WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/2044046302720274725

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/matteyowwwwww/status/2044065814639480891

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/2044046302720274725

Why in the world those people are outside in those extreme bad conditions?

[doomhaMwx]

Guam radar hasn't updated since 13:47Z.

[cycloneye]

Guam radar hasn't updated since 13:47Z.

https://i.imgur.com/seo1Los.png

[Ed_2001]

The EWRC may have weakened the storm somewhat but the expanded wind field and slow forward speed means as of 3am local time in Saipan, hurricane force gusts have been blowing consistently for at least 18 hours and 100mph+ gusts have persisted for the most part since 14 hours ago, save for the last 3-4 hours presumably in the decaying inner eyewall/new large eye, but gusts are still above hurricane force. (I’m assuming the 2 hour calm is faulty data based on visibility readings still being really low, heavy precip recorded during those hours etc)

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PGSN.html

And it seems they are only now re-entering the other side of the outer eyewall based on the gusts shooting up to well over 100mph again. The longevity of the extreme winds is absolutely brutal.

[mrbagyo]

Dropping again -
Now at 921

Maybe it's intensifying once more

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2044102208032014507

[Hurricane2022]

I maintain that Sinlaku's peak started around 6 hours ago, and was around 165 kt and at or below 886 hPa. My rationale for the wind speed estimate is that that's where subjective and objective DT/ADT estimates were at the time (and indeed, still are, despite the fact that weakening appears to have started). ADT and subjective DT were 8.0, notwithstanding the apparent prohibition on assigning subjective T-values over 7.5 at the JTWC. SATCON and D-PRINT were also closer to 160 kt than 155 kt between 09z and 15z; AIDT and D-MINT were also at 152 kt and 155 kt, respectively, by 12z - and these represented the floor of the data envelope. ADT CI had exceeded 7.5 by 11z; ADT Adj. got there 3 hours earlier, around the same time that EIR satellite imagery began to support subjective DT 8.0.

As for my MSLP estimate, even using the most conservative available values for 34kt wind radii by quadrant (<180 nm avg.) and forward motion (10+ kt), the CKZ wind-pressure relationship gives a ΔP of －122.3 for a 165 kt storm between 10.5～11°N. Assuming MSLP at the outermost closed isobar was 1008 hPa, that comes out to 885.7 hPa for Sinlaku's central pressure. It's worth noting that the JTWC's official gale radii are larger than the values I used here; if we were to use the JTWC's own gale radii and P(Env) values, CKZ would yield 882.2 hPa.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

 https://x.com/i/status/2044096598524019075


 https://x.com/i/status/2044079775195541770

[sasha_B]

As for my MSLP estimate, even using the most conservative available values for 34kt wind radii by quadrant (<180 nm avg.) and forward motion (10+ kt), the CKZ wind-pressure relationship gives a ΔP of －122.3 for a 165 kt storm between 10.5～11°N. Assuming MSLP at the outermost closed isobar was 1008 hPa, that comes out to 885.7 hPa for Sinlaku's central pressure. It's worth noting that the JTWC's official gale radii are larger than the values I used here; if we were to use the JTWC's own gale radii and P(Env) values, CKZ would yield 882.2 hPa.

 https://x.com/i/status/2044096598524019075


 https://x.com/i/status/2044079775195541770

So it wasn't just me

But seriously, the fact that it was still as deep as 917 hPa a few hours ago, despite such prolonged & significant deterioration, is really something. No way of knowing for sure, but this is a little more circumstantial evidence in support of Sinlaku's peak intensity having been ≦890 hPa IMO.

[MarioProtVI]

Observations seem to support JTWC’s peak pressure-wise so that’s quite a win for them, considering their not-so-great record in the past. I think I’d go with about 165 kt / 885 mb as the peak, and I could probably see JTWC go there in post-analysis best track.

[cycloneye]

Moving slowly NNW and that movement causes the backside effects to continue pounding Tianan and Saipan and Guam in a much lesser degree.

[ljmac75]

That thing has barely moved for hours now, they've been under an extreme wind warning for like 16 hours now.

[WaveBreaking]

Moving slowly NNW and that movement causes the backside effects to continue pounding Tianan and Saipan and Guam in a much lesser degree.

https://i.imgur.com/Hb9l5JE.gif

You can see the inner eyewall rotating around and finally opening up in the loop.

[doomhaMwx]

Dropping again -
Now at 921

Maybe it's intensifying once more
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bquEu.jpg

That was recorded at 17:14Z, when the center was already west of the islands (attached MW image from ~17:40Z), so Sinlaku may indeed be intensifying again, but there may have also been mesovortex influence along the inner edge of the eyewall. Thus, the earlier 927-930 mb readings (915-920 mb when corrected) seem to be the more appropriate to use when estimating the intensity before/during landfall.

[cycloneye]

Down to cat 3.

04W SINLAKU 260415 0000 15.6N 145.2E WPAC 110 944

[cycloneye]

Still big hazards for the islands.

The eye of Typhoon Sinlaku (04W) is moving slowly north-northwest and away from Tinian and Saipan. Winds up to 130 mph are still found within the slow-moving eyewall, so winds of excess of 115 mph are still expected at Tinian and Saipan for a few more hours, but as the eye moves off further to the north-northwest winds will start to decrease. Tropical storm force winds still extend across Rota and Guam, and will be slow to subside across the Marianas due to the size of the storm. Winds look to begin falling below tropical storm force for Guam late tonight, Rota around Thursday morning, and Tinian and Saipan Thursday evening or Thursday night. Typhoon Sinlaku will begin to pass through the northern CNMI just west of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan, through the latter half of the week.
For those under a warning in Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, remain in a designated shelter or in a sturdy, fully reinforced concrete building to ride out the storm until winds have subsided and the "all clear" is given.
Stay inside and away from windows. Do not venture outside when high winds are occurring as flying debris can easily cause serious injury.
For those under a warning in the far northern Marianas Islands of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan, preparations for the protection of life and property should be completed and should be seeking shelter to ride out the storm.
Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Listen to local government officials regarding evacuations, COR levels, and shelter designations. For the latest forecasts and information, please visit weather.gov/gum.

 https://x.com/NWSGuam/status/2044200557670228367