ECMWF screaming MAJOR overrunning event (CAD) on Day 7

[Stormsfury]

Thats a very sharp signature.

Infamous red X, QCWx.

EURO day 6 MSLP ---

Strong AG signature, but on Day 7, the High is being shoved Eastward and the low moves NE ... the only thing NOW that I see would be an in-situ wedge and EURO has no blocking signatures to lock the high in ... none ... and look out for the Western ATL ridge ... however, this can depend on our first system beforehand ... but the EURO implies that the second system goes slightly NEG TILT and in response, pokes up the ridge in the ATL ... not good for winter weather lovers in the Southeast ...

EURO Day 7 NH-500mb Heights ...

SF

[Upslope]

Tonight's EURO is NOT very good with CAD! It is marginal at best for Sunday and completly wipes it out on Monday with a strong INLAND low.

Again... I believe this run to be in error!

[QCWx]

Thats a very sharp signature.

Infamous red X, QCWx.

EURO day 6 MSLP ---

Strong AG signature, but on Day 7, the High is being shoved Eastward and the low moves NE ... the only thing NOW that I see would be an in-situ wedge and EURO has no blocking signatures to lock the high in ... none ... and look out for the Western ATL ridge ... however, this can depend on our first system beforehand ... but the EURO implies that the second system goes slightly NEG TILT and in response, pokes up the ridge in the ATL ... not good for winter weather lovers in the Southeast ...

EURO Day 7 NH-500mb Heights ...

SF

That darn red x!

You could really tell the cadding better on the ECMWF site...but I'm afraid the high will be too progressive alot like you.

[Stormsfury]

Tonight's run of the EURO just doesn't make sense to me! It seems to be having trouble with the ejection of the SW energy and thus leads to a bogus surface low in Missouri.

This is kind of strange from the EURO as it is usually too slow with SW energy and digs that energy moreso than other models.

Bottom line is we SHOULD be dealing with slower and somewhat deeper 500 mb energy coming into the south. Much farther south than the EURO is depicting. This would in turn cause SLP to form in the northern Gulf and head toward the eastern OV. This low would weaken and transfer energy to a coastal low.

In a nutshell... I think tonight's EURO is a bad run!

The EURO does have a bias of holding back s/w energy in the SW, but on this run, it's ejecting the s/w energy wholeheartedly at the 500mb level in the progressive flow ... but possibly, it's phasing everything all wrong ...

And yes, if the SFC low by the EURO is indeed too far north, there's the reason, it phases too early .. the further south the SFC low is, the later the phasing and/or transferrance of energy takes place ...

Otherwise, good catch, Upslope...

SF

[Guest]

storm fury i dont think it matters in the scenario. the high has already done its dirty work by the time it checks out day 7. day 6 the precip is already fully involved in NC and the high is still inplace. it looks like a situation that relys on timing. much different than our previous event. this is a classic CAD setup if the timing is correct....

[Stormsfury]

storm fury i dont think it matters in the scenario. the high has already done its dirty work by the time it checks out day 7. day 6 the precip is already fully involved in NC and the high is still inplace. it looks like a situation that relys on timing. much different than our previous event. this is a classic CAD setup if the timing is correct....

Hey HKY_WX2 ... (what happened to the first username?), good to see ya posting ... I STILL think just like last night the next run will trend colder and colder (just like I thought last night) and the overall consensus has been MUCH too warm, even in the short term lately ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

And HKY_WX, you're right, I don't buy that low slamming headlong through a low-level cold-air wedge ... there HAS to be some kind of transferrence to the coast ...

SF

[WxDen]

It seems as though just as one run begins showing signs of a possible -NAO setting up the next reverses. The High progged to be near Spain on tonights D 6-7 Euro gennerally teleconnects to the SE ridge. With the other variables involved it is possible for that "spanish high" to be further west. So, considering all the possible teleconnective variables, this run definitely has room for much different scenarios and can not be favored too strongly.

[HuffWx]

I dont like the EC's day 6-7 nor 10 day mean. If the HP exits, often the slp do take a more northern route because of the return flow. Looks abit overdone, but plausible if the low is a tad more south.

Not a big event on the way.

Huff

[Valkhorn]

I agree, I don't think the next 'big' event is going to happen until after Dec. 20th. The pattern just doesn't have enough cold air yet to produce something major as far as I see it.

Down the road, it could get very interesting for Christmas if all the ingredients arrive at the same time. The cold air will be there by the end of this month according to model consensus.

[HuffWx]

Yes, Pattern recognition!

Huff

[Stormsfury]

I agree, I don't think the next 'big' event is going to happen until after Dec. 20th. The pattern just doesn't have enough cold air yet to produce something major as far as I see it.

Down the road, it could get very interesting for Christmas if all the ingredients arrive at the same time. The cold air will be there by the end of this month according to model consensus.

Really becomes dependant on this next storm system currently taking shape over the Plains ... and just HOW much snowcover might be leftover.



SF

[RNS]

Tonight's run of the EURO just doesn't make sense to me! It seems to be having trouble with the ejection of the SW energy and thus leads to a bogus surface low in Missouri.

This is kind of strange from the EURO as it is usually too slow with SW energy and digs that energy moreso than other models.

Bottom line is we SHOULD be dealing with slower and somewhat deeper 500 mb energy coming into the south. Much farther south than the EURO is depicting. This would in turn cause SLP to form in the northern Gulf and head toward the eastern OV. This low would weaken and transfer energy to a coastal low.

In a nutshell... I think tonight's EURO is a bad run!

Its the Typical EC bias dude...its having problems with holding back STJ energy just like it did last winter...the 18z GFS (eventhough it isin/t in line w/ my thinking completely) is MUCH better...and besides how the Hell does one move a massive high like the EC depicted out of new england and allow the surface low to eun inland...w/ little sign of a coastal inverted trough and virtually a complete disregard of the MAJOR cold air damming situation that would be present w/ a high in the 1030s.

