In our lifetime will we see future seasons like 2003?

[cycloneye]

I say yes because of the global climate changes going on. What is your take on this?

[weatherluvr]

I would say yes, not necessarily because of any supposed climate change, but more because we are in a 20-30 year active phase in the Atlantic.

[Hurricanehink]

I agree completely. 21 storms in one season? Global Warming is happening, and we are bound to have active seasons. I think that the active phase may be because of Global warming, but I agree that more busy seasons will happen. Look at the past 9 years. Every year but 1997 was pretty active, so I think most seasons in the following decades will probably have like 12-14 storms. I think in the next 10 years, we will have at least one season with 21 storms. I hope we get to the Greek alphabet one year, but surprisingly, it could have happened this year, provided that all tropical depressions plus another storm formed. This is entirely plausible. In the middle of June, at the end of July, and at the end of August, there were well organized systems that could have been tropical systems. Who knows, Tropical Storm Alpha may just occur one day...

[deb_in_nc]

I say yes. Not only for the same reason that you stated but, the last few years have found ways to throw us a curve ball. No reason to think it'll stop now.

Debbie

[HurricaneGirl]

I voted yes because I think it will happen again. One pre-season storm and two post-season storms is an extraordinary occurence, but with the global warming issue and other factors, such as lightning strikes in eastern Siberia and red algae counts in the ocean that will increase SST's........

it is not impossible!! :fishslap:

Hurray for Odette and Peter!!!

[AussieMark]

Every year since 1995 has had something to make it memorable.

1995- The season where the Atlantic basin was close to running out of letters.
1996-Produced the first Hurricane of Major Hurricane status so early in the season since 1866.
1997 - The most inactive August-September period on record with only 1 storm Erika forming and the only one to develop in the tropical region.
1998 - One of the Deadliest Seasons on record if not one of THe (Mitch killed 8,000+ and Georges killed 602)
1999 - The only season to produce 5 Category 4/5 Hurricanes.
2000 - The longest lived August Tropical System.
2001 - One of the most active October/November period with 7 systems forming over that period.
2002 - A unprecedented 8 storms formed during September
2003 - Takle your pick

So really every season has something to make it strange and i expect this to continue.

[Hurricanehink]

Every year since 1995 has had something to make it memorable.

1995- The season where the Atlantic basin was close to running out of letters.
1996-Produced the first Hurricane of Major Hurricane status so early in the season since 1866.
1997 - The most inactive August-September period on record with only 1 storm Erika forming and the only one to develop in the tropical region.
1998 - One of the Deadliest Seasons on record if not one of THe (Mitch killed 8,000+ and Georges killed 602)
1999 - The only season to produce 5 Category 4/5 Hurricanes.
2000 - The longest lived August Tropical System.
2001 - One of the most active October/November period with 7 systems forming over that period.
2002 - A unprecedented 8 storms formed during September
2003 - Takle your pick

So really every season has something to make it strange and i expect this to continue.

For 1997, you could include having 4 systems form by the end of July. I agree completely that the oddities will continue.

[btangy]

Well, the hurricane record doesn't extend that far out (at least the reliable portion of it), so records and oddities need to be viewed with a bit of skepticism. There could very well may have been another season with 2 tropical cyclones in December in the near past, especially before satellite was used. A storm like Peter probably would have gone undetected without satellite. It has been a strange year certainly, but a precursor of things to come... i don't know.

[abajan]

There's really no way to know because some of our lives may end tonight and some of us may live for another 50 or 60 years!

That's the sobering truth, my friend.

However, assuming all of us live for at least another 30 years, my hunch (and this is strictly a hunch) is that we will indeed see more seasons like this.

[wxman57]

I agree completely. 21 storms in one season? Global Warming is happening, and we are bound to have active seasons. I think that the active phase may be because of Global warming, but I agree that more busy seasons will happen. Look at the past 9 years. Every year but 1997 was pretty active, so I think most seasons in the following decades will probably have like 12-14 storms. I think in the next 10 years, we will have at least one season with 21 storms. I hope we get to the Greek alphabet one year, but surprisingly, it could have happened this year, provided that all tropical depressions plus another storm formed. This is entirely plausible. In the middle of June, at the end of July, and at the end of August, there were well organized systems that could have been tropical systems. Who knows, Tropical Storm Alpha may just occur one day...

You might want to check out this article about "global warming, it's excellently written:

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1305/

I doubt that any "global warming" has the slightest bit to do with this past season. In fact, I've yet to be convinced that there is any evidence at all of a global warming. I think global warming could be explained by differences in the way observations are being taken now, vs. in the past. And if there is any such warming, it's almost certainly due to an increase in solar output, not man-made. But that's another argument. Oh, and if you're old enough, you might remember that back in the 1970s, the environmentalists were screaming about man's production of carbon dioxide causing "global cooling" an ice age in the near future. Beware of those with political agendas.

What we are seeing is the beginning of a 30-50 year cycle of strong thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. During these periods, the Atlantic heats up and major hurricanes become more common. The last such period was from 1926-1969. From 1970-1994, the Atlantic was in a "cool phase". Because of this, I think we'll look back on this season and get a kick out of thinking that it was an active one. We got VERY VERY lucky in 2003, and for the past 9 years. 32 major hurricanes and only 3 landfalls? That's about 8 less than history tells us is "normal". We're going to see devastation like you cannot believe in the next 10-20 years.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! Thank you for that article. I am really shocked. I can't believe that many places are about normal, if not colder! Well, that completely changes my view on global warning, and you may be right, there may be no global warning. We were lucky this year, though. I am not looking forward to landfalls in the coming years. I have a question, though. What was the average number of storms from 1926 to 1969? 10-12 storms? Thanks in advance.

