Odette forecast 1... possible hurricane if conditions remian

[Derek Ortt]

favorable

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic20fd.html

personally, it may be stronger than the 40KT I went with

[rainstorm]

not many have even got this far in dec

[ColdFront77]

Rare development, could mean rare movement. There is really no climatology to go by. Yes, a cold front is moving toward the system... it has moved about the length of Louisiana in the last 20 hours.

[HurricaneGirl]

I think it is way kewl that we have a December Storm! And we had an early storm too!

Has this ever happened before where there was an early storm and a late storm in the same season?

[Derek Ortt]

This track is straight forward. Only the intensity is a question and if recent trends continue, I overdid the intensity

[ColdFront77]

Trust me, Derek, I agree with you 100%... The track is straight forward. I am only making a point, one rare issue can and does at time lead to another rare issue.

[MWatkins]

If it becomes a hurricane...it's going to have to do so within the next 12 to 24 hours...after that things will start to get very unfavorable for additional development.

A large and deep trough is going to drop into the southeast US and the primarily zonal flow now over the Caribbean will bend to southwesterly flow in front of the trough. The 18Z GFS puts 30+ knots of shear...increasing with time...over the projected track of Odette...and water temps become marginal north of 20N.

To make to hurricane strength the system would have to intensify 1.5 t numbers in the next day...which is faster than the climatological rate for systems during the peak of the season. Given the absense of any significant trigger for rapid strengthening and the time of year...anyting past 45 knots seems to be a long shot.

Just my $0.02...

MW

[*StOrmsPr*]

If it becomes a hurricane...it's going to have to do so within the next 12 to 24 hours...after that things will start to get very unfavorable for additional development.

A large and deep trough is going to drop into the southeast US and the primarily zonal flow now over the Caribbean will bend to southwesterly flow in front of the trough. The 18Z GFS puts 30+ knots of shear...increasing with time...over the projected track of Odette...and water temps become marginal north of 20N.

To make to hurricane strength the system would have to intensify 1.5 t numbers in the next day...which is faster than the climatological rate for systems during the peak of the season. Given the absense of any significant trigger for rapid strengthening and the time of year...anyting past 45 knots seems to be a long shot.

Just my $0.02...

MW

what about the track mike??

[wxman57]

If it becomes a hurricane...it's going to have to do so within the next 12 to 24 hours...after that things will start to get very unfavorable for additional development.

A large and deep trough is going to drop into the southeast US and the primarily zonal flow now over the Caribbean will bend to southwesterly flow in front of the trough. The 18Z GFS puts 30+ knots of shear...increasing with time...over the projected track of Odette...and water temps become marginal north of 20N.

To make to hurricane strength the system would have to intensify 1.5 t numbers in the next day...which is faster than the climatological rate for systems during the peak of the season. Given the absense of any significant trigger for rapid strengthening and the time of year...anyting past 45 knots seems to be a long shot.

Just my $0.02...

MW

I agree, hurricane strength is quite unlikely. Also, I doubt that it is stronger than 35-40kts at present (supported by quickscat). Convectin is actually decreasing a little now. Wind shear will be increasing after about 12 hours, so the window of opportunity is small. Recon is set to head out at 12Z tomorrow, so we'll have some real data to work with by then.

I'm surprised that the NHC/TPC didn't send another plane out, as the storm will be impacting land within 24 hours.

[Stormsfury]

Did RECON experience aircraft problems and turn back earlier today?

SF

[cycloneye]

Mechannical problems Mike but at 12z tommorow morning another plane will go.

[VanceWxMan]

OMG you have to be joking! Hurricane??? sorry that is funny

Aaron

[ncweatherwizard]

If it becomes a hurricane...it's going to have to do so within the next 12 to 24 hours...after that things will start to get very unfavorable for additional development.

A large and deep trough is going to drop into the southeast US and the primarily zonal flow now over the Caribbean will bend to southwesterly flow in front of the trough. The 18Z GFS puts 30+ knots of shear...increasing with time...over the projected track of Odette...and water temps become marginal north of 20N.

To make to hurricane strength the system would have to intensify 1.5 t numbers in the next day...which is faster than the climatological rate for systems during the peak of the season. Given the absense of any significant trigger for rapid strengthening and the time of year...anyting past 45 knots seems to be a long shot.

Just my $0.02...

MW

I agree, hurricane strength is quite unlikely. Also, I doubt that it is stronger than 35-40kts at present (supported by quickscat). Convectin is actually decreasing a little now. Wind shear will be increasing after about 12 hours, so the window of opportunity is small. Recon is set to head out at 12Z tomorrow, so we'll have some real data to work with by then.

I'm surprised that the NHC/TPC didn't send another plane out, as the storm will be impacting land within 24 hours.

Definitely agree with both. 24 hours or less, opportunity is gone; if it were moving slower, it would be a different story possibly, but this will only speed up, and we're looking at significant interaction with the trough at about 18 to 24 hours, so we would need rapid intensification for a hurricane...extremely unlikely. Personally, I will say 50kts tops, since conditions are currently favorable--not even to say that it will reach that intensity--45kts may be more reasonable.

[Derek Ortt]

If the intensity is stronger than expected (i.e. SSMI center being the surface center, then it could within the next 12 to 24 hours, before conditions become unfavorable. If it is as disorganized as MW thinks, see you later Odette, you'll just be a weak TS