Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

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[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue during the
forecast period, particularly across coastal areas of the
islands; unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Patches of moisture will filter across the islands from the E to
ENE at times during the forecast period, increasing fast-moving
shower frequency, while a trough will gradually approach the
region from the west this weekend into early next week.

* Expect choppy to rough seas across the offshore and nearshore
Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, and the local passages. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for those areas. Inexperienced mariners
should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the north- and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, St.
Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John through the weekend and into
early next week. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents
elsewhere.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Once again, variable weather conditions prevailed for most
windward sectors of the islands as breezy ENE flow steered fast-
moving showers and cloudiness towards the region. Satellite
derived precipitable water (PWAT) values over the region range
from 1.22 in over St. Croix to 1.45 in over northern Puerto Rico
as a patch of moisture moves mainly north of the region. Radar
estimated accumulations since midnight indicate up to 0.2 to 0.4
inches over north-central to eastern and eastern interior PR with
up to minimal accumulations over other areas of PR, Vieques,
Culebra and the USVI. Official and unofficial stations over
higher elevations of PR report lows in the low to mid 60s, with
satellite imagery detecting patchy fog in the area. Stations over
lower elevations of southwestern, southern, southeastern, and
northwestern interior PR again reported lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. Stations over lower elevations of the islands reported
minimum temperatures in the 70s. Some stations have also reported
reported max wind gusts ranging from 19 to 34 mph since midnight.

Breezy to windy conditions will continue as the dominant feature
of the forecast. A series of surface highs over the western to
central Atlantic will continue to promote breezy to windy ENE flow
as it tightens the local pressure gradient, becoming more E late
Sunday. This will promote a limited to elevated wind risk over the
islands, unsecured items could blow around. This breezy flow will
maintain 925 mb temperatures at normal values through the
weekend. Although the day will again start with fast-moving
showers over windward sectors, today will be the driest day of the
forecast period, as a patch of moisture with PWAT values reaching
below an inch and over the Anegada Passage, moves over the region
later this morning into late tonight. This will serve to limit
shower frequency over windward sectors later in the morning, and
afternoon convection over western PR. Another broad patch of
moisture, easterly disturbance, will move over the region late
tonight and into tomorrow, sustaining up to around 1.7 to 1.8 in
of PWAT (around 2 inches during afternoon convection over western
PR) above normal values. Above 1.5 inches of PWAT will remain on
Sunday as patches of moisture continue to filter into the region.
This above normal moisture will have increased instability for
most of the period as 500 mb temperatures will gradually cool as a
trough gradually approaches from the west later in the weekend.
An upper level jet will also provide ventilation over the area. A
limited flooding risk will remain during the period over eastern
PR each day and over western PR, tomorrow and Sunday, as fast-
moving trade wind showers continue to move over the region, mainly
over windward areas of the islands with the breezy to windy flow
pushing them further inland. Afternoon showers and possible
isolated t-storms are also forecast over western Puerto Rico,
particularly tomorrow and Sunday. Low concentrations of Saharan
Dust will continue to filter over the region, particularly today
and patchy fog is forecast over sectors of interior PR.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant
surface feature early in the period while gradually shifting
northeast. This pattern will maintain easterly to east-northeasterly
winds across the northeastern Caribbean. Moisture will be somewhat
fragmented early in the period, with precipitable water values near
typical to slightly below normal Monday into Tuesday. A deeper
moisture plume is expected to arrive Tuesday night and persist
through Thursday before drier air begins filtering back into the
region Thursday night. Aloft, a trough extending from near Jamaica
toward eastern Cuba early in the period will gradually weaken and
become more elongated while lingering near Hispaniola. At the same
time, an upper-level jet will remain positioned over or near the
forecast area, providing periods of divergence aloft and slightly
cooler temperatures that will promote ventilation across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds are expected to gradually weaken
Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes, though
another high pressure system building over the western Atlantic late
Thursday may signal the start of another period of strengthening
winds.

From a hazards perspective, breezy to locally windy conditions will
remain the primary concern early in the period, particularly Monday
through Tuesday. Winds are expected to ease somewhat by midweek
before potentially increasing again late Thursday. Rainfall will
remain a secondary concern, mainly from passing trade wind showers
affecting windward areas overnight and during the morning hours,
followed by locally driven afternoon showers across interior and
western Puerto Rico. As moisture increases Tuesday night through
Thursday and upper-level conditions remain somewhat favorable,
showers may become more numerous with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms. Periods of moderate rainfall could lead to brief
ponding of water in poor drainage areas, although the overall
flooding risk currently appears limited.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue, with brief MVFR
conditions. Breezy to locally windy ENE flow, mainly at 15 to 25
kts with higher gusts at 20 to 30 kts. Periods of fast moving
trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ,
with some affecting TJPS. After a lull this afternoon VCSH/-SHRA
frequency will increase once again after around 07/03Z for the
terminals. Winds decreasing after 05/23z to 5 to 15 kts with
higher gusts and higher near VCSH/-SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will promote
fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds, resulting in
choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and local Caribbean
passages. Therefore, hazardous marine conditions will prevail
through at least early next week. An upper level-trough will
increase the chance of thunderstorm formation late in the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 511 AM AST Fri Mar 6 2026

Hazardous beach conditions continue across the islands due to
strengthening winds producing breezy to windy conditions and a trade-
wind swell spreading across the local waters and passages. The
latest local buoy observations indicate significant wave heights
between 4 and 6 feet with periods of 8 to 12 seconds,
particularly at nearshore buoys around Vieques, San Juan, and
Rincon. Given the current marine conditions, a Rip Current
Statement remains in effect for north- and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St.
John through at least Sunday due to life- threatening rip currents
possible along the surf zone. Residents and visitors should
continue monitoring conditions and heed the advice of the beach
flag system, patrol flags, and posted signs. Although model
guidance suggests the swell may gradually diminish by late tonight,
hazardous conditions will likely persist through the weekend and
into early next week.

For the remaining beaches, a moderate rip current risk will continue
over the next several days. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as
life-threatening rip currents can still occur in the surf zone.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
Rico and the USVI through at least the middle of next week;
unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas and
high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft
Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through
at least early next week.

* Patches of moisture will filter across the islands from the E to
ENE at times during the forecast period, increasing fast-moving
shower frequency.