[wxman57]

I have a question, though. What was the average number of storms from 1926 to 1969? 10-12 storms? Thanks in advance.

I didn't say there were MORE storms during warm Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) regimes, I said more MAJOR hurricanes. During the two previous cold regimes (1900-1925 and 1970-1994) there were only 38 major hurricanes in each period. But during the last warm regime, there were <b>83 major hurricanes</b>. But as for total storms, the cold regimes actualy averaged slightly above normal as compared to near normal for warm regimes.

[RNS]

I have a question, though. What was the average number of storms from 1926 to 1969? 10-12 storms? Thanks in advance.

I didn't say there were MORE storms during warm Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) regimes, I said more MAJOR hurricanes. During the two previous cold regimes (1900-1925 and 1970-1994) there were only 38 major hurricanes in each period. But during the last warm regime, there were <b>83 major hurricanes</b>. But as for total storms, the cold regimes actualy averaged slightly above normal as compared to near normal for warm regimes.

I agree...but getting back to the decadal/multi-decadal swings (both up and down) in TC activity...I think we can clearly make an assessment of overall decadal activity trends by looking at the PDO and ATC long-term phases. Though short term deviations from the favored phase of those two factors can disrupt the trend (due to the resulant smaller-scale effects).

I posted this in another thread:

"A great article (as usual) By DR Gray. i would like to add that considering as how we are within the long-term ATC strong cycle...(and long term PDO cold phase suggestive of weaker warm ENSO events) leads me to believe that we will be dealing with an overriding tendency for normal to above normal TC activity over the next 10 to 15 years (or depending on how long those respective cycles last...though given climo they should remain for 15 to 25 yrs with the exclusion of periodic short term fluctuations which are common).

Now this is not to say that we will not have below average hurricane season b/c we will...however i do think the remainder of this decade will feature an overall upswing in seasonal TC numbers in the Atlantic.

the E PAC seasons should be rather inactive in general the remainder of the decade courtesy of the PDO long term cold cycle."

[MWatkins]

In fact, I've yet to be convinced that there is any evidence at all of a global warming. I think global warming could be explained by differences in the way observations are being taken now, vs. in the past. And if there is any such warming, it's almost certainly due to an increase in solar output, not man-made.

With large glaciers breaking up...year over year temperature totals and averages increasing every year...year over year...I think you'd be hard pressed to say that global warming isnt happening. We are warmer...on average than we were 10 years ago...and warmer than 100 years ago. Your point on limited sample size and measurment precision is somewhat valid..but compared to the 17 and 1800's...we are significantly warmer than we were.

Whether it's man-made or not is another question...whether it's affecting hurricane season or not are all very debatable points. It's also off-topic...but debatable. I happen to thin that temperature changes...up and down...are part of a much larger cycle that we haven't been smart enough or around long enough to observe.

In terms of the multi-decadal hurricane activity deal...we're probably in for another 20 years at least before things cool down in the Atlantic.

MW

[cycloneye]

A very interesting and educational discussion going on here about what is causing the upswing in tropical cyclones frequency and more active seasons and after reading the different points of view I change in part my only opinion about this.Now I am convinced that a combination of global climate changes with the patterns in the atlantic like warmer waters and the atlantic thermoline circulation are more condusive for active hurricane seasons and are the causes for these next 2-3 decades ahead that we will see many hurricanes form.And we may see extended seasons such as the 2003 one because of these factors that I mentioned.

[vbhoutex]

The earlier (ana was a fluke)storms and the longer sesaon are a trend I have noticed over the last several years. I do think that the overall pattern is changing to one which will give us longer Hurricane seasons, whether they are made official or not.

[stormchazer]

I do not believe we will see three named storms form outside of the traditional June - November Atlantic Hurricane Season again in my lifetime.

[stormchazer]

Had to add this to answer the "global warming" fears. You can fill up books with what the enviromental fringe does not tell you....

Climate Change During Medieval Warm Period Very Similar to 20th Century Rise in Temperature

By Brian Carnell

Sunday, March 24, 2002

Science published a study last week claiming that a tree ring analysis found striking similarities between 20th century increases in global temperature and the Medieval Warm Period -- a period lasting from 1330 AD to 1600 AD which saw similar increases in temperature.

Researchers examined ancient tree rings at 14 sties on three continents. According to Edward Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,


We don't use this as a refutation of greenhouse warming, but it does show that there are processes within the Earth's natural climate system that produce large changes that might be viewed as comparable to what we have seen in the 20th century.

Not surprisingly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's climate models simply ignore the Medieval Warm Period. The models simply compare current temperatures to those of the immediately preceding pre-industrial societies. It is almost as if the Medieval Warm Period simply never happened as far as the IPCC is concerned (which makes it a lot easier to claim the current warming trend is completely unprecedented and, therefore, must be due to human-induced changes in the climate.

[cycloneye]

The earlier (ana was a fluke)storms and the longer sesaon are a trend I have noticed over the last several years. I do think that the overall pattern is changing to one which will give us longer Hurricane seasons, whether they are made official or not.

Agreed David on those words as we may be seeing an extension of the hurricane seasons for decades to come but of course not every season will be longer than the 6 month period from june 1 to november 30th because of the various factors that are in favor or against every year but in terms of more active and of longer durations of the future seasons yes as this debate has said with the opinions in this thread about global warming mixed with the atlantic thermoline circulation.

[stormraiser]

I agree that we will see more seasons like this, because, like it has been stated, we are in an active tropical phase. The April-December season? I don't know, but to have 16 storms in a season, yes