00z GEM Weekend System Trend

[montrealboy]

84 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_50.gif

96 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif

108 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_50.gif

120 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_50.gif

144 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdd_50.gif

168 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hde_50.gif

192 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdj_50.gif

216 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdk_50.gif

240 hrs out
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdf_50.gif

[RNS]

The trend seems to support my previous ideas...with the only difference being that the model grossly overdoes the amount of warming even despite the coastal transfer.

[Stormsfury]

The trend seems to support my previous ideas...with the only difference being that the model grossly overdoes the amount of warming even despite the coastal transfer.

Well, the Canadian does have a grossly warm bias at times anyway ..

[RNS]

I know...LOL but having the 1000-500 hPa thickness line over central new england after a transfer of energy to the NC coast is out of control.

[Stormsfury]

I know...LOL but having the 1000-500 hPa thickness line over central new england after a transfer of energy to the NC coast is out of control.

I feel that the low is too close to the coast ... unlike the last storm (a few days ago), the 850mb winds won't be nearly as potent to drive the coastal trough along the Carolinas back slightly inland, unless the low becomes much stronger than what's being currently progged ...

SF

[RNS]

I know...LOL but having the 1000-500 hPa thickness line over central new england after a transfer of energy to the NC coast is out of control.

I feel that the low is too close to the coast ... unlike the last storm (a few days ago), the 850mb winds won't be nearly as potent to drive the coastal trough along the Carolinas back slightly inland, unless the low becomes much stronger than what's being currently progged ...

SF

I do think tis stronger than what the models indicate based on the H5 pattern...but im now starting to think there may be two pieces of energy...thats to say part of the energy associated with the STJ s/w comes out...develops an inital low in the gulf which goes to the coast...while the rest hangs back...phases with the digging PJ energy develops a new coastal low which then comes bombing up as the trough tilts negative.

but until more data shows that im going to stick with my origional idea.

[Stormsfury]

I know...LOL but having the 1000-500 hPa thickness line over central new england after a transfer of energy to the NC coast is out of control.

I feel that the low is too close to the coast ... unlike the last storm (a few days ago), the 850mb winds won't be nearly as potent to drive the coastal trough along the Carolinas back slightly inland, unless the low becomes much stronger than what's being currently progged ...

SF

I do think tis stronger than what the models indicate based on the H5 pattern...but im now starting to think there may be two pieces of energy...thats to say part of the energy associated with the STJ s/w comes out...develops an inital low in the gulf which goes to the coast...while the rest hangs back...phases with the digging PJ energy develops a new coastal low which then comes bombing up as the trough tilts negative.

but until more data shows that im going to stick with my origional idea.

Hmmm, the 18z GFS had TWO pieces of energy dumbbelling around each other (briefly) with the first one shearing out northward and the other taking over ... interesting indeed ...

Well, I gotta call it a night after a ...

[2001kx]

rns
would that be a good thing or bad for us snowlovers in the northeast?

[RNS]

rns
would that be a good thing or bad for us snowlovers in the northeast?

Its hard to say at this point...but the aforementioned details are NOT my call at this time...

Either way everyone north of 35N east of the Apps is fair game for anything from ice to another severe snow event.

Personally i would take the UKMET over the GFS ideas and the GFS over the EC. Pattern recognition is still our best "model" at this time.

[RNS]

UKMET:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

[RNS]

rns
would that be a good thing or bad for us snowlovers in the northeast?

Its hard to say at this point...but the aforementioned details are NOT my call at this time...

Either way everyone north of 35N east of the Apps is fair game for anything from ice to another severe snow event.

Personally i would take the UKMET over the GFS ideas and the GFS over the EC. Pattern recognition is still our best "model" at this time.

I should also mention that either way (w/ you being 50 mi W of UNV) you should see all snow regardless...for you IMO its just a matter of getting down the timing and nailing the accumulations.

[LMolineux]

rns
would that be a good thing or bad for us snowlovers in the northeast?

Its hard to say at this point...but the aforementioned details are NOT my call at this time...

Either way everyone north of 35N east of the Apps is fair game for anything from ice to another severe snow event.

Personally i would take the UKMET over the GFS ideas and the GFS over the EC. Pattern recognition is still our best "model" at this time.

I should also mention that either way (w/ you being 50 mi W of UNV) you should see all snow regardless...for you IMO its just a matter of getting down the timing and nailing the accumulations.

I Could be wrong but the UKMET bombs this out way to late for down here near Philly. GFS sucks ETA sucks also with this. They might be right but its not looking good from DC to Philly just south of ABE. As Far as good snows. RNS please clear this up?

[Guest]

UKMET:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

Now this is one of the better runs of any of the models i have seen yet. Problem i see however is how far this takes the inital low north up into the OH Valley???? Meaning getting ample precip up this way would be hard i would think anyways with that kind of track? Correct me if im wrong please.