* A wet and unstable weather pattern may promote daily showers and
thunderstorm development across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through much of the upcoming workweek.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

Unsettled weather conditions prevailed overnight across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands as an atmospheric disturbance moved
through the northeastern Caribbean. With precipitable water (PWAT)
values exceeding 1.70 inches, this system brought in very moist,
humid air, triggering scattered showers across portions of eastern
and northern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Because these showers are moving relatively quickly due to
breezy conditions, Doppler radar has observed only minimal rainfall
accumulations. Overnight lows remained in the mid-to-upper 70s
across lower elevations and the mid-to-upper 60s in higher terrain.
Winds have prevailed from the east at 10 to 12 knots, with higher
gusts occurring near the heaviest showers.

As the disturbance continues to move across the islands today, it
will maintain high moisture levels and promote wet conditions
through midday. The anticipated rainfall could lead to ponding of
water in roads and poor drainage areas. By the afternoon, the
disturbance will shift over the Mona Passage, allowing relatively
drier air to filter into the region and causing PWAT values to
decrease. However, the combination of lingering moisture, daytime
heating, and local effects may still trigger shower activity and
isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico. Instability
aloft—supported by 500 mb temperatures between -9 and -10°C will
further enhance the potential for these thunderstorms.

From Sunday onward, conditions will gradually improve and return to
seasonal conditions as a strong surface high over the central
Atlantic dominates the local weather pattern. This high will
maintain a tight pressure gradient, resulting in breezy to windy
easterly flow through midweek. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with
higher gusts will continue, with higher gusts up to 30 mph.
Therefore, posing a limited to locally elevated wind risk where
unsecured items could be blown around. Temperatures at the 925 mb
level are expected to remain seasonal throughout the period. Highs
will range from the mid-80s across lower elevations to the upper 70s
and low 80s in the higher elevations.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

An upper-level trough is expected to remain near the northeastern
Caribbean through much of the upcoming workweek, with a
persistent jet aloft supporting a more unstable atmospheric
profile than typically observed in early March. Model guidance
suggests that 500 mb temperatures will fall below climatological
values, while mid-level lapse rates remain near or slightly above
normal. At the same time, deep-layer moisture is forecast to
gradually increase, with precipitable water values generally
ranging from 1.4 to 1.75 inches, especially on Thursday and
Friday. These conditions will weaken the trade wind inversion and
support deeper convective development across the region.

At the surface, building high pressure across the Atlantic will
promote breezy to locally windy east-to-northeast winds through
Thursday, gradually easing late in the week. Embedded moisture
patches moving within this flow will result in passing showers
across windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
during the nighttime and morning hours, followed by locally driven
convection across interior and western Puerto Rico each
afternoon.

If this scenario materializes, residents and visitors across
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can expect occasional breezy
to locally windy conditions, along with periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall. These showers could result in ponding of
water on roadways and in poorly drained areas, as well as
localized urban and small-stream flooding. Additionally, isolated
thunderstorms may produce lightning and brief periods of gusty
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites during the
forecast period. An atmospheric disturbance will be moving across
the area promoting SHRA and VCTS across TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru
07/22-23Z. VCSH possible over TJPS/TJBQ aft 07/14Z thru 07/23Z.
E winds at 10 kt or less thru 07/14z. Increasing btwn 15-20 kt
with gusts higher than 25 kt, and sea breeze variations aft
07/13-14Z thru 07/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

A series of high-pressure systems across the Atlantic will
maintain fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds
throughout the forecast period, resulting in choppy to rough seas
across most regional waters and local passages. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through at least Sunday, as offshore
waters see seas reaching 8 feet and winds up to 25 knots, while
coastal waters can expect 7-foot seas and similar wind speeds.
Smaller vessels are strongly advised to avoid navigating in these
hazardous conditions. Additionally, shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to increase across local waters as an
easterly disturbance moves through the northeast Caribbean tonight
into Saturday morning.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will persist across the islands as
strengthening trade winds generate breezy conditions across
regional waters and passages. Consequently, a Rip Current
Statement remains in effect through Sunday for the northern and
eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor
conditions closely and strictly adhere to the advice of beach
patrols, flag systems, and posted signage. While a moderate risk
continues elsewhere for the next several days, all beachgoers
should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain
possible within the surf zone.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
306 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
Rico and the USVI through at least midweek. Unsecured and
outdoor objects may blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough
seas and a high risk of rip currents across the region. Small
Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect
through at least Tuesday evening.

* A wet and unstable weather pattern will increase shower activity
and the potential of isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands by the first half of the workweek
due to the influence of an upper-level trough.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

Scattered showers moved across portions of eastern and northern
Puerto Rico overnight, including the San Juan metropolitan area.
Doppler radar estimated rainfall accumulations between 0.10 and 0.30
inches across these regions. Brief showers also passed over the U.S.
Virgin Islands; however, most of this activity remained over the
local waters. Overnight minimum temperatures ranged from the low to
mid-70s across lower elevations and from the mid to upper 60s in
higher terrain. Winds prevailed from the east at 5 to 10 mph, with
occasional higher gusts.

At the surface, a strong high-pressure system will continue to
dominate through midweek. Its tight pressure gradient will maintain
fresh to locally strong easterly winds throughout the period. In the
mid-levels, temperatures at 500 mb will remain between -8°C and -
10°C, supporting instability. This pattern, combined with the
arrival of low-level moisture patches, will sustain a showery
weather pattern. Expect passing showers to affect portions of
eastern and northern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the morning, followed by afternoon showers
across the interior and western Puerto Rico. Precipitable water
(PWAT) values will remain near or slightly above normal, around 1.50
inches, though pockets of drier air will filter in between moisture
patches. The flooding risk remains limited; however, ponding of
water on roads and in areas with poor drainage is possible.