Until i see A) the EC runs becoem more consistent with such a solution... and B) tonights EC have SIGNIFICANT support from the other models I/m not going to buy it.

Right now i like the ideas i expressed earlier.

[RNS]

RNS,

A repeat of Xmas would be great (had thunder in my location in NNJ that time!)...

I'd feel more comfortable if the high was a little further west, but I see the suggestion of CAD is more than subtle

Of course, now that the 12Z GFS has lost the system (develops a low, but a day or two late, allowing the high to exit to the ENE), we'll have to wait until later today to see what the other medium range models have to say. I'm anxious to see the EC, which has been relatively dazzling with the last few winter storms (even stretching to last winter).

-Ken

Tonights run is about as dazzling as a big fresh pile of dog sh!t.

[Stormsfury]

RNS,

A repeat of Xmas would be great (had thunder in my location in NNJ that time!)...

I'd feel more comfortable if the high was a little further west, but I see the suggestion of CAD is more than subtle

Of course, now that the 12Z GFS has lost the system (develops a low, but a day or two late, allowing the high to exit to the ENE), we'll have to wait until later today to see what the other medium range models have to say. I'm anxious to see the EC, which has been relatively dazzling with the last few winter storms (even stretching to last winter).

-Ken

Tonights run is about as dazzling as a big fresh pile of dog sh!t.

*SF sprays PC with a shower of Cocoa Rice Krispies*...

[RNS]

RNS,

A repeat of Xmas would be great (had thunder in my location in NNJ that time!)...

I'd feel more comfortable if the high was a little further west, but I see the suggestion of CAD is more than subtle

Of course, now that the 12Z GFS has lost the system (develops a low, but a day or two late, allowing the high to exit to the ENE), we'll have to wait until later today to see what the other medium range models have to say. I'm anxious to see the EC, which has been relatively dazzling with the last few winter storms (even stretching to last winter).

-Ken

Tonights run is about as dazzling as a big fresh pile of dog sh!t.

*SF sprays PC with a shower of Cocoa Rice Krispies*...

Hahaha...

[Guest]

i agree with RNS. the slp track does look very "odd", and will likely change. as a result it pumps the 850 line day 6 up into pa. this is very unlikely IMO. I could see a system track from la to the tn valley, then shift energy to a slp of hat. this is a much more likely scenario, and one which supports ice in the piedmont of the ma. BTW. if the euro is correct on the high pressure 1042 over maine day 6. remember the precip here in NC is ending at this point. so the high has been used to maximum effect already and it doesnt matter if it moves out. obviously, we need a
-NAO/NF low (hold in the HP) to support a classic icestorm. but, just simply seems unlikely at this point. so timing will be essential. i think warm 850s are overdone. but, in this type of set-up thee dont correspond well to the surface. ex. dec 02 surface temps near the upper 20s here with 850s near 50* F!!!

talk bout overrunning/CAD!!!

[Valkhorn]

Looks like adequate snowfall will be placed over the northern tier for the next few systems. I think it will fill in gradually by the 20th.

Either way the snow in Canada is not going anywhere anytime soon. The snow in New England maybe, but not in Canada and the upper Midwest

[RNS]

i agree with RNS. the slp track does look very "odd", and will likely change. as a result it pumps the 850 line day 6 up into pa. this is very unlikely IMO. I could see a system track from la to the tn valley, then shift energy to a slp of hat. this is a much more likely scenario, and one which supports ice in the piedmont of the ma. BTW. if the euro is correct on the high pressure 1042 over maine day 6. remember the precip here in NC is ending at this point. so the high has been used to maximum effect already and it doesnt matter if it moves out. obviously, we need a
-NAO/NF low (hold in the HP) to support a classic icestorm. but, just simply seems unlikely at this point. so timing will be essential. i think warm 850s are overdone. but, in this type of set-up thee dont correspond well to the surface. ex. dec 02 surface temps near the upper 20s here with 850s near 50* F!!!

talk bout overrunning/CAD!!!

Its like i said HKY...it looks to me alot like Xmas 02 w/ a new twist...the big high to the north and stronger CAD...whicn may result in ICE for the major cities during the height of the event instead of heavy rain...and there is also a better shot at up to 6" in the I-95 corridor from the overrunning precip (associated with WAA) that breaks out w/ the first system and the wrap around precip as Ice changes to wind-whipped heavy snow as the system wraps-up. i think the SLP area is weaker than xmas but stronger than jan 03 and stronger than the previous system...not to meniton further south. (Most likely in the 980-990mb range).

Bottom line is w/ the exception of maybe far SE PA and SRN NJ this is likely a SNOW event for PA/NY/ and most of new england with the exception of the cape/nantucket to prehaps as far north as BOX but we have 7 days to work out the details.

[Upslope]

Looking at the latest data... we find ourselves in more than one camp with the modelling concerning this Sunday/Monday event.

The EURO is well to the west with the lead low across and has it across Missouri. (NOT LIKELY)

The GFS (through 120hrs as of writing) looks to be rather supressed with this low. (PROBABLY TOO SURPRESSIVE)

The Canadian is right in the middle of the two and takes the lead low into the eastern OV and weakens it through 144hrs. (THE MOST LIKELY SCENERIO)

It is amazing at the lack of continuity from the models in this time frame. This has been a constant problem this fall and early winter and is likely to continue. Pattern recognition and overall meteorological reasoning are the best tools for anyone right now.

One thing is for sure... this pattern is loaded for bear and will LIKELY lay down a snowpack fairly far south in the next few weeks. This in turn opens the door for a SEVERE COLD spell by years end!