Storm in the Northeast

Stormchaser16 · #1 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 5:55 pm

Well here we go, its that time of year again where i begin doing the old regular headache creating storm analysis'. Unfortunately right now I would like to wait a little while before making a detailed analysis on the system(probably later tonight with just some general thoughts) as i can use the new Euro. But for right now i am thinking that interior areas will see some snow(apps and interior new england). As for the coastal areas, well..... i dont forsee a wintry situation in and around the I95 corridor, and possibly lower elevations in southern new england as well. Too many complications for that to occur right now. But this is nothing final, as i said wait till later tonite hopefully and i will get more into it.

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 5:59 pm

Well, I guess that includes me...I'm about to throw the towel in, looks like mainly a rain event here

#3 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 7:54 pm

Well, I guess that includes me...I'm about to throw the towel in, looks like mainly a rain event here

have you seen the latest run of the EC

Colin · #4 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:01 pm

No, but I heard it's good for us

Cheesy_Poofs · #5 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:12 pm

RNS wrote:
Well, I guess that includes me...I'm about to throw the towel in, looks like mainly a rain event here

have you seen the latest run of the EC

I haven't.....What does it show??

#6 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:15 pm

a very good snow situation from lets say maryland northward... mixed precip more likely in DCA and PHL...snow NYC/BOX/inland

WXBUFFJIM · #7 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:18 pm

DCA-PHI are areas where changeovers and mixed precip is more common. That's what makes forecasting winter weather like this very challenging for the DC/Philly corridor during wintry mix situations.

It will be interesting to see how this thing evolves precip wise. Definitely looks like coastal winds will be an issue also.

Jim

Cheesy_Poofs · #8 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:18 pm

RNS wrote:a very good snow situation from lets say maryland northward... mixed precip more likely in DCA and PHL...snow NYC/BOX/inland

Yippie! I live in Central Maryland!

What do you think the chances of us here in Central Maryland getting some snow this weekend RNS/Jim? Have they gone up any since this afternoon? :?:

WXBUFFJIM · #9 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:23 pm

Living in central Maryland myself Jassi, I'm also looking forward to wintry weather returning. Looking ahead Friday through Sunday, It appears more wet wx than wintry wx will occur friday into Saturday. However a wintry mix is possible northwest of DC and Baltimore. By Saturday night into Sunday, we cannot rule out this precip changing over to snow as cold air wraps around a possible developing coastal low. However it's still several days out and exactly where the rain/snow line will be is dependent on

#1 where the storm is located
#2 where the storm goes
#3 how intense is the storm
#4 the forward speed of the storm
#5 is there enough cold arctic air in place.

Definitely a complicated scenario. However all 5 scenarios are key to the potential development and evolution of this system.

Jim

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:28 pm

I think things are looking pretty good as of now. We'll see what things look like tomorrow afternoon...I have to go to school the rest of this week.....I'll be anxious all day

"What are the s showing????????" :lol:

Cheesy_Poofs · #11 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:46 pm

I have to go to school the rest of the week too! :cry:

Hey Jim. I'm almost positive that you are, but aren't you " ShadowJim" from the Weather Channel Message Boards? And thanks for explaining evreything!

WXBUFFJIM · #12 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:50 pm

I am shadowjim from the weather channel. Same guy, same person, absolutely!!!

Jim

Cheesy_Poofs · #13 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:51 pm

Cool! I am " Winter_Weather" from the Weather Channel Boards....

Stormchaser16 · #14 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:09 pm

FOLKS:
Why this will NOT be a winter storm for in and around the corridor

And i will explain further below:

1: The proximity of the low to the coast
2: The SSTA temperatures off the coast
3: East winds
4: Low level warmth
5: Overall complexity
6: Ground warmth

1: The proximity of the low to the coast: This is a major feeder factor to most of the other points i have to make. The low being that close to the coast is only good in the most brutally cold airmass that could enter the area. ESPECIALLY this time of year when it has been relatively above average temperatures recently. The low being that close will cause a warm east wind to come in that would almost CERTAINLY changeover ALL of new jersey, PHL and parts of eastern PA(including NYC in this as well). While places further inland enjoy the snow.

2: This is not good because this only warms up the east winds that will be coming onshore from the low. Were talking winds that could be around 30-40 KTS. If the high IS as strong as it it shown to be then it may help to keep some of the precip in the formentioned areas as snow or mix for a part. However there is still no brutally cold air that this high will even have to work with.

3: Not much else to talk about here, except that i can show you the EC maps for what these east winds will do.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

NOTE: Most of southern and central Jersey are just BARELY cold enough for snow, take that and with an east wind for a few hours, the 850 temps could be -20 and with an east wind it will still changeover.

4: Already discussed, unfortunately i cant get a surface depiction of temperatures however im sure for southern and central jersey and the big cities, wed be looking at upper 30's to mid 40's depending on proximity to the coast, some areas with the warm influx may hit upper 40's as a surface temperature.

5: This whole situation is complex, we have a low that will be getting tropical feed, and we crucially need a strong high with VERY cold air to come in at just the right time, if it is behind then forget it, if it is out ahead then it will hurt even more and even inland areas could be screwed because it would aid in a strong easterly component wind.

6: Any snow that falls in the areas that are in the gray area are going to either have a very wet slushy mess or nothing, the ground warmth during the storm like mentioned may be too high for a pileup of snow unless temperatures miraculously fall.

Unless i see a major change in the situation, this is what i have picked up so far, and it seems reasonable to say that inland areas will enjoy this no matter what(unless high moves out too fast) but your gray areas include, southern new england, all of new jersey, eastern and southern PA, the lower midatlantic, and the I95 corridor from DC to NYC.

JCT777 · #15 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:07 am

Stormchaser - you have outlined all of my concerns regarding the weekend storm, and why I think it will be primarily a rain event for my area.

Stormchaser16 · #16 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:08 pm

Today i see NO reason to change the thinking of primarily a rain event for the coastal plain. so my outline stands from last nite, with really no major changes...

Ps: Nice 5 or 6 squalls of intense snow today, about a half an inch was on hte ground at one point... brining the total for the season to about .5" + trace

Storm in the Northeast

Storm in the Northeast

Interestingly

I'm ready for a winter wx event also in central MD..

yes

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