower breaking wave action
along local beaches. However, breezy to windy winds will create
favorable conditions for the development of rip currents across
the region, prevailing through the weekend and early next week.

Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents will persist for most
of the local beaches in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone,
particularly along expose beaches.

Looking ahead, another northerly swell will likely arrive by midweek
next week, potentially resulting in hazardous beach conditions once
again.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
408 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions are expected across Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands through much of the week, especially
late week. Unsecured items could blow around.

* Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal today and
Monday. More typical March temperatures return by midweek as
stronger northeasterly winds develop.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected
across most local beaches through much of the week, especially
late in the week as winds and seas increase, and the risk will
become high. Avoid swimming at unguarded beaches.

* Hazardous marine conditions are expected across the Offshore
Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as well as in local passages.
Fresh to strong winds will produce choppy to rough seas.
Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous
conditions.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Overnight, the breezy southeast winds brought a pocket of
moisture, with clouds and showers across PR. Although we did not
observe flooding problems, showery weather was observed.
Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands observed mainly calm weather,
with most of the rain activity over local waters. While writing
this discussion, we observed temperatures in the upper 70s across
the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or low-70s along the coast, and
in the mid-60s and even cooler across the higher elevations and
valleys. Weather Flow stations reported winds were mainly from the
east-southeast at 10 to 25 mph near some stations across the
USVI, east and south PR, including Culebra.

The Azores High will influence our local weather pattern, leading
to breezy to occasionally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few
days. A more east-northeasterly wind flow will return around
Tuesday. Still, weather models suggest that winds at the 925 MB
level will be above normal, approximately in the 75th percentile
of local climatology for this month. While we can expect periods
of sunshine or mostly clear skies, these breezy winds will also
bring in pockets of moisture daily, resulting in quick-moving
showers, particularly in windward areas. By the afternoon, due to
the southeast wind flow, we may see showers developing in the
northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico and downwind of the US Virgin
Islands in the form of streamers, and more to the west-southwest
on Tuesday as winds tend to become more east to northeast.
Consequently, we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain, which could lead to water accumulation in various parts of
the islands. NBM suggests more frequent showers on Monday with the
arrival of a surge of moisture.

Model guidance indicates that temperatures today and Monday are
expected to be near or slightly above normal, as shown by the 925
MB climatology. This trend suggests that both Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands may experience warmer-than-normal temperatures
during these days. Starting Tuesday, however, a shift to more
typical March temperatures is anticipated as stronger
northeasterly winds develop.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

By midweek, a series of high-pressure systems will remain over the
Atlantic, maintaining a prevailing northeasterly wind flow
throughout the forecast period. The pressure gradient across the
region will tighten, resulting in breezy to windy conditions.
Consequently, winds will be the primary weather concern during the
long-term period. Wind risk levels are expected to fluctuate from
limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the
islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as
items may be displaced or damaged by strong winds.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture content will
remain fragmented and variable on Wednesday and Thursday,
fluctuating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal
as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable
water values are forecast to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches.
This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially
during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas,
followed by limited afternoon convection over interior and western
Puerto Rico each day. Showers are expected to be fast-moving,
reducing the flood risk. From Thursday night into Friday, moisture
levels and upper-level dynamics are expected to become more
favorable as reflected in higher rain chances, potentially leading
to an increase in the frequency or intensity of showers Friday into
the weekend. Model guidance suggest PWAT values will become more
stable, around 1.6 inches each day. Additionally, moisture slightly
increase into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Although strong
winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential,
current data supports a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico
on Friday morning. Showers may result in ponding of water in areas
of poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail, with passing showers
primarily during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will
also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across
the islands.

The 925 mb temperature outlook suggests temperatures will be near
the average for this time of the year based on climatological data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. However, breezy winds will give
way to gusty conditions, and occasional pockets of showers will
move across the local flying area, affecting TAF sites. During the
afternoon, between 01/15-23z, some showers will develop across the
interior and northwest under the southeasterly wind flow. Expect
ESE winds at 5-15 kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 01/13z
at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and 30 kt, or even higher.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

The broad surface high across most of the Atlantic will continue to
tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally
strong east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain in place,
another surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic
from Monday into midweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds. Expect
winds to become east-northeasterly by midweek. These conditions will
maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through much
of the week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore
waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise
caution across all waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026

Breezy conditions will persist through much of the week. The
breezy to locally windy conditions, resulting in choppy to rough
seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents.
Overall, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected across much
of the local beaches in PR and the USVI. Thus, life-threatening
rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties,
and reef channels.

Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trades and a
northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate
coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous
rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches
from the middle of the week onward.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

* Breezy to windy conditions are expected across the islands for
much of this week, especially midweek towards the weekend.
Unsecured items could blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds producing choppy to rough seas, are expected
to continue across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as
well as in the local passages, where Small Craft Advisories are in
effect. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist to start the
workweek across most of the local beaches. Up to a high risk of
rip currents is forecast by midweek for northern eastern beaches
of the islands as a northeast to easterly swell arrives and
breezy to windy conditions persist.

