The 00z operational gfs run took the storm out to sea. However, the latest 12z run has flipped back to a rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Its ensemble members show quite a variability in its track, so would not be surprised if the gfs keeps flipping back and forth. However, instinct says that this storm will not go out to sea and should impact us. The Canadian is in pretty good agreement with the latest operational run of the gfs. The ecmwf is somewhat different, showing an intense low pressure but taking it on a more inland track. Latest ukmet has just come in and reveals an inland track similar to the ecmwf.
Enough cold air should be in place, that if the storm takes an inland (ecmwf/ukmet) track, snow or ice would develop during the onset of precipitation before changing to rain. Als0, models show surface high sliding a bit further east, which would allow more of a wind trajectory off the ocean. So even if the storm remains to our east, coastal sections will stand a much better chance of changing to rain, and tend to think this will happen.
The one difference that appears between this system, and our last one is the speed of movement. Right now, upper level winds show a faster moving storm system, so precipitation will not last nearly as long.
GFS will flip/flop over the next three days then have it just off the east coast . Ecwmf is to far west will trend more eastward ukmet 12z run today Dec 10 has the low near virginia coast then northward over eastern New Hampshire . That will not happen because the low will not move straight Northward. The low will move from Virginia coast toward cape cod .
I say that the coast will have snow at the start then ice, then change over to rain . I mean the coast area is south east of I-95 area
North west of I-95 area will have snow then ice with good amount of frozen precip. in this storm . That is inland areas of Southern New England area. and west of I-495 area . Between I-495 and I-128 in eastern mass will have snow then ice and then some rain but could have good amount of frozen Precip. Boston area will have snow then rain and back to snow. NJ will have snow/ice inland then rain But could have good amount of frozen . The southern NJ will have rain including the coast NJ will have mostly rain . Eastern Penn will have snow / Ice with no rain.
http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif
This is from HPC
REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...
..CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...
AS STATED ABOVE...THE SYS FROM 12Z DATA LOOKS WARMER NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR MON THAN INDICATED IN OUR PRELIM RELEASE.
NEW 12Z UKMET WOULD TURN PCPN TO ALL RAIN FROM I-95 SEWD
MON...WHILE SUPPORTING HEAVY SN WELL INLAND.
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GFS is now bringing the storm back Northward now
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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blizzard20
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GFS is now bringing the storm back Northward now
Last edited by blizzard20 on Wed Dec 10, 2003 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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