2026 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Visible

[cycloneye]

Already the basin is racing in the ACE with more than 20 units and with El Niño prospects ahead, for sure it will get a ton more, maybe up to 300.

[cycloneye]

Already the basin is racing in the ACE with more than 20 units and with El Niño prospects ahead, for sure it will get a ton more, maybe up to 300.

https://i.imgur.com/T5F2Xkb.png

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Looking more than 300.

[cycloneye]

Already this early over 40 ACE.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045314648929435977

[dexterlabio]

For this year to remain in the running for the top ACE producers, the month of May should feature another Sinlaku-type howler.

[Hayabusa]

Nothing yet on the AI models but Euro and GFS are hinting tropical activity coming May

[cycloneye]

GFS on long range for May 5 has a parade.

[cycloneye]

Basin with a very fast start after Sinkalu with 42.72 ACE units, but there may be some fixing data at post season report.

[cycloneye]

Here are the tracks when El Niño is up and a good deal of them are recurves.

[Hayabusa]

GFS continue to show TC dvlpt over the Philippine sea while Euro and the AI models nothing

[Hayabusa]

Latest CPC update

In the western Pacific, guidance has been consistent in featuring elevated formation chances east of the Marianas tied to the aforementioned low frequency circulation consisting of a region of anomalous low-level westerlies, decreased shear, and enhanced divergence aloft. With additional support from AI tools favoring potential genesis in the wake of Sinlaku, 40% chances for TC development are also issued for week-2 near 160E where genesis signals are strongest, with a broader 20% area from approximately 140E to 170E. With these favorable environmental conditions expected to persist later in May based on CFSv2, GEFS ,and ECMWF extended range guidance, 20% chances of TC development for this part of the basin for week-3.

Though latest runs from Deepmind and Euro AI show no possible development east of the Marianas, while latest 12Z Euro long range (beyond 10 days) shows something forming.

[Hayabusa]

GFS still showing multiple TCs forming near end April to early May, while Euro and AI models nothing. Either GFS gonna bust or AI models gonna be wrong for the first time in a while on TCG.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The tropical West #Pacific can turn active again in early May.

[image or embed]

— Jason Nicholls (@jnmet.bsky.social) April 23, 2026 at 8:54 AM

The tropical West #Pacific can turn active again in early May. - [Jason Nicholls, April 23, 2026 at 8:54 AM]

[Hayabusa]

GFS dropped the western storm and only significantly develops the one east of the Marianas. AI models still nothing BUT their ensembles are starting to react not just the one east of Marianas

[cycloneye]

GFS on day 9.

[Hurricane2022]

GFS on day 9.

https://i.imgur.com/BatpXZl.png

I think I've never seen any other model simulate such a small system as this 949 mb one that the GFS produced in this run

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

The upcoming upgrade for Euro, IFS Cycle 50r1 has an intense typhoon west of Guam on the latest 00Z run

[cycloneye]

The upcoming upgrade for Euro, IFS Cycle 50r1 has an intense typhoon west of Guam on the latest 00Z run

Do you have graphic of the run?

[Hayabusa]

The upcoming upgrade for Euro, IFS Cycle 50r1 has an intense typhoon west of Guam on the latest 00Z run

Do you have graphic of the run?

Tried plotting it using a vortex tracker on the forecast grib files

source from here: https://data.ecmwf.int/forecasts/testdata/