From Tuesday onward, an upper-level trough extending from Jamaica
and eastern Cuba, and extending toward Hispaniola will linger over
the area through at least Thursday. A persistent jet aloft will
support a more unstable atmospheric profile than is typical for this
time of year. Temperatures at the 925 mb level are expected to
remain seasonal. Highs will range from the mid-80s across lower
elevations to the upper 70s and low 80s in the higher elevations
each day.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

At the surface, a broad high pressure system over the central
Atlantic extending into the Caribbean will maintain moderate
easterly winds across the region. Under this pattern, abundant
patches of precipitable water with values ranging between 1.5 and
1.7 inches will continue to move across the area. At the upper
levels, somewhat unfavorable weather conditions will persist with
the presence of an upper-level jet of over 100 knots, enhancing
vertical development and unstable conditions aloft. According to
model guidance, 500 mb temperatures will range between -8 and -9
degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, from Wednesday into
Thursday weather conditions will favor a showery pattern with good
chances for showers. However, since surface conditions will be
mostly driven by windy conditions, showers are not expected to
produce significant rainfall accumulations. On Wednesday, surface
winds will remain from the east; therefore, the focus of the showers
will remain across eastern sections and the western interior of
Puerto Rico. By Thursday, surface conditions will change slightly as
winds at the 0–3 km layer become more southeasterly due to the
interaction between the surface high pressure and a pre-frontal
trough associated with a frontal boundary exiting the eastern coast
of the United States.

From Friday through Sunday, mostly similar weather conditions will
persist under the influence of a broad surface high pressure system
over the central Atlantic, which will be reinforced as a frontal
boundary pushes eastward and another high pressure system builds
over the western Atlantic. Under this pattern, moderate easterly
winds will continue to prevail across the region, allowing patches
of moisture with precipitable water values slightly above
climatological normals to move across the islands. At the upper
levels, a mainly zonal flow will remain in place, generally
supporting fairly stable weather conditions across the northeastern
Caribbean. Given these expected conditions, the forecast calls for a
typical trade wind pattern with periods of passing showers moving
across the windward sections during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by isolated to scattered showers developing across interior
and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon due to
local effects and daytime heating. However, rainfall accumulations
are expected to remain limited overall due to brisk winds, which
promote faster-moving showers and prevent prolonged rainfall over
any particular area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail thru the period across all TAF
sites. SHRA will continue to move into the the islands today, with
VCSH affecting the PR & USVI terminals thru 08/14Z. VCSH over
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST aft 08/14Z through 08/22-3Z. E winds btwn 15-20 kt
with gusts higher than 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft
08/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

Fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds will persist
throughout the forecast period, maintaining choppy to rough seas
across regional waters and local passages. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through at least Tuesday as offshore conditions
reach sustained winds of 25 knots and seas up to 8 feet. While a
gradual improvement is expected across the region early next week,
operators of smaller vessels are strongly urged to avoid navigating
in these hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 252 AM AST Sun Mar 8 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will persist across the region,
maintaining a High Rip Current Risk through Monday for the northern
and eastern shorelines of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor
updates closely and strictly adhere to the guidance of beach
patrols, flag systems, and posted safety signage. While a moderate
risk continues elsewhere over the next several days, all beachgoers
should remain vigilant, as life-threatening rip currents remain
possible within the surf zone. A moderate risk is then expected to
prevail across most shorelines from Tuesday onward.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
317 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least Wednesday.
Unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough
seas and a high risk of rip currents across the region. Small
Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect
through late Tuesday evening.

* Frequent passing trade wind showers are expected to move over
the region for the next few days as patches of moisture
continues to move into the area.

* By Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms activity will increase,
elevating the flooding and lightning potential over Western
Puerto Rico in the afternoon due to the influence of a mid-to-
upper level trough near the area.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

Overnight, bands of showers fueled by a patch of moisture dragged by
the trades moved across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra,
and the eastern and southeastern coasts of Puerto Rico. Doppler
radar estimated rainfall accumulations between 0.10 and 0.80 inches,
with the highest totals concentrated over the El Yunque Rainforest,
particularly along the mountain slopes of Naguabo and Ceiba. Across
the U.S. Virgin Islands, accumulations remained below 0.10 inches.
Overnight lows ranged from the low to mid-70s in lower elevations to
the mid and upper 60s across higher terrain. Winds prevailed from
the east at 5 to 15 mph, though the Cyril E. King Airport in St.
Thomas recorded a maximum sustained wind of 23 mph and a gust of 38
mph at approximately 2:15 AM AST during a passing shower.

Weather conditions are expected to remain very similar as in recent
days as a surface high pressure continues to dominate the central
Atlantic. This system will maintain a tight pressure gradient,
promoting fresh to strong easterly winds across the region. By late
Tuesday into Wednesday, as the high migrates toward the eastern
Atlantic, winds will shift more east-northeasterly and gradually
diminish through the end of the workweek.

In the mid-to-upper levels, a trough extending from Jamaica and
eastern Cuba will drift toward Hispaniola by Tuesday through
Wednesday, weakening by Thursday as it moves eastward. Over the
next few days, the influence of this feature, combined with a
persistent upper-level jet and an increase in low-level moisture,
will support instability and periods of enhanced shower activity
and locally heavy rainfall. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will
be near or slightly above seasonal normals (1.5 to 1.75 inches).
Meanwhile, the 500 mb temperatures will remain cool, ranging from
-8°C to -10°C, further supporting an unstable environment.
Residents and visitors should expect morning showers across
eastern and northern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon development over interior
and western Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

A trough in the mid and upper level will allow for temperatures to
cool down at the mid levels by Thursday. This, along with moderate
moisture content at the lower levels, will result in increasing
showers along eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the
day. However, the heaviest activity is expected for the interior and
west in the afternoon hours. Urban and small stream flooding will be
likely, and there is a medium chance of experiencing thunderstorms
as well. From Friday and into the weekend, strong surface high
pressure centered over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean will steer
the winds from the east-southeast. Speeds will be moderate, around
15 knots for this time period. In the lower levels, patches of
moisture will be dragged in at times. Conditions aloft will not be
as favorable as on Thursday, but in general, the pattern will favor
passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
followed by stronger showers in the interior and west each
afternoon. While urban and small stream flooding could occur in
some areas, the most likely scenario is that the showers will lead
to ponding of water in roadways, as well as water surges in creeks
and small rivers. Also, with southeast winds, temperatures will warm
up a little, with highs mostly in the mid and upper 80s for coastal
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conds expected across all TAF sites thru the period. Passing
SHRA will result in VCSH at TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJPS thru 09/14Z. By mid-
morning into the afternoon hours SHRA development will result in -RA
at TJBQ/TJSJ/TJPS thru 09/22-23Z. E winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts
higher than 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft 09/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

