4 of the 9 ENSO models go warm (El Niño)

[Stormsfury]

This doesn't include the ECMWF which continues to trend warmer with the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific ...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

A precautionary note from the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (on their site) ...

COMMENTARY:

The tropical Pacific is currently in a Neutral state, although there has been some warming over the past one to two months with scattered patches of +1°C anomalies. The model outputs are strongly in favour of a continuation of a somewhat warm but Neutral situation during the next five months. One model (Scripps/MPI) of the 11 available reaches Warm (El Niño) by April 2004. By July 2004, 4 of the 9 models available have reached Warm (El Niño) with the other 5 showing Neutral. In addition, the JMA model goes Warm in May.

However, the March to June period is known as the "predictability barrier" and model skill is at its lowest predicting across this span of months. It is also worth noting that some of the models that are predicting an El Niño next year did likewise for each of the past three years despite the fact that there was only one event during this time!

Users should therefore exercise caution when interpreting forecasts for the middle of 2004, and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the links.

This survey last updated 27th November 2003.
Next update expected in last week of December 2003.

[Anonymous]

the only change is that SCRIPPS/MPI is forecasting warm ENSO conditions in April. Rob and I prefer climo....models may become more useful in a few months imo.

[Stormsfury]

the only change is that SCRIPPS/MPI is forecasting warm ENSO conditions in April. Rob and I prefer climo....models may become more useful in a few months imo.

ECMWF is trending towards warm as well ... however, I do like the precautionary note regarding the past several years ... Preliminarily, I don't like the prospects of an active season (like many others), despite the signals in the ATL at this time. Until I do much more research and analysis, I am not putting out any numbers for 2004 until I have a much better grasp of the conditions at hand ...

SF

[wxman57]

Well, I certainly don't think any El Nino or La Nina is going to be a major factor this year. At best, there will be neutral to very weak El Nino conditions for the 2004 season. And weak to moderate El Ninos have little or no effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Strong El Ninos, like 1983 (4 storms) and 1997 (7 storms) do reduce the number of storms. With Atlantic SSTs likely to be above normal for 2004 and probably for the next several decades, 2004 will almost certainly be another season with an above-normal number of storms.

However, I caution you to not focus on the number of storms. We've had a lot of storms the past 8 years, but few significant landfalls. If the steering patterns take the storms across the Caribbean Sea and/or into the southeast U.S. coast, then a major hurricane landfall is quite likely. Florida remains at high risk.

[Anonymous]

Well, I certainly don't think any El Nino or La Nina is going to be a major factor this year. At best, there will be neutral to very weak El Nino conditions for the 2004 season. And weak to moderate El Ninos have little or no effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Strong El Ninos, like 1983 (4 storms) and 1997 (7 storms) do reduce the number of storms. With Atlantic SSTs likely to be above normal for 2004 and probably for the next several decades, 2004 will almost certainly be another season with an above-normal number of storms.

However, I caution you to not focus on the number of storms. We've had a lot of storms the past 8 years, but few significant landfalls. If the steering patterns take the storms across the Caribbean Sea and/or into the southeast U.S. coast, then a major hurricane landfall is quite likely. Florida remains at high risk.

Agree 100%...excellent.

[cycloneye]

Well, I certainly don't think any El Nino or La Nina is going to be a major factor this year. At best, there will be neutral to very weak El Nino conditions for the 2004 season. And weak to moderate El Ninos have little or no effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Strong El Ninos, like 1983 (4 storms) and 1997 (7 storms) do reduce the number of storms. With Atlantic SSTs likely to be above normal for 2004 and probably for the next several decades, 2004 will almost certainly be another season with an above-normal number of storms.

However, I caution you to not focus on the number of storms. We've had a lot of storms the past 8 years, but few significant landfalls. If the steering patterns take the storms across the Caribbean Sea and/or into the southeast U.S. coast, then a major hurricane landfall is quite likely. Florida remains at high risk.

I agree with you about ENSO not being a big factor next season unless an unexpected warmup of el nino 3 region change the status from neutral to weak to moderate el nino but there will be plenty of weeks to watch this evolve.