Texas Spring 2026

[Stratton23]

Ntxw its hard to get a normal summer lol, it seems every year we are always unfortunately setting new record highs because of some record strong death ridge that ends up setting up near texas, hopefully wetter conditions do turn out to be correct, I just dont think i could take another 90-120 days where temperatures are always near 100 every day , at least wetter conditions would cut back on the heat somewhat

[South Texas Storms]

Early April we should begin to see more precip chances as the MJO moves into more favorable phases and so look for another spike in severe weather potential then.

In the meantime the heat returns under a dry pattern for now.

Yeah we should start to feel our first impacts from the developing El Nino event in April and May. I think we have a decent chance of seeing near to above normal rainfall during this period.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw its hard to get a normal summer lol, it seems every year we are always unfortunately setting new record highs because of some record strong death ridge that ends up setting up near texas, hopefully wetter conditions do turn out to be correct, I just dont think i could take another 90-120 days where temperatures are always near 100 every day , at least wetter conditions would cut back on the heat somewhat

Hot and above normal/normal (metrics) are two different variables imo. I can deal with heat, but the persistent above normal and lack of near normal or below is the issue. Don't get me wrong, I wasn't saying we should be expecting a hot summer, I was saying I am hesitant on calling below normal summer because that hasn't truly happened in a long time (or any season, winter, spring, fall, summer etc). There's no reason we can't spend summer days 90-96 if the average is 95, instead it's weeks of 95-99, random example. We've had near normal with lower number of 100 days yes. We have not had a true below normal period with El Nino either since 2014, 12 years ago. I'd rather make the call of wetter and slightly above normal.

GFS is advertising a cold front next weekend, Euro not so much...rooting for the GFS to score on this one for some relief!

[bohaiboy]

Reed Timmer just posted on FB a big red bullseye for Central Texas, the first part of April. I'm not sure how to post pictures on S2K, but here is the link. Hope it is ok to post this. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=15 ... 9972968701

[Stratton23]

Ntxw I guess i just assumed maybe a below normal summer temperature wise because of above normal rain potentially producing rain cooled air keeping afternoon highs below normal, ill still take slightly above normal compared to well above normal, just no more long stretches of near 100 for weeks, its awful

[TomballEd]

Reed Timmer just posted on FB a big red bullseye for Central Texas, the first part of April. I'm not sure how to post pictures on S2K, but here is the link. Hope it is ok to post this. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=15 ... 9972968701

I don't think he can do that with any type of accuracy. The possible light at the end of the short term 15 day tunnel may be in site, ensembles shifting highest heights E of Texas with heights lowering to the W. Canadian ensembles are most happy. Probably what Timmer is basing this on but PhD or not, he still strikes me as something of a hype machine.

[Iceresistance]

Reed Timmer just posted on FB a big red bullseye for Central Texas, the first part of April. I'm not sure how to post pictures on S2K, but here is the link. Hope it is ok to post this. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=15 ... 9972968701

I will point out that CFS Supercell Composite is unreliable, especially at that range.

TomballEd did show the GEFS showing the ECR (East Coast Ridge), which is favorable for severe storms in our area.

[wxman22]

Models are agreeing more with a wet pattern change in April. I like the signal i am seeing on the ensembles also.

[gpsnowman]

Count me in on the moving thing. My daughter is about to graduate and move to college and then I am a free man . The whole marriage thing didn't work out so as long as my daughter is well., a move to a cooler climate is on the table. I'm a simple man so anywhere will work. First thoughts are Omaha, KC, northern Arkansas. The older I get the more summer heat gets to me, for health reasons. Been to the ambulance and hospital six times in the last thirty years because of heat. I'm done.

[Cpv17]

Models are agreeing more with a wet pattern change in April. I like the signal i am seeing on the ensembles also.

I was watching Herzog last night and saw he was forecasting 100’s in WF lol man that’s insane for this time of year.

[Brent]

Models are agreeing more with a wet pattern change in April. I like the signal i am seeing on the ensembles also.

I was watching Herzog last night and saw he was forecasting 100’s in WF lol man that’s insane for this time of year.