A broad surface high-pressure system extending across the Central
Atlantic will continue to support widespread moderate to fresh trade
winds across the region, resulting in rough seas in local waters.
Recent buoy observations and global model guidance suggest a similar
pattern will persist from Monday into midweek, with wind-driven seas
up to 7 feet and steady easterly winds up to 20 knots, occasionally
producing gusty winds and passing moisture patches. As a result, the
Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for most of the local
waters. Conditions are expected to gradually improve across the
nearshore waters early in the week; however, choppy conditions will
likely persist across the offshore waters. Small craft operators are
urged to exercise caution and check the latest marine forecasts
before venturing into the local waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Mar 9 2026

A broad surface high-pressure system over the Central Atlantic,
extending into the Caribbean, will support a tightening of the
pressure gradient across the forecast area. As a result, wind-driven
seas will continue, with seas between 5 and 7 feet across the
Atlantic nearshore waters and the local passages. Therefore, a high
risk of rip currents is expected to persist today across the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water or exercise
extreme caution. Across the rest of the exposed beaches along the
west, south, and southeast coasts, the rip current risk will remain
moderate, with seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots, along
with occasional gusty conditions during the day. Improving coastal
conditions are forecast from Tuesday onward as wind-driven seas
gradually diminish across the nearshore coastal waters.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
331 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough
seas across the region through Wednesday.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Wednesday. Unsecured
and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Frequent passing trade wind showers are expected to move over
the region today, maintaining a limited flooding threat.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing trade wind
showers will move at times, with a drying trend expected by the
end of the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

Overnight, scattered showers moved across the northern and eastern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, leaving minimal rainfall accumulations. Low temperatures
remained in the low to mid-70s across lower elevations and reached
the mid-60s in the mountains. Winds prevailed from the east at 5 to
10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph, particularly over the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Vieques.

Today, weather conditions will remain similar to previous days, with
frequent passing showers across the region during the morning,
followed by afternoon showers over the interior and western portions
of Puerto Rico. A surface high-pressure system migrating from the
central to the eastern Atlantic will gradually weaken the pressure
gradient over the next few days. Consequently, a decrease in wind
speed is expected from Wednesday through the end of the period. At
the upper levels, a deepening trough will enhance instability aloft
before gradually weakening on Thursday as it moves eastward.

Regarding moisture, a drier air patch is expected to move across the
islands today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values reaching up to
1.40 inches. However, wetter conditions will return by early
Wednesday as another moisture patch reaches the region, increasing
PWAT values to 1.70 inches. The 500 mb temperatures will remain cool
through Thursday, ranging from -9°C to -11°C, further supporting the
potential for a few thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures will
persist as 925 mb levels remain within normal climatological values.
Highs will stay in the mid-80s across lower elevations and range
from the upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

Unstable weather conditions will persist across the local islands
for the first part of the long-term forecast. At the upper levels, a
strong jet stream exceeding 100 mph will continue to generate
divergence aloft, resulting in favorable conditions for vertical
development of showers and thunderstorms. Combined with this upper-
level feature, recent model guidance suggests decent amounts of
moisture in the lower levels, with precipitable water values
slightly reaching climatological normals of 1.20 to 1.50 inches.
This pattern will drive the appropriate conditions for afternoon
convection, especially across the interior and northeastern
sections, as well as the southwest quadrant due to a wind shift more
toward the east-northeast. From Saturday onward, a broad surface
high pressure will shift further east into the western Atlantic,
reducing the pressure gradient and allowing the islands to
experience moderate easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusty
conditions near the coastal areas and in the vicinity of showers.
For much of Saturday, slightly drier air will dominate, limiting
shower chances across the region. However, on Sunday, increased
moisture from the east will filter into the region, enhancing
convective chances once again. As a result, Saturday looks to be the
day with the least rainfall potential, while Sunday shapes up as the
wettest day of the weekend. Upper-level instability will persist
through Saturday into Sunday, continuing to support shower and
thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours.

For Monday into Tuesday, stable conditions will dominate at the
upper levels, characterized by a mostly zonal flow and warmer
temperatures at 500 mb, effectively suppressing deep convective
development across the region. The lack of upper-level support,
combined with a more stable atmospheric profile, will limit the
vertical development of showers throughout the day. As a result,
mostly sunny skies are expected across coastal and nearshore areas,
with good periods of sunshine throughout the day. Although the
overall pattern will remain stable, the afternoon diurnal heating
peak will still be sufficient to trigger isolated convective showers
across the interior sections. Rainfall amounts associated with these
afternoon showers are expected to remain light to moderate, with no
significant flooding concerns anticipated at this time. Temperatures
will trend warmer under the influence of a stable, mostly sunny
pattern, with coastal highs expected to reach the upper 80s to near
90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail across all TAF sites during the
forecast period. Quick passing trade wind SHRA may cause brief
-RA/VCSH periods across all terminals, but particularly at
TIST/TISX/TJSJ thru 10/22-23Z. E winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft 10/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

Seas will remain up to 7 feet across the offshore local waters due
to steady moderate to fresh easterly winds resulting from a broad
surface high-pressure system extending across the Central Atlantic.
Therefore, Small craft advisories will remain in effect for all the
exposed waters and local passages until tonight. In nearshore and
coastal waters, seas will remain 5 to 6 feet, resulting in choppy
marine conditions. Surface 2winds will remain from the east
between 15-20 knots with gusty winds. Small craft operators are
urged to exercise caution and check the latest marine forecasts
before venturing into the local waters. Improving marine
conditions are forecast from Wednesday into the second part of the
workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

No changes in the surface pattern. A broad surface high pressure
will continue to result in moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
across the region. As a result, wind-driven seas are forecast for
most of the offshore Atlantic waters, with seas up to 7 feet. Along
the coastal areas, choppy seas are expected, ranging between 5 to 6
feet and winds up to 20 knots, with gusty conditions during the day
due to temperature variations. Therefore, a moderate risk of rip
currents is expected to prevail across all exposed coastlines today
through the rest of the week, including the northern, western,
southern, and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as
Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers are urged to
exercise caution and remain alert to changing surf conditions.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
331 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

* Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough
seas across the region through Wednesday.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Wednesday. Unsecured
and outdoor objects may blow around.

