When 98L invest will be up for caribbean area?

[cycloneye]

By monday morning the invest will be up.

[wxman57]

Here's my take on the disturbance:

Satellite and surface observations indicate that a weak area of low pressure is located about 500 miles south of Jamaica near 11.5N/80W. Thunderstorm activity in the region has become a little better organized overnight, but I do not see any evidence of a well-defined low-level circulation center. With weak steering currents aloft, I am not expecting very much movement over the next 3-4 days. Upper-level winds appear to be favorable for tropical development, so I'll be monitoring this strong disturbance beyond the end of hurricane season, which would normally end today.

A number of computer models have consistently indicated that this disturbance will become better organized by the middle to end of this week, possibly becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm. While I'm not certain that such development will occur, I do think that tropical development is possible as long as the squalls remain stationary over water south of Jamaica. As for future movement, I don't see much to move the disturbance through the middle of the week. But by Thursday, an approaching frontal system to the north may impart a slow northeastward movement on the disturbance. This could bring heavy squalls and gusty wind across the Dominican Republic, eastward across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by next weekend, regardless of whether or not this disturbance becomes a depression or a storm. Beyond next weekend, the system should track out to sea into the Atlantic. It will not threaten the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. mainland.

[cycloneye]

Great summary 57 of what is going on and what might occur by looking at things at this time but as we know the models change in every run but being the globals on a consensus we can't discount tropical development and apart from the upper conditions being favorable down there the SST'S are still warm there so let's see what happens in the comming days.

[ColdFront77]

The very strong cold front that cleared the United States two days ago obviously missed/is going to miss this area of convection in the western Caribbean.

The next cold front is back through Wisconsin, Iowa, extreme southern Nebraska, back into Wyoming... which is plenty far northwest of this system in the western Caribbean to move more northerly than northeasterly in the short term.

The very strong surface high over northern Florida has weakened about 3 millibars in the last six hours and should move easterly or at least have an easterly component which will return the southwest flow to eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and Florida.

[dixiebreeze]

Well, Luis, I voted for in Invest by Tues. afternoon, but right now, the disturbance looks pretty wimpy. What do you think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[cycloneye]

Well, Luis, I voted for in Invest by Tues. afternoon, but right now, the disturbance looks pretty wimpy. What do you think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

It looks less organized convectionwise than on sunday and really if there is a low down there it is a little small one that TWD says it is around 11n at 1010 mbs.But the models haved backed off only the canadian one goes bullish but I think that 10 % for the area to develop is generous from me.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Luis. I tend to agree, it's not looking very hearty right now.

[Derecho]

It's much more defined with a clear low-level circulation.

Yes, there's less convection, but you can be a bit mislead if all you look at is IR.

A defined LLC with limited convection has more chance of developing than a lot of convection with no circulation.

Also, you're missing the best sat pics:

You can do your own zoom visible loop at:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[JCT777]

Derecho: What is your thinking regarding this system? Do you feel it has a chance to become a named storm?

[Hurricanehink]

I think that if it would have become a storm, it would have done so. It continues to become less organized over time, and I am not impressed with it now. It would still be cool to see that Odette we've been wanting since the renmants of Nicholas.

[Steve H.]

I actually think Derecho is correct. The Low Level Circulation is quite impressive, located at about 10N/81W. Quite a circulation around that center. Seems to be lifting SLOWLY northward (there actually might bew a piece of energy moving into the EPAC as well, as some models are indicating). CHances of development? Don't know - who woulda figured it would be there at all! But UL conditions may support it, though there is an upper low south of Panama. SSTs down there would support it, so if it slowly moved northward chances would increase. Coin flip right now. But there is a well developed low level center down there and, like Derecho said, we have a circulation, which is much more noteworthy than a ton of convection. Something to watch as models are entertaining tropical influence into the low that will form somewhere off the east coast. Fully-phased; that's a longshot but not out of the question

[cycloneye]

I actually think Derecho is correct. The Low Level Circulation is quite impressive, located at about 10N/81W. Quite a circulation around that center. Seems to be lifting SLOWLY northward (there actually might bew a piece of energy moving into the EPAC as well, as some models are indicating). CHances of development? Don't know - who woulda figured it would be there at all! But UL conditions may support it, though there is an upper low south of Panama. SSTs down there would support it, so if it slowly moved northward chances would increase. Coin flip right now. But there is a well developed low level center down there and, like Derecho said, we have a circulation, which is much more noteworthy than a ton of convection. Something to watch as models are entertaining tropical influence into the low that will form somewhere off the east coast. Fully-phased; that's a longshot but not out of the question

Convection has to consolidate bigtime around that low and persist and that is what is lacking today from yesterday when much more convection was in the area.I will stick with the 10% chance for development until I see clear signs of the convection consolidating and persisting.

[Steve H.]

And you might be right Luis. BTW, the Euro is out and it develops the Caribbean system, but doesn't draw it in toward the east coast, but rather keeps it as its own entity and moves it NE toward Haiti

[cycloneye]

However the latest TWD didn't mention any low down there so I go down the chances to 1% for it to develop.

[ColdFront77]

A defined LLC with limited convection has more chance of developing than a lot of convection with no circulation.

I've said this from time to time over the last two Hurricane Seasons.

[wxman57]

I can't tell if it has a significant surface circulation center, as there were absolutely no ship reports in that region all day today. On visible imagery, it does appear to have a good LOWER to MID level circulation center - but that center is inland over Costa Rica around 9.5N/83.2W. With convection almost nonexistent and the center (at whatever level) inland over Costa Rica, chances for development are much lower today. But it might now have a good chance of crossing into the Pacific and developing there.

I don't trust the Canadian model as far as I can throw it. It's been completely worthless all season long. But both the GFS and EC have been indicating SOME type of development down there on Wed/Thu. If the center can move back north over water (or south into the Pacific) it may well develop. Right now I'm lowering my estimation down from 20-30% to 10% (or less).

[Derecho]

It appears to be centered over Panama, somewhat elongated SW to NE as well, 1/2 over the Pacific, 1/2 over the Atlantic.

Interestingly some of the models, like the GFS, EC, etc. have actually forecast this configuration, with it eventually forming in the Atlantic and drifting NE.

And it may in fact be a "Low mid-level" circ, not pure LLC.

Upper level conditions have deteroriorated over it a bit....now getting a bit of SW shear as the upper high is not as well defined, is "squashed" and is centered east of it.

[Derecho]

Case in point...

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest


Dual-lobed low with one in the EPAC and one in the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

The low pressure 1009 mbs is now just north of Panama around 10n-80w with some convection near it.Let's see what happens with it in comming days.