Models continue very bullish on caribbean area

[cycloneye]

http://storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw3.cg ... n&state=PR

Read this very interesting discussion from the NWS in San Juan and see what they analize about all the model scenarios from GFS going more slow with the low to CMC being the most bullish of the models forming a strong system like a megabomb as Stormsfury says in another thread.But whatever comes out of this it will be a bonus and the close curtain for a very long and full of records this 2003 season has been.

[abajan]

I haven't been checking out satellite pictures much lately because I figured that the season is fast coming to a close. So you can imagine my shock when I looked at a shot of the Carribbean this morning and saw all of that convection.

This could get interesting!

[Stormsfury]

Convection continues to persist and crazy it may seem, this one just might have some chance to become something ...

All of the 00z Global Models and (now the UKMET is on board) continue to indicate development, with the Canadian creating a MEGABOMB ... Yesterday's EURO also spins up a low and keeps it in the Western Caribbean ...

I have a problem with the Canadian run. The high pressure over the Eastern US pulls out too quickly, IMHO ... and the models are already hinting at a cold air damming scenario for the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states. The Canadian is assuming a FULL BLOWN PHASING of the tropical system and another low dropping in at the middle levels across the Eastern States ...

The Canadian Ensembles have a depiction on many of the members of a tropical system, but oddly enough, the CMC members that usually go ape with BOMBING LOWS doesn't (CMC2, CMC4) this time, where other members do ... What happens later in the period is highly dependant on what happens down in the Caribbean ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

SF

[cycloneye]

Convection continues to persist and crazy it may seem, this one just might have some chance to become something ...

All of the 00z Global Models and (now the UKMET is on board) continue to indicate development, with the Canadian creating a MEGABOMB ... Yesterday's EURO also spins up a low and keeps it in the Western Caribbean ...

I have a problem with the Canadian run. The high pressure over the Eastern US pulls out too quickly, IMHO ... and the models are already hinting at a cold air damming scenario for the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states. The Canadian is assuming a FULL BLOWN PHASING of the tropical system and another low dropping in at the middle levels across the Eastern States ...

The Canadian Ensembles have a depiction on many of the members of a tropical system, but oddly enough, the CMC members that usually go ape with BOMBING LOWS doesn't (CMC2, CMC4) this time, where other members do ... What happens later in the period is highly dependant on what happens down in the Caribbean ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

SF

Very interesting what is going on with all those model scenarios so let's watch this bonus system after the 30th to close a very active and full of records 2003 was.

[dixiebreeze]

The NHC folks must be rolling their collective eyes They probably thought they would have a holiday vacation from the tropics

Must be some life in the tropics yet.

[wxman57]

I'm rolling my eyes too, as I wasn't able to take very much vacation yet this past year. Each time I tried to take a day of two off I had to cancel it because of a storm developing. I'm scheduled to work only 11 days in December (4 days this week, 4 next, and 3 the week after). If this thing develops, I'll have to cancel vacation once again. But, I had nowhere to go, so I might as well track a storm.

[msbee]

I haven't been checking out satellite pictures much lately because I figured that the season is fast coming to a close. So you can imagine my shock when I looked at a shot of the Carribbean this morning and saw all of that convection.

This could get interesting!

abajan, me too! :bo
where did that come from?

[cycloneye]

I haven't been checking out satellite pictures much lately because I figured that the season is fast coming to a close. So you can imagine my shock when I looked at a shot of the Carribbean this morning and saw all of that convection.

This could get interesting!

abajan, me too! :bo
where did that come from?

It would be the first development in the caribbean ever in december so history may be unfolding here.Looking at it this afternoon it looks to be a bit organized with the weak low at around 10-11n and around 81w.It needs persistance of the convection for 24 hours to then be more worried about development but chances are good.The important thing will be what track it takes once it develops.Will it does a Lenny type of track or it will go NE thru Cuba or Haiti? Those questions will be answered soon so stay tuned here at the storm2k tropical forum.

[ColdFront77]

The strong high pressure over northern Florida is 1028 mb, which is 30.36 in.; down about three millibars from about six hours ago.

The pressure gradient will be interesting to say the least if this low can developing even fair rapidly as the high moves offshore.

[wxman57]

23Z QuickSCAT indicates no low center over water. If there is any weak LLC, it's over Panama now:

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds20.png

I'd say there is maybe a 20-30% chance of TD/TS development in 3-4 days - that's 60-70% chance it won't. A possibility, but not a great one at this time.