* Frequent passing trade wind showers are expected to move over
the region today, maintaining a limited flooding threat.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, quick passing trade wind
showers will move at times, with a drying trend expected by the
end of the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

Overnight, scattered showers moved across the northern and eastern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, leaving minimal rainfall accumulations. Low temperatures
remained in the low to mid-70s across lower elevations and reached
the mid-60s in the mountains. Winds prevailed from the east at 5 to
10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph, particularly over the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Vieques.

Today, weather conditions will remain similar to previous days, with
frequent passing showers across the region during the morning,
followed by afternoon showers over the interior and western portions
of Puerto Rico. A surface high-pressure system migrating from the
central to the eastern Atlantic will gradually weaken the pressure
gradient over the next few days. Consequently, a decrease in wind
speed is expected from Wednesday through the end of the period. At
the upper levels, a deepening trough will enhance instability aloft
before gradually weakening on Thursday as it moves eastward.

Regarding moisture, a drier air patch is expected to move across the
islands today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values reaching up to
1.40 inches. However, wetter conditions will return by early
Wednesday as another moisture patch reaches the region, increasing
PWAT values to 1.70 inches. The 500 mb temperatures will remain cool
through Thursday, ranging from -9°C to -11°C, further supporting the
potential for a few thunderstorms. Seasonal temperatures will
persist as 925 mb levels remain within normal climatological values.
Highs will stay in the mid-80s across lower elevations and range
from the upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

Unstable weather conditions will persist across the local islands
for the first part of the long-term forecast. At the upper levels, a
strong jet stream exceeding 100 mph will continue to generate
divergence aloft, resulting in favorable conditions for vertical
development of showers and thunderstorms. Combined with this upper-
level feature, recent model guidance suggests decent amounts of
moisture in the lower levels, with precipitable water values
slightly reaching climatological normals of 1.20 to 1.50 inches.
This pattern will drive the appropriate conditions for afternoon
convection, especially across the interior and northeastern
sections, as well as the southwest quadrant due to a wind shift more
toward the east-northeast. From Saturday onward, a broad surface
high pressure will shift further east into the western Atlantic,
reducing the pressure gradient and allowing the islands to
experience moderate easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with gusty
conditions near the coastal areas and in the vicinity of showers.
For much of Saturday, slightly drier air will dominate, limiting
shower chances across the region. However, on Sunday, increased
moisture from the east will filter into the region, enhancing
convective chances once again. As a result, Saturday looks to be the
day with the least rainfall potential, while Sunday shapes up as the
wettest day of the weekend. Upper-level instability will persist
through Saturday into Sunday, continuing to support shower and
thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours.

For Monday into Tuesday, stable conditions will dominate at the
upper levels, characterized by a mostly zonal flow and warmer
temperatures at 500 mb, effectively suppressing deep convective
development across the region. The lack of upper-level support,
combined with a more stable atmospheric profile, will limit the
vertical development of showers throughout the day. As a result,
mostly sunny skies are expected across coastal and nearshore areas,
with good periods of sunshine throughout the day. Although the
overall pattern will remain stable, the afternoon diurnal heating
peak will still be sufficient to trigger isolated convective showers
across the interior sections. Rainfall amounts associated with these
afternoon showers are expected to remain light to moderate, with no
significant flooding concerns anticipated at this time. Temperatures
will trend warmer under the influence of a stable, mostly sunny
pattern, with coastal highs expected to reach the upper 80s to near
90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail across all TAF sites during the
forecast period. Quick passing trade wind SHRA may cause brief
-RA/VCSH periods across all terminals, but particularly at
TIST/TISX/TJSJ thru 10/22-23Z. E winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft 10/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

Seas will remain up to 7 feet across the offshore local waters due
to steady moderate to fresh easterly winds resulting from a broad
surface high-pressure system extending across the Central Atlantic.
Therefore, Small craft advisories will remain in effect for all the
exposed waters and local passages until tonight. In nearshore and
coastal waters, seas will remain 5 to 6 feet, resulting in choppy
marine conditions. Surface 2winds will remain from the east
between 15-20 knots with gusty winds. Small craft operators are
urged to exercise caution and check the latest marine forecasts
before venturing into the local waters. Improving marine
conditions are forecast from Wednesday into the second part of the
workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 315 AM AST Tue Mar 10 2026

No changes in the surface pattern. A broad surface high pressure
will continue to result in moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
across the region. As a result, wind-driven seas are forecast for
most of the offshore Atlantic waters, with seas up to 7 feet. Along
the coastal areas, choppy seas are expected, ranging between 5 to 6
feet and winds up to 20 knots, with gusty conditions during the day
due to temperature variations. Therefore, a moderate risk of rip
currents is expected to prevail across all exposed coastlines today
through the rest of the week, including the northern, western,
southern, and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as
Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers are urged to
exercise caution and remain alert to changing surf conditions.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
155 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

* Ponding of water is anticipated with the expected increase
shower activity across Puerto Rico.

* Slightly drier trend by late Friday into Saturday, but showers
may develop during the afternoon hours.

* Lighter winds are expected through early Saturday, increasing
on Sunday, leading hazardous marine and beach conditions.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing trade wind
showers will continue, with a drying trend expected by late Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

Overnight conditions were generally calm, with passing showers
affecting portions of northern to northeastern Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands under partly cloudy skies.
Rainfall accumulations were mostly light, generally between 0.10
and 0.30 inches, with localized accumulations reaching 0.50 inches
over the Caribbean waters. Winds remained light and variable,
increasing slightly in the heaviest shower activity. Temperatures
stayed in the upper 60s to mid-70s along coastal areas and from
the low to upper 60s across interior and mountainous areas.

