In our lifetime will we see future seasons like 2003?

Josephine96 · #21 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 3:04 pm

I say yes I will.. Cause I'm only 21 and plan on living a long time lol

Amen to active seasons..

JCT777 · #22 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 3:29 pm

I say no, because the last time we saw a named storm in April and 2 named storms in December of the same year was....long before I was born, that's for sure!

Josephine96 · #23 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 3:31 pm

LOL Jct.. then you may win out

Anonymous · #24 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 5:23 pm

In our lifetime? possible but unlikely. EVERY season is different. If we see another season with 3 offseason storms, it doesn't necessarily make both seasons similar either. One example is that analog years aren't selected just by counting up the total number of storms each season after guessing we would see 15-17 storms and then selecting one. Global warming and climate change doesn't have anything to do with the recent upswing in activity...when you mention climate change it's like talking about climatology changing over a long period of time...climate doesn't change within a decade. Global warming is happening, but if the world is 1 degree warmer than average each month (although it is major) we wouldn't notice. The Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation has a cycle...Dr. Gray has been mentioning the ATC ever since he started writing seasonal forecasts. We probably WILL see another lull in activity for a number of years once the strength of the ATC begins to decline.

Anonymous · #25 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 5:27 pm

With large glaciers breaking up...year over year temperature totals and averages increasing every year...year over year...I think you'd be hard pressed to say that global warming isnt happening. We are warmer...on average than we were 10 years ago...and warmer than 100 years ago. Your point on limited sample size and measurment precision is somewhat valid..but compared to the 17 and 1800's...we are significantly warmer than we were.

Whether it's man-made or not is another question...whether it's affecting hurricane season or not are all very debatable points. It's also off-topic...but debatable. I happen to thin that temperature changes...up and down...are part of a much larger cycle that we haven't been smart enough or around long enough to observe.

In terms of the multi-decadal hurricane activity deal...we're probably in for another 20 years at least before things cool down in the Atlantic.

Agree

Stormsfury · #26 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 7:18 pm

JCT777 wrote:I say no, because the last time we saw a named storm in April and 2 named storms in December of the same year was....long before I was born, that's for sure!

Actually, John .. it never happened before ...

Anonymous · #27 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 8:24 pm

Actually, John .. it never happened before ...

Every season is different. :wink:

#28 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:05 pm

Hey this was in CNN this afternoot and I thought it was a timely observation considering the discussion yesterday:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/12 ... index.html

MW

ColdFront77 · #29 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 5:10 am

Global warming or not, we had a record Hurricane Season this past year... it can happen again; even with more U.S. landfalls, (of course).

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 7:20 am

MWatkins wrote:Hey this was in CNN this afternoot and I thought it was a timely observation considering the discussion yesterday:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/12 ... index.html

MW

Interesting articule there about the global changes in the climate going on.But as I said before it is a combination of those climate changes with the thermoline circulation that is active making the atlantic hurricane seasons more active and of a longer duration than the 6 months from june 1 to the 30th of november.

Josephine96 · #31 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:59 am

The only thing I worry about is the strong el nino factor again if we hav 1.. I can still remember the tornadoes of 1998.. :cry:

AussieMark · #32 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:23 am

the family of F3's that ripped through Central Florida on February 22 1998.

I remember reading about it.

JCT777 · #33 Postby **JCT777** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 1:14 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
JCT777 wrote:I say no, because the last time we saw a named storm in April and 2 named storms in December of the same year was....long before I was born, that's for sure!

Actually, John .. it never happened before ...

I think it actually happened in 1521. :wink:

wrkh99 · #34 Postby **wrkh99** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 12:26 pm

Yes and I think that it will even get worse . Cause we have really messed up our oceans.

#35 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:09 pm

Sure, especially now that sub-tropical and extra tropical storms count.

weatherluvr · #36 Postby **weatherluvr** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:29 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Sure, especially now that sub-tropical and extra tropical storms count.

Huh???

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:32 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Sure, especially now that sub-tropical and extra tropical storms count.

Why you say that extratropicals count???

Derek Ortt · #38 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 2:09 am

1996 did not produce the earliest major on record as in 1957, Audrey became a 4 in June

ColdFront77 · #39 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 3:01 am

cycloneye wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Sure, especially now that sub-tropical and extra tropical storms count.

Why you say that extratropicals count???

Sub-tropical storms were not named until 2002.

As I said above, if it happened this year, chances of it happening in the last 10 to 80 or so years is a possibility.

bahamaswx · #40 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 4:48 pm

Who knows... maybe 2004 will be even more impressive

In our lifetime will we see future seasons like 2003?

Will we see another season like 2003 in our lifetime?

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