2026 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Is open)

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,here is the poll you were waiting for,the forecast numbers poll for, the 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season that is here to forget about the very cold winter than many of tye members have been thru and talk about tropical weather and see how the season will be in terms of the numbers. Below are a few tips about this poll:



Countdown to end of 2026 Storm 2K poll at June 1 at 12:00 AM midnight EDT



1-You can post your numbers whenever you want between April 1 at 2 PM EDT and June 1 at Midnight EDT when the poll closes. Also members can add a brief commentary if you want to do so about why you have the numbers you posted in the poll.

2-You can post a set of numbers and not change them anymore and in that case, I will consider your numbers as final.

3-If you have preliminary numbers and later post final ones, those will be posted with the word Final. If by June 1 at Midnight EDT when the poll closes,there are still members that have preliminary numbers,I will consider them as final ones.

4-Any early named system(s) that may form before June 1rst will count for the set of numbers.

5-If a system is upgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane in Post-Season Report,it will count for the final tally to see which members came close or nailed the numbers.

6-(Optional) The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season will not count for the poll but if any member wants to post what they think about how the ACE will be,go ahead.

7-Anyone can participate,from the pro mets,those who like Tropical Weather and like to track tropical systems,those who don't know a lot about tropical weather,and the newbies too are welcomed.I know that the numbers are not the most important thing in a season, but more important are where the storms will go,so it doesn't matter how many named storms form,as it only takes one storm to do all the damage to an area. However,it's always very interesting to make a poll like this to see what the members think about the numbers game and how active or not the season will turn out and at the end of the season, will see how many members get close or tie what the 2026 season will offer.

8-Dont worry if you are not added fast to the list because,as soon I come on-line, will be added. So let's get this thing rolling guys and gals and let's see if this 2026 poll has a better participation than the 2025 one,that had 92 members. Can we have 100+ participants?


9- If any member wants to look at the past polls since 2005, click the link that gets you to the Storm2k forecasting contest forum. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=25

Good luck to all.

List of Participants:

1- cycloneye= 12/5/2 ACE: 92 (Final)

2- CFLHurricane= 11/7/1 ACE: 77 (Final)

3- HurricaneEnzo= 10/6/2 ACE: 62 (Final)

4- DorkyMcDorkface= 12/5/2 ACE: 65 (Preliminary)

5- Hurricane2022= 9/4/2 ACE: 85 (Preliminary)

6- Steve= 14/7/2/ ACE: 102 (Final)

7- WaveBreaking= 12/5/2 ACE: 80 (Preliminary)

8- Category5Kaiju= 12/6/2 ACE: 75 (Preliminary)

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[CFLHurricane]

11/7/1 ACE 77 Final

[HurricaneEnzo]

10/6/2 ACE-62

[DorkyMcDorkface]

NS: 12
HU: 5
MH: 2
ACE: 65
(Prelim)

Unfavorable ENSO and PMM config should hamper activity for the most part. If the MDR can warm a decent amount like the CanSIPS and CFS are suggesting there could be occasional windows of favorability E of 50W. Otherwise look for more homegrown/subtropical low-ACE systems.

[cycloneye]

First four participants are on the list. Need a stats guru later on to crunch the numbers.

[Hurricane2022]

9/4/2, ACE 85 prelim.

[Steve]

First four participants are on the list. Need a stats guru later on to crunch the numbers.

You mean the next 4. There was an original [tm] official [tm] first answer.

[cycloneye]

First four participants are on the list. Need a stats guru later on to crunch the numbers.

You mean the next 4. There was an original [tm] official [tm] first answer.

You are #6 on the list.

[WaveBreaking]

12/5/2 80 ACE (preliminary)

[Category5Kaiju]

12 NSs, 6 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes. ACE of 75 (Preliminary guess)

I think this will be the first below-average season since 2015, at least when looking at general numbers across the board and ACE count. I also think that the Caribbean Sea and deep tropical Atlantic will be rather unfavorable for significant activity and that most of this season's action will take place in the Gulf, the SW Atlantic, and the subtropics.

With all of this being said.....I do think that the Atlantic will still warm up somewhat by peak season, that Africa will be slightly wetter than last year, and that this season won't be a total shutout. The big and bold caveat I'm also predicting is that this will basically be a less active version of 1999/2007/2025, where the storms that don't become major hurricanes struggle immensely or at least only turn into marginal hurricanes, but the 2 that do become major hurricanes will take optimal advantage of a pocket of favorable conditions in a certain place and at a certain time. And among these 2 major hurricanes, 2026 will continue the pattern since 2015 of generating at least one high-end Category 4, if not another Category 5 yet again. And last but not least, one or both of these major hurricanes will get their name retired.

[cycloneye]

Going to be away from the PC for maybe a couple of hours but when I am back, will enter those members who may have posted so don't worrie that you are not there fast.