Today into Friday will be the wettest days of the short-term period,
before conditions gradually trend drier late Friday into the
start of the weekend. The latest model guidance indicates
precipitable water values between 1.50 and 1.75 inches through
Friday, decreasing to around 1.20 inches by Saturday, which is
near normal values for this time of year. The causes of this wet
pattern will be an upper-level trough and an induced low-level
trough, which will enhance shower activity and produce periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. The primary hazard will be urban and
small-stream flooding, especially today, as weak steering winds
will allow showers to move slowly, particularly across mountainous
areas. Gusty winds may accompany the strongest activity.
Meanwhile, 500 mb temperatures around −10 °C would typically
support some lightning potential; however, recent similar
conditions have produced little to no lightning activity, so the
probability of thunderstorms today remains low to near zero
despite the abundant atmospheric moisture.

By late Friday into Saturday, drier air and more stable conditions
will gradually spread across the region as precipitable water
values return closer to seasonal levels, as a high pressure
system build over the Atlantic. Nevertheless, trade wind showers
will support afternoon showers, mainly across western Puerto Rico,
as easterly winds will dominate the forecast area.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

A broad surface high will move into the western Atlantic and
continue building, promoting increased E to ESE winds. 925 mb wind
speeds will be above normal to briefly 2 standard deviations above
normal, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions to start the
next week. Unsecured items could blow around. A limited wind risk
will persist during the long term period with an elevated wind risk
possible on Sunday and Monday. Although an upper trough will move
northwest of the islands on Monday and an upper jet over the area
can provide ventilation, 500 mb temperatures will be warmer compared
to the short term period, at -7 to -6 degrees Celsius, while 700 to
500 mb lapse rates will be at below normal to low end normal values
for this time of the year. This will promote more stable conditions
and limit vertical shower development. However, the breezy to windy
E to ESE flow will steer showers and patches of moisture towards
windward sectors with diurnal heating promoting afternoon convective
showers over interior to northwestern PR, as well as lines of
showers towards the USVI, Vieques and Culebra to E and ESE PR.
Patches of moisture arriving towards the islands will maintain
precipitable water (PWAT) values around normal values (with some
variability related to the moist and dry patches), model guidance
suggests that the most broad moisture patch will arrive late Sunday
into Monday. 925 mb temperatures will remain at normal values but
under a general warming trend with less cloud cover and the E to ESE
flow. Patchy fog during the overnight hours at sectors of the
interior. Low concentrations of saharan dust will also be steered
over the region, particularly on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites. VCSH possible at all
terminals during the period. However, SHRA could cause periods of
MVFR condt mainly by 12/17Z at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS. E-NE winds btwn
10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and sea breeze variations aft
12/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

A weakening of the pressure gradient across the northeastern
Caribbean will result in lighter winds. Winds are expected to remain
gentle to moderate, with seas decreasing to between 3 and 5 feet,
resulting in improving marine conditions today and into the early
part of the weekend. However, winds are forecast to begin increasing
again around Saturday night into Sunday, leading to rough and choppy
seas and likely prompting Small Craft Advisory conditions from late
in the weekend into early next week, with seas building to around 6
to 8 feet.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

Today, winds are expected to subside, resulting in improved
conditions. However, the rip current risk will remain moderate along
north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St.
Croix, and low elsewhere. The same pattern will continue through
early Sunday.

The risk is forecast to increase to high around Sunday night into
early next week, along with breezy to windy conditions. Residents
and visitors are encouraged to monitor the forecast for any updates
or adjustments. For additional information and location-specific rip
current details, please visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM AST Thu Mar 12 2026

The risk for fire weather treats remains LOW today, as winds are
expected to become light to moderate and RH values are expected
increase due to the arrival of another patch of moisture across
the area. At this time an RFD will not be issued, but we
encourage partners to continue monitoring conditions in the coming
days.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
218 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 158 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

* Flooding in urban areas, on roads, and along small streams is
possible this morning over eastern PR and USVI and then this
afternoon across the interior and western Puerto Rico.

* A drier trend is expected by late Friday into Saturday,
although localized showers may still develop during the
afternoon hours due to local effects.

* Increasing winds are expected on Sunday into next week, leading
to hazardous marine and beach conditions.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing trade-wind
showers will continue, with a drying trend expected by late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 158 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

During the overnight hours, clear skies prevailed across western
Puerto Rico, while eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands observed partly cloudy skies as a patch of
moisture filtered across the region, increasing the frequency of
showers. Nevertheless, rainfall accumulations ranged from 0.10 to
0.30 by 2 AM. Temperatures along coastal areas ranged from the
upper 60s to the mid-70s, while interior and mountainous locations
cooled into the 60s, similar to previous nights. Winds remained
light and variable.

Today, an another surge of moisture will continue to move across
eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, producing periods of
showers. This increase in moisture, combined with daytime
heating, will promote the development of afternoon convection
across the interior and western Puerto Rico, with periods of
moderate rainfall, raising the potential for ponding of water on
roads and in poorly drained and urban areas. Late today into
Saturday, precipitable water values are forecast to decrease to
near or below the 25th percentile for this time of year,
accompanied by lower mid-level relative humidity and warming
temperatures at 500 mb level, resulting in a more stable
atmospheric profile and improving weather conditions as a drier
air mass prevails across the region. Therefore, expect mostly
sunny skies with only brief passing showers across windward areas,
mainly during the morning hours, mainly on Saturday. As the day
progresses on Saturday, easterly trade winds will strengthen as a
high- pressure system builds over the western Atlantic, promoting
breezy conditions.

On Sunday, precipitable water values are expected to return to
near-normal levels as another patch of moisture approaches the
region. However, instability is not anticipated. As a result,
typical trade-wind showers will affect eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by isolated afternoon activity across western Puerto
Rico. Overall rainfall accumulations are not expected to be
significant, as breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail,
and conditions will remain seasonable.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 158 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

A broad surface high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will
strengthen by early next week, tightening the pressure gradient
across the northeastern Caribbean and promoting a steady increase in
easterly to east-southeasterly low-level flow beginning Monday and
persisting through much of the workweek. Model guidance indicates
925 mb winds increasing well above climatological values, peaking
near or above two standard deviations above normal on Monday. As a
result, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected,
particularly across coastal areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques,
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where a limited to locally elevated
wind threat may develop and unsecured outdoor items could be blown
around or damaged. Although the pressure gradient is expected to
relax slightly after Monday, winds will likely remain above normal
through the remainder of the forecast period.