I've seen some talk of it west of OKC even I mean what the heck is going on

I mean it's getting harder to go on social media and act like this has happened before

[wxman22]

Models are agreeing more with a wet pattern change in April. I like the signal i am seeing on the ensembles also.

I was watching Herzog last night and saw he was forecasting 100’s in WF lol man that’s insane for this time of year.

I still find it crazy that this area can get so frigidly cold but also get extremely hot.We got down to 5F in January,and now the 100's are knocking at our door. The only saving grace so to speak is that the humidity is low here so it's usually a dry heat.The temperature extremes here are fascinating from a meteorological perspective.lol

NW Texas may be the hottest region in the state during the Summer outside of the Valley. But it's also one of the coldest regions of the state during the winter.

[DallasAg]

Models are agreeing more with a wet pattern change in April. I like the signal i am seeing on the ensembles also.

I was watching Herzog last night and saw he was forecasting 100’s in WF lol man that’s insane for this time of year.

I still find it crazy that this area can get so frigidly cold but also get extremely hot.We got down to 5F in January,and now the 100's are knocking at our door. The only saving grace so to speak is that the humidity is low here so it's usually a dry heat.The temperature extremes here are fascinating from a meteorological perspective.lol

NW Texas may be the hottest region in the state during the Summer outside of the Valley. But it's also one of the coldest regions of the state during the winter.

Particularly the area from WF to Childress seems to have the most extreme weather. Once you get NW of Childress you start getting some benefit of elevation as you get closer to Amarillo. Truly takes a hearty soul to put up with 110s in the summer and 0's in the winter. Great storm spotting potential during the spring though!

[Ntxw]

Spring equinox heat wave 2026 has begun. Near 90 in the panhandle today, likely 100s out there by the weekend. Many areas in the rest of the state will be 95-100F. Day to day records will likely be broken, and if anything the duration of this event is impressive being this is Spring. This would make news even in May or early June.

We are not alone, the southwest is baking even more and there is a marine ocean heat wave off the California coast in the Pacific.

[Stratton23]

That temperature map makes me want to cry lol

[Stratton23]

hopefully april and may turn out to be wet, because todays summer 3 month outlook ( June- August ) from NOAA has texas well below average precipitation wise , im really hoping thats not the case, because you can have a really wet april/ may and if the faucet shuts off completely in the summer, all that rainfall could be erased in the blink of an eye and we end up with severe drought conditions again

[snownado]

The real story is not just the heat itself or even the time of year, but the fact that we're seeing such temps with 500mb heights only maxing out around between 582dm to 588dm and not even severe/extreme drought conditions.

It definitely doesn't bode out for the Summer when we start seeing those 594dm to 600dm ridges, assuming there's no real pattern change to mute the feedback loop...

[txtwister78]

The real story is not just the heat itself or even the time of year, but the fact that we're seeing such temps with 500mb heights only maxing out around between 582dm to 588dm and not even severe/extreme drought conditions.

It definitely doesn't bode out for the Summer when we start seeing those 594dm to 600dm ridges, assuming there's no real pattern change to mute the feedback loop...

I don't necessarily think we can draw any real correlation just yet to the current setup bringing above normal heat to that of what our summer pattern will resemble a few months away.

I do think the amount of dry soil we have in place in parts of the state does play somewhat of a factor in some aspects of this while not ignoring the impressive and yes a little unusual strength of this heat ridge in place for this time of year.

If we're still seeing this come late April and May then perhaps that's a different story but I do think as we make this transition to el nino the precip equation to this will begin to change and that alone should help keep record temps at bay at a minimum.

[Cpv17]

The real story is not just the heat itself or even the time of year, but the fact that we're seeing such temps with 500mb heights only maxing out around between 582dm to 588dm and not even severe/extreme drought conditions.

It definitely doesn't bode out for the Summer when we start seeing those 594dm to 600dm ridges, assuming there's no real pattern change to mute the feedback loop...

Well at least you guys up there aren’t really in a bad drought yet. I’m already in an extreme drought down here.

[Stratton23]

I actually have a question regarding heat ridges and texas, what actually causes a massive heat ridge to park itself over texas and become stuck in place for weeks on end? . I understand that high pressure follows low pressure, but we have seen in past summers that these ridges can become nearly stationary over the state for a large part of summer