SPAC: NARELLE - Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/2035179162881642789

[cycloneye]

[sasha_B]

The latest JTWC forecast calls for intensification to 115 kt off Australia's west coast by 18z Thursday, with remarkable RI of 65 kt in 48 hours, and 40 kt in 24 hours, anticipated in the leadup to that forecast point. There's a lot of time between now and then, though, and a lot could change - despite dramatically overperforming the forecast on its approach to Queensland, Narelle seems to have underperformed slightly in the Gulf of Carpentaria - but it seems like the JTWC, at least, expects a "repeat performance".

If Narelle DOES pull off that kind of intensification, it could challenge its own MSLP record; because it's anticipated to reach SSHWS Category 4 near 21S, with (much) wider forecast gale radii, it could plausibly reach a ΔP close to that of its pre-landfall peak even with weaker sustained winds. So I'm planning to come back and track this one once it's back over the water.

[Cargill]

If Narelle DOES pull off that kind of intensification, it could challenge its own MSLP record; because it's anticipated to reach SSHWS Category 4 near 21S, with (much) wider forecast gale radii, it could plausibly reach a ΔP close to that of its pre-landfall peak even with weaker sustained winds. So I'm planning to come back and track this one once it's back over the water.

Thanks for that ... interesting! I should re-emphasise how incredibly unpopulated the whole northern half of the Australian continent is - and the presence of regular cyclones is one very serious reason why this is the case. Along with the outrageously hot-humid weather, and terrible soil.

[cycloneye]

The new forecast track from JTWC has a closer path to the coast and that is why it now peaks at 100kts.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2035734236448063571

[cycloneye]

Time over water is limited on the latest forecast from JTWC.

[cycloneye]

At 15z, peak is 95 kt.

[Hurricane2022]

C5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at peak intensity

[cycloneye]

The time over water is more and more short.

[sasha_B]

On the other hand, Narelle seems to be intensifying at a decent pace this morning. Let's see how far it gets.

[cycloneye]

The JTWC new peak goes up to 100 kt.

[sasha_B]

I'd place Narelle's current intensity around 55 kt and 986 hPa; subjective and objective satellite estimates both suggest a T# around 3.5. The CDO is a little lacking in symmetry, but there's very deep convection popping up near the center, and all signs point to a general strengthening trend.

The JTWC's forecast seems spot-on; I think a peak between 95 and 100 kt is the most likely outcome. But, if it intensifies rapidly from now through 18z on the 26th, it still stands a chance of peaking as a high-end SSHWS Category 3, imo. SSTs won't be much of a limiting factor over the next 48h, and the JTWC's prognostic reasoning doesn't consider frictional land interaction to be a limiting factor either (just a contributing factor to weakening after its anticipated peak).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.