Mid-level conditions will remain generally stable through the
forecast period. Model guidance continues to show 700–500 mb lapse
rates below normal to near the lower end of climatological values,
while 500 mb temperatures remain near climatological normals.
Although a polar trough and its associated frontal boundary are
forecast to move off the eastern seaboard early next week, and an
upper-level trough may develop northeast of the forecast area toward
the end of the period, the local area will remain largely removed
from the strongest dynamical forcing. As a result, most of the
region will continue to experience marginally stable conditions,
limiting deep convective development and favoring mainly shallow
trade wind showers. Relative humidity values in the mid-levels will
also remain modest, further supporting a generally stable pattern.

Moisture levels will remain near climatological normals through most
of the period, with precipitable water generally fluctuating between
around 1.2 and 1.5 inches. Patches of shallow moisture embedded
within the trade wind flow will periodically move across the region,
resulting in brief passing showers across windward sectors,
particularly during the nighttime and morning hours across eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. During the afternoons,
diurnal heating combined with local effects may support the
development of isolated to scattered showers across interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico. However, the faster steering wind
flow will limit the residence time of showers and keep rainfall
accumulations generally low. Despite this, ponding of water on roads
and in poorly drained areas, along with brief reductions in
visibility, can still occur in areas experiencing the heaviest
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

All TAF sites should experience VFR conds will prevail. VCSH
possible at TJSJ, TIST, and TISX through 13/14Z. However, -SHRA
could cause periods of MVFR condt mainly by 14/17Z at
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS. Easterly winds btwn 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt and sea breeze variations aft 13/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

Under a weakening pressure gradient across the northeastern
Caribbean, winds will remain gentle to moderate from the east to
northeast with seas of 3 to 5 feet. However, a high pressure will
build across the northwestern Atlantic late Saturday into early next
week will tighten the local pressure gradient and promote increased
wind speeds. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected by tomorrow,
Saturday, night into early next week, and will result in rough and
choppy seas and overall deteriorated marine conditions. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be issued later on from late in the weekend
into early next week, with seas forecast to build to around 6 to 8
feet.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 158 AM AST Fri Mar 13 2026

Today, a moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone) will persist for northern
beaches of Puerto Rico (from Aguadilla to Fajardo), Culebra, and
northern and eastern beaches of St. Croix. Beachgoers should
continue to exercise caution. A low risk of rip currents will be
present across other exposed beaches of the islands. Even if the
risk is low, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the
vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

A similar pattern will persist through tomorrow, Saturday, night. On
Sunday the moderate risk will start to expand to other beaches as
breezy conditions start to develop, and by Monday onwards, a high
rip current risk will likely be in effect, along with breezy to
windy conditions. Beachgoers should continue monitoring the
forecast for any updates.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
206 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

* Mostly sunny conditions are expected today, although a few
localized showers may still filter over eastern PR and some
showers developing during the afternoon hours across western
Puerto Rico.

* Increasing winds are expected late today into next week,
leading to hazardous marine and beach conditions.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing trade-wind
showers will continue, with a drying trend expected throughout
the day.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Overnight conditions remained generally tranquil across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Skies were mostly clear, with only
isolated passing trade-wind showers affecting most waters and some
coastal areas. Temperatures remained in the upper 60s to mid 70s
along the coasts and in the 60s across higher terrains, while
winds were light and variable. No hazardous weather was observed.

Today is expected to be the driest and most stable day of the
short-term period, with high confidence in limited rainfall coverage.
The latest guidance indicates precipitable water values falling
to near the 25th percentile, accompanied by reduced mid-level
humidity and slightly warmer mid-level temperatures, a combination
that promotes a more stable atmospheric profile. Under this drier
air mass, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail. Only
brief, shallow trade-wind showers are expected across windward
sectors during the morning, with isolated afternoon development
over western Puerto Rico due to local effects. The probability of
measurable rainfall will remain low, and no flooding risk is
anticipated. Meanwhile, easterly trade winds will strengthen as a
high-pressure system builds over the western Atlantic, leading to
breezy conditions by afternoon. While no significant hazards
expected, occasional gusts may affect outdoor activities and
marine conditions as we head into Sunday.

On Sunday, a gradual increase in moisture is expected as another
patch of moisture moves into the region. Precipitable water values
are forecast to rise to around 1.50 inches or near to slightly
above normal values for this time of the year, which will support
a higher frequency of passing showers embedded in the trades.
Despite limited instability, periods of showers are likely across
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during overnight
and morning hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon
activity over western Puerto Rico. As rainfall coverage increases,
the flooding threat will rise to limited, meaning localized urban
and poor-drainage flooding will be possible, particularly where
showers repeatedly affect the same areas. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will persist, increasing the risk of minor impacts such
as blowing unsecured objects and choppy marine and coastal
conditions. Residents and visitors should monitor updates,
especially those planning outdoor or marine activities Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

A broad high pressure will be present over the central Atlantic to
start the long term period, and will result in breezy to windy E to
ESE winds. Wind speeds at 925 mb will be above normal to start the
period, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. Unsecured
items could blow around. Up to an elevated wind risk is forecast to
start the long term period for coastal areas. As low pressure
systems move into the western Atlantic and continue displacing the
broad high eastward, the pressure gradient will gradually relax over
our region during the second half of the week, a limited wind risk
is still forecast at least through Thursday. Winds will continue
mainly from the E to ESE through the period. Mid-level atmospheric
conditions are expected to remain generally stable throughout the
forecast period. Model guidance indicates that 700–500 mb lapse
rates will be below normal to low end normal values, with 500 mb
temperatures remaining near their climatological normals to slightly
above normal. While an upper-level trough may develop northeast of
the area during the period, its main instability will largely bypass
the local region. As a result, conditions will be marginally stable,
which will limit the development of deep convection and instead
favor shallow trade wind showers. Despite this, the breezy to windy
E to ESE flow will steer showers and shallow moisture patches toward
windward areas. Shallow moisture patches arriving over the islands
will keep precipitable water (PWAT) values around normal but with a
general drying trend, with some variability linked to the moist and
dry patches. This will result in passing showers across windward
areas, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across
eastern PR and the USVI. Diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and
local effects will fuel afternoon convective showers over the
interior to western and northwestern PR, as well as lines of showers
developing from the local islands. Although the fast steering flow
will limit rainfall accumulations, ponding of water is possible on
roads and in poorly drained areas. 925 mb temperatures will stay
near normal but will be on a general warming trend due to less cloud
cover and the E to ESE flow. Patchy fog is possible in interior
sectors of PR during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR condt across all TAF sites. VCSH possible at TJSJ, TIST, and
TJBQ through 14/14Z. After 14/17Z VCSH will affect TJBQ, TJSJ, and
TJBQ. E-NE winds btwn 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and sea
breeze variations aft 14/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

