SPAC: NARELLE - Tropical Cyclone

[Subtrop]

96P INVEST 260314 1800 13.0S 160.5E SHEM 15 1009

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.3S 159.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 160119Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH A
SWATH OF ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
RANGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR 96P ARE FAVORABLE,
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE TIMELINE FOR CONSOLIDATION 24 HOURS EARLIER WHILE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION AND AI SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL
TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIAS EASTERN COASTLINE AS IT
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/2033683967778394227

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.3S 159.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 156.8E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161339Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALS 25-
30KTS WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF 96P
TAKING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND ITS DEVELOPMENT IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Details of Tropical Low 34U at 10:00 am AEST:

Intensity
Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location
within 55 kilometres of 12.3 degrees South 157.1 degrees East, estimated to be 890 kilometres east northeast of Willis Is and 1330 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown.

Movement
west at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 34U is developing in the northern Coral Sea and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone tonight. 34U is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. A severe impact is likely late in the week.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2033648314709594556

[cycloneye]

Looks like a mature cyclone in the making.

[sasha_B]

This one is coming together pretty quickly. There's something resembling an eye apparent on VIS imagery already, and both VIS and EIR make a pretty good case for a DT of 3.5 as of 0316/0500z (constraints on FT notwithstanding). I think 34U/"future Narelle" is going to be an interesting storm to track.

[Hurricane2022]

A Category 5 (AUS & SSHWS) is becoming likely now.

[cycloneye]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity
Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location
within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 156.3 degrees East, estimated to be 790 kilometres east northeast of Willis Island and 1240 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown.

Movement
west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) has developed into a tropical cyclone in the northern Coral Sea. Narelle is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. A severe impact is likely late in the week.

[cycloneye]

Peak at 115 kt from JTWC.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/2033957358645248179

[Sciencerocks]

Very likely going to go through IRC over the next 24-36 hours. Very strong convection and building core....