* Winds will steer patches of moisture and showers along with
patches of drier air towards the islands. Low concentrations of
Saharan Dust will also filter into the region.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Variable to showery weather continued over the eastern half of
the region under up to breezy ESE steering flow. Since midnight,
radar estimated rainfall accumulations indicate 0.20 to 0.60 over
eastern Puerto Rico and Vieques, and minimal accumulations over
the USVI and Culebra. Stations over interior PR reported minimum
temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Stations over lower elevations
of the islands reported lows in the low to mid 70s, with the
exception of some lower elevation sectors of northern and
southwestern PR which reported lows in the upper 60s. Patchy fog
was also detected over some areas of PR.

A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote
breezy to locally windy ESE flow today as it tightens the local
pressure gradient. These winds will continue to steer patches of
moisture and drier air towards the islands today. Current model
guidance and satellite imagery suggests a patch of moisture (with
PWAT values up to around 1.70 in), showers and cloudiness moving
over the islands with a patch of drier air (with PWAT values of an
inch or less) over the Anegada Passage and moving towards the USVI
to start the morning. As the patch of drier air continues moving
over the islands, another patch of moisture (with PWAT values up
to around 1.60 in) will reach the eastern region this afternoon,
moving over the region late in the afternoon and tonight.
Afternoon showers are possible mainly over interior to W-NW Puerto
Rico. As the short term period progresses, breezy to windy
steering flow will gradually back to become more easterly late
tomorrow and more east-northeasterly late Wednesday as another
broad surface high builds over the western to central Atlantic
maintaining a tight pressure gradient. Breezy to windy conditions
will remain the dominant feature of the forecast.

Most available moisture will remain mainly below 850 mb, only at
time during the short term period rising to the mid levels as
patches of moisture move over the islands. A weak mid to upper
level trough will also move mainly north of the islands tomorrow.
However, 500mb temperatures are forecast to remain relatively
warm, limiting vertical shower development. Under the above
mentioned steering flow, intervals of patches of moisture and
drier air will continue to move over the islands tomorrow,
Tuesday, prompting a similar weather pattern as showers and
cloudiness are steered towards the region, and afternoon showers
are possible over interior to W-NW PR. Current model guidance
suggests a more broad patch of moisture (with PWAT values near
1.70 inches) affecting the region on Wednesday under the more E to
ENE steering flow. Low concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast
to continue over the region today and tomorrow, gradually
decreasing tomorrow night and Wednesday. 925 mb temperatures are
forecast at normal to above normal values today and tomorrow,
becoming more normal on Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Over the long term, a strong high-pressure system will develop over
the western Atlantic, then shift and become anchored in the north-
central Atlantic. This will maintain a prevailing northeasterly wind
flow and a tight pressure gradient throughout the forecast period.
As a result, breezy to windy conditions will be a primary hazard,
with wind risk levels fluctuating between limited and elevated,
particularly along the coastal areas of the islands. Residents are
advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as strong winds may
displace or damage them. Also, windy conditions will lead to choppy
to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents.

The latest model guidance indicates that moisture levels will remain
fragmented and variable on Thursday, fluctuating between near-
seasonal and slightly above-normal values based on climatological
data, as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow.
Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.30 and
1.65 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers,
especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward
areas, followed by afternoon convection over the interior and
western Puerto Rico each day. By Friday, moisture levels are
expected to stabilize as moisture moves in from the northeast,
potentially increasing the frequency or intensity of showers.
Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce
flood potential, current data suggests a limited flood threat for
eastern Puerto Rico in the mornings and for western Puerto Rico in
the afternoons. Showers may lead to ponding in areas with poor
drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies are expected, with passing showers primarily occurring
during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also
remain the primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the
islands.

The temperature outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the
duration of the period. Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to
range from the low to mid-80s at lower elevations and from the mid-
70s at higher elevations. Overnight lows are expected to range from
the 70s to the 60s, respectively.

In summary, breezy to windy conditions, variable moisture levels,
and frequent passing showers are expected throughout the forecast
period, with localized flooding risks in some areas. The main
hazards will be focused on winds, marine, and beach conditions,
including rough seas and hazardous coastal conditions. Residents and
visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue. However periods of fast
moving pockets of VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect the
terminals. These showers will be steered by breezy to locally
windy ESE flow, mainly at 12 to 18 kts with higher gusts.
Afternoon, between 02/16-23z, showers are possible mainly over
interior to W-NW. Winds decreasing after 01/23z to 5 to 12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

The broad surface high across most of the Atlantic will continue to
tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally
strong east-southeast winds. Another surface high will build over
the western to central Atlantic from Monday into midweek, sustaining
fresh to strong winds. Expect winds to become east-northeasterly by
midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across
the regional waters through much of the week, especially across the
Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small
Craft Advisories and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution statements
are in effect.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Mar 2 2026

Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist throughout the week
result in choppy seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip
currents across all beaches of PR (except the west coast).
Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist
across much of the local beaches of the islands. Life-threatening
rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties,
and reef channels.

Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trade winds and
a northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate
coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous
rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches of
the islands from midweek onwards.