Today, surface high pressure building over the western and central
Atlantic will result in an increasing pressure gradient, leading to
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds that will strengthen
further from Sunday onward. These wind-driven seas will lead to
choppy to rough sea conditions across all exposed local waters from
Sunday into the upcoming workweek. From Monday through midweek,
fresh to strong easterly winds will make additional areas of the
regional waters hazardous, with seas building to 7 to 8 feet and
winds up to 25 knots with higher gusts. Small Craft Advisories are
currently in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada
Passage starting midday Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory will then
extend over the offshore Caribbean waters by Monday. However,
small boat operators should stay tuned for further updates, as
additional Small Craft Advisories may be issued.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 142 AM AST Sat Mar 14 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today across most of the
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands,
while a low risk persists for the southern coast. Although beach
conditions will remain generally manageable for experienced
swimmers, visitors are urged to exercise caution, particularly near
jetties, rocks, and other structures.

From Sunday and early next week, coastal conditions are expected to
deteriorate gradually. Strengthening easterly winds will generate
choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, increasing wave
action along exposed beaches. As a result, the risk of rip currents
is expected to increase to high along many northern and eastern
exposed beaches of the islands by Monday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
234 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

* Limited ponding of water on roadways and poorly drained areas is
anticipated today, particularly over eastern and western PR.

* Breezy to windy conditions from today into early next week will
create hazardous marine and coastal conditions across Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Small Craft Advisories and a
High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for many local waters
and beaches.

* Warmer temperatures are forecast by early next week with
limited rainfall potential.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

Overnight, partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Passing showers affected mainly eastern
and northern Puerto Rico, with radar-estimated rainfall totals
between 0.10 and 0.30 inches. Winds remained light and variable,
while temperatures stayed in the 70s across coastal areas and 60s
across higher elevations.

Today (Sunday), a trade-wind perturbation will move across the region,
leading to a gradual increase in wind speeds and moisture. This
pattern will promote periods of passing showers across windward
areas, particularly eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, during the early morning and afternoon hours. A limited
flooding risk is anticipated for today, meaning ponding of water
on roads and in poorly drained areas is possible. Rainfall amounts
are expected to remain light to moderate. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will develop, especially across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and coastal areas of Puerto Rico. By Sunday evening, a
drier air mass will move into the region, leading to a decrease in
shower activity overnight. This drier air mass will reduce the
overall flooding potential across the islands, though brief
passing showers may still occur Monday.

By Tuesday, a more typical seasonal pattern will prevail. Expect a
mix of sunshine and brief passing showers, mainly affecting
windward areas during the night and morning hours, followed by
isolated afternoon activity across western interior sections.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic
will dominate the regional pattern early in the period. This will
maintain easterly trade winds on Wednesday, gradually veering to
east-southeasterly and south-southeasterly by Saturday as the
pressure gradient relaxes with a frontal boundary approaching from
the northwest. A mid-level ridge will persist through Friday
before being displaced southeastward by a broad trough dipping
into the northern Caribbean late in the period. Moisture will
remain mostly shallow through midweek, generally below 700 mb,
briefly extending near 650 mb Thursday afternoon into the night
before gradually deepening toward the weekend. As a result,
conditions will transition from relatively drier-than-normal on
Wednesday to more variable moisture Thursday and Friday, with a
gradual increase in shower activity by Saturday. Temperatures will
remain within typical seasonal ranges, with slightly warmer
afternoons locally and a gradual warming trend into the weekend
likely responding to the increasing southerly wind component.

Hazards through most of the period will be mainly wind-driven.
Breezy to occasionally windy conditions early in the period may
create an elevated wind risk across exposed and coastal areas and
will promote fast-moving trade wind showers across windward
sectors, particularly overnight and during the morning hours.
These showers may occasionally produce brief downpours but will
generally move quickly across the area. As winds weaken and
moisture deepens toward the weekend, hazards may gradually shift
toward a slightly higher risk of locally heavier showers, which
could increase the potential for excessive rainfall and localized
ponding in urban and poorly drained areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

All TAF sites should experience VFR condt. VCSH possible at TJSJ,
TIST, and TJBQ through 15/14Z. After 15/17Z VCSH will affect
TJBQ and TJSJ. E winds gradually increasing after 15/14Z btwn
13-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft
15/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

Surface high pressure building over the western and central Atlantic
will result in an increasing pressure gradient, leading to moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds that will gradually strengthen
today. These wind-driven seas will result in choppy to rough
conditions across all exposed local waters for the latter part of
the week. From Monday through midweek, fresh to strong easterly
winds will make additional areas of the regional waters hazardous,
with seas building to 7 to 9 feet and winds up to 25 knots and
higher gusts. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for the
offshore Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, starting Sunday
morning, with Advisories spreading to coastal areas and the Anegada
Passage by Sunday evening. Small craft operators should stay tuned
for further updates, as additional Small Craft Advisories may be
required.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

The beach forecast remains on track. As mentioned in the marine
section, strengthening winds today are expected to generate choppy
to rough seas across the regional waters, leading to breaking waves
around 6 feet and a high potential of rip currents along the surf
zone. As a result, a Rip Current Statement has been issued for
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Monday night. Residents
and visitors are urged to monitor conditions and heed the advice on
the flag systems. Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal
conditions and continue monitoring the latest updates, as hazardous
beach conditions will likely persist over the next few days, and an
extension of the Rip Current Statement may be required.

Although a moderate risk continues elsewhere, beachgoers should
exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible
along the surf zone. For additional information, please visit:
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026

The fire weather threat is LOW, but localized higher fire weather
conditions can not be ruled out today. Winds will gradually
become stronger but due to previous rains, RH values remain near
to above criteria. Regardless, we encourage partners to continue
monitoring conditions for any changes in the forecast later
today.