18z GFS.

[Guest]

Looks like she is starting to pick up on our weekend system alot better now.............Still has a little ways to go imo. But its still early yet and as well atleast now the GFS is starting to pick up on it...............Let the nw trend begin!!!!! ...........BTW ETA is picking up on it as well.

Now let the discussions begin!!!!!!!

[Colin]

Lets get going!!!!

[Lowpressure]

D.C NWS is mentioning the possibility of a winter storm on the late weekend now. Highs in the 34-38 range lows in the 24 -28 range. Could get interesting.

[roarusdogus]

Although many of you think otherwise, I'll tell you this. JB is master of "old fashioned" forecasting. Teleconnections are huge to him and can beat a model anyday. This is how he came up with the forecast of a blizzard in the NE 10 days before the storm occured. This is also how he will be correct with this next system IMO. The ridge in Spain is the key. This will not let the system drift out to sea in a surpressed fashion. I have learned lots of teleconnections from reading and watching JB. I can't disagree here. I'll probably be too far north for this one. This might be one for KOW to watch, although IMO he is too far south.

[roarusdogus]

D.C NWS is mentioning the possibility of a winter storm on the late weekend now. Highs in the 34-38 range lows in the 24 -28 range. Could get interesting.

I think DC will be more rain than anything.

[Lowpressure]

That is what JB said last week and the suburbs got 8 inches of SNOW.

[Anonymous]

Some suburbs got 8 inches of snow.

Dale City/Woodbridge got 2 inches snow, then sleet, then light rain/drizzle, then 2 more inches of snow.

Where were MY 8 inches of snow?


Scratch that..............I'd rather have 36 inches of snow with 25 to 35 mph winds and gusts over 50, then cross-polar flow weather so the snow never melts til late May.....................


-SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!

[roarusdogus]

That is what JB said last week and the suburbs got 8 inches of SNOW.

You must have him confused with a different JB, because Bastardi was screaming up to a foot possible for the I-95 cities from the start.

[roarusdogus]

Looks like she is starting to pick up on our weekend system alot better now.............Still has a little ways to go imo. But its still early yet and as well atleast now the GFS is starting to pick up on it...............Let the nw trend begin!!!!! ...........BTW ETA is picking up on it as well.

Now let the discussions begin!!!!!!!

The GFS is female?

[Hoosierwxdude]

That is what JB said last week and the suburbs got 8 inches of SNOW.

You must have him confused with a different JB, because Bastardi was screaming up to a foot possible for the I-95 cities from the start.

POSSIBLE, key word.

[RNS]

D.C NWS is mentioning the possibility of a winter storm on the late weekend now. Highs in the 34-38 range lows in the 24 -28 range. Could get interesting.

I think DC will be more rain than anything.

DCA/BWI will see a period of significant snow followed by a change to rain (freezing rain or sleet more likely however) then another period of snow on the back side of the system. Further to the Northwest....

Frederick...Westminster...hagerstown...Martinsburg...

Major Snowfall accumulations (6-12" or more) is becoming INCREASINGLY likely. This system WILL be coler than XMAS 02 and the initial low WILL NOT run as far north into the ohio valley as the Xmas events. the coastal transfer (of the H85 low) will take place just inland across eastern VA...this the big citiesshould see a change to PL and ZR until the system becoems strong enough to drag the cold air back in.

The high to the north will supply enough low level cold air for the major cities to maintain frozen precipitation through the entire event and support all snow with the overrunning associatred with the warm air advection ahead of the first low pressure center.

The main axis of heaviest snow is 50-75 miles either side of a line from hagerstown MD to High point NJ and then continuing northeastward to Concord NH. Boston and NYC with the exception of Long Island and the cape/nantucket could get away with allsnow...however as of right now given the questions invloved...i think it would be safer to go with a breif mix in in NYC and BOX as the 850 low jumps to eastern VA. the Surface low will begin to take shape just east of the delmarva (undergo bomb cyclogenesis - yes folks this system will likely be stronger than what the models indicate) and run northeastward to the benchmark by monday evening then be off the southeast coast of Nova scotia tuesday as a VERY deep (970-980mb) gale center.

Cities MOST LIKELY to see in excess of 12"---->

HGR...BFD...MDT...IPT...AVP...ABE...MPO...BGM...MSV...PSF...POU...

[Lowpressure]

RNS- GREAT AND WELL THOUGHT OUT ANALYSIS
You were right on last week and you seem to have this under control. Good job.

[Lowpressure]

Jeb -I am with you fellow Northern Virginian. My suburb Fredericksburg got less than 3 inches of snow total, but my other office in Manassas received almost 8 inches of snow. I am with you shovel-bring it on.

[Colin]

Another 12"+ storm in less than a week? Can't get ANY better than this baby!!!!

[Wannabewxman79]

So when this all started everyone was talking about a major storm for the Southeast.......I am guessing that has changed now.

[RNS]

even if you two dont see the kind of accumulations you want from this next system i quite confident another MAJOR - WIDESPREAD snow event willeffect the mid atlantic and northeast this winter...(yes an event comparable to presidents day is possible as well). for two winters in a row to experience major winter storms along those lines is VERY RARE thouigh NOT IMPOSSIBLE (nothing in meteorology is impossible) and this may be one of those years as well.

I mean look at the facts here folks...the previous winters (following 1995/96) featured no events of such concequence as presidents day or the blizzard of 96. the winters of 1996/97...1997/98...1998/99...1999/00 (w/ the exception of the JAN storm). were very warm and for the most part slnowless...mini streaks of warm winters are commonly followed by a mini streak of severe winters (with few exceptions). the same conclusions are drawn regarding major east coast snowstorms. IMO we have now enetred into a mini-streak of moderate to severe winters.

these mini streaks occur frequently regardless of the over-riding long term forcing from the PDO and ATC (which asie from the solar cycle are the primary drivers of long-term climate patterns).

[wrkh99]

Now if we could only see a Snow storm like 93' in the deep south

[JCT777]

RNS - Nice to see you sticking by your prediction at this point. It seems that most of the other discussions I have read regarding the 12/14-15 storm say that the cold high pressure system will depart (since in their view there is nothing to keep it in place over northern New England/Quebec), and that the secondary storm will be further west. This would bring in warm air and change any snow or ice at the early stages of the storm to rain in most places east of the mountains and south of NY. In other words, ABE would not see 12" of snow, but maybe a few inches followed by ice and then rain. They are keying on a fairly strong ridge in Spain to be the reason why the storm takes a more western track.

[RNS]

Did you read my post in regardto the 0Z GEM which addressed that situation...

[RNS]

also John...i dont read what others have to say I form my OWN opinions (aside from sharing ideas w/ Erica.) and dont deviate from those unless it appears that i/m going to be wrong. then i will change.

And personally...i dont give two poops what others have to say...if i did...you would have seen my previous forecast for the last event change 6 zillion times.