SIO: INVEST 94S

[Subtrop]

94S INVEST 260311 1200 8.7S 54.6E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

This one looks like it will be a formidable TC that may threat Madagascar.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3S
54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG AN ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEANCE ON THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

From Meteo-France:

The risk of a tropical storm forming is estimated to be low (10 to 30%) starting Friday the 13th, then moderate (30 to 60%) from Saturday, March 14th, until the beginning of next week. This system could impact Agaléga and Saint Brandon over the next 5 days, with an intensity expected to be moderate given the slow development of this disturbed area.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.3S 54.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF
SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BUT ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION. A 121416Z WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A MOSTLY
LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS),
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
DECREASED THE PROJECTED PEAK INTENSITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ENCROACHMENT OF A DRY
AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MODEST CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED ZONE 12-20252026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1003 hPa.

Position on March 13 at 10 a.m. local time: 8.7 South / 54.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1355 km to the NORTH sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1130 km to the East-Northeast sector

Movement: EAST-NORTHEAST, at 7 km/h.

System information:

- Over the past 24 hours, a low-pressure system has begun to organize northwest of Agalega (Mauritius). This Friday morning, this 12th system of the 2025-2026 season is located just under 300km from Agalega and is still relatively weak.

This weekend, as it moves southeast, this low-pressure system could temporarily intensify into a moderate tropical storm on Saturday before weakening on Sunday. It could dissipate north of the Mascarene Islands early next week.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED ZONE 12-20252026


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1004 hPa.

Position on March 14 at 10 a.m. local time: 11.3 South / 58.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1115 km to the NORTH-NORTHEAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 1480 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 24 km/h.

System information:

- The 12th system of the 2025-2026 season is currently located approximately 250 km southeast of Agalega in the disturbed zone stage. It is expected to continue moving southeast and then south, weakening before dissipating southeast of the Mascarene Islands early next week.

- This is the last bulletin for this system unless there is